Down on the Farm

The acquisition of Tom Gorzelanny does not make me tingle in my special places. (In case you were curious, my special places are Charlottesville, Edinburgh, and Montego Bay.) He's youngish and left-handed, which can be accounted pluses, but also wildly inconsistent both in terms of results and underlying stats. He strikes me as another version of Lannan/Marquis/Livo/Maya, but not necessarily a better one. However, I come neither to bury Gorzelanny nor to praise him.

I'm more interested in what the trade that brought him to DC says about the Nats farm system. As has been noted, Washington sent OF Michael Burgess and pitchers AJ Morris and Graham Hicks to Chicago in exchange for Tom Ter...adequate. None of the three was a consensus Top Ten prospect, though Burgess did sneak onto the bottom of a few lists courtesy of big power and a cannon arm in right field. Coupled with those tools was pitch recognition and strike zone discipline that was postively Pena-esque, and that's Wily Mo, not Carlos. Still, Burgess was rightly recognized as the centerpiece of the return for the Cubs.

Morris and Graham are both good not great young arms who, barring unexpected improvement, will probably max out as big league middle relievers. Burgess has the raw tools to succeed, but will never progress if he can't learn to identify and lay off a curve ball in the dirt. You can argue over whether these three players represent a fair return for Gorzelanny. What you can't dispute is that Burgess, Morris and Hicks, a quad-A slugger and two back-end starter/middle reliever-types are mid-level Nationals prospects.

The cream of the farm system basically begins and ends with proto-phenom Bryce Harper. Catcher Derek Norris has great plate discipline, but needs to reestablish his power and demonstrate the tools to stay behind the plate because his ceiling at 1B is basically Nick Johnson with less pop. Beyond Harper and Norris it's tough to identify any premier offensive prospects.

On the mound, starting pitchers Sammy Solis and A.J. Cole are highly regarded, but so were Ross Detwiler and Jack McGeary not so long ago. More established youngsters like Tom Milone and Brad Meyers have back-of-the-rotation skill sets. Way too much is riding on Stephen Strasburg's rehab and Jordan Zimmermann's continued development.

To be sure, the farm system would be much more impressive if youngsters like Strasburg, Danny Espinosa, Drew Storen and Wilson Ramos hadn't already graduated to significant roles in DC, but great teams have a prospect pipeline. The Nationals have a prospect sprinkler.

The Future Ain't Now. So What?

The news of Lastings Milledge's demotion to AAA Syracuse was greeted in some quarters with jubilation (though Billy Wagner was unavailable for comment). By far the more common reaction though, was exemplified by the initialed Nats blogs of record, OMG and FJB. I'm not picking on Harper and Steven, their sentiments were widely echoed across the Natmosphere. They just did a particularly good job of articulating the argument.

Because you can read the source material, I'll summarize. Milledge, still just 24, is "the future" of the Nationals, has put up decent if thoroughly unspectacular numbers and is "improving." His talent, universally acknowledged, has earned him the right to play every day. By sending him to Syracuse the team is cutting off its nose to spite its face, rewarding inferior players, undermining manager Manny Acta and unilaterally scrapping "The Plan", aka the only thing fans had left to believe in.

That's not an unreasonable interpretation, it's just waaaaaaaaaaaaaay too alarmist for my taste. Lastings Milledge is not the key to the future of the franchise (or if he is, we're in bigger trouble than we supposed.) He's a talented, somewhat knuckled-headed 20-something with defense issues. AAA is made for guys like that. If Milledge can play CF and bat leadoff in Washington, he can surely do so in Syracuse. If he can't, well let's have the Chiefs figure that out for us.

It has been said that Lastings has "nothing to prove" in AAA by virtue of his 277/388/440 performance over 84 games for New Orleans in 2006 at the age of 21. That's a very impressive line, and for a 21 year-old, it's phenomenal. That's why Milledge was considered a phenom. By way of comparison, Roger Bernadina put up a 318/388/464 line in parts of two AAA seasons at age 23-24. Here's the problem. Lastings's line, particularly the batting eye, hasn't translated to the bigs. FJB notes Milledge's 299/355/448 performance over 250 ABs to end last season as proof that he's progressing. Harper has cornered the market on variable endpoint rants, so I'll just say: Maybe. If it's evidence of genuine progress then it should manifest in AAA pretty quickly, right?

The uncomfortable truth is that Lastings Milledge is not one of the Nats four best outfielders right now. Sorry, but it's true. If you're putting together a 4-man outfield rotation based on the Nats current 25-man roster, Milledge ain't on it. You want numbers? How about career OPS+?

Adam Dunn: 131
Josh Willingham: 116
Elijah Dukes: 113
Austin Kearns: 105
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Lastings Milledge: 89

Kearns is easily the worst offensive player of the four, and he still beats out Milledge by a healthy margin. He's also the best defensive outfielder on that list. Dunn and Willingham are here for their bats and ought to be restricted to left field to limit spontaneous fan eye bleeding. Dukes has the tools to be a complete player if he stays healthy and sane, so he's your de facto center fielder.

The competion is between Kearns and Milledge for right field. Milledge's value is all about talent and potential. Milledge certainly could be better than Kearns, but as of today, he ain't. If the talent that so many have seen is really there, a month or two in Syracuse isn't going to make it disappear. If Milledge blows up the International League or Kearns falters, the decision will take care of itself. In the meantime, the Washington Nationals will be running out their best outfield and increasing the odds that they can get something in trade for the guys who aren't part of the future of the franchise.

Now if Rizzo decides to bench Dukes in favor of Corey Patterson, we can start passing out the pitchforks and torches. But with all due respect to my bloggy colleagues, sending a 24-year old to AAA to clear up a logjam, and create more playing time for your four best outfielders is hardly cause for administering last rites to the franchise.

Now let's talk about sending Jesus Flores to AAA and starting Josh Bard...

GUZMANIA! Re-Cycled

Nationals.com

The Washington Post - does the punctuation of your last name change after you hit for the cycle?

Nationals Journal

The Nationals Enquirer

Oleanders and Morning Glories - managed to get away with precisely one word about the blessed event.

We've Got Heart

Your 2009 Nationals Infield is Set

A Guzman is forever.

GUZMANIA! knows no bounds! The 2-year extension is complete, keeping our resident All-Star and mud-baller in town through the 2010 season. Guzie is well positioned to become the last original National. And more importantly, my jersey gains an additional 24 months of shelf life. Score.

UPDATE: $8M per season. Cristian owes me a new jersey.

In less expected news:

Big Wookiee to 'Zona for 2B Emilio Bonifacio

Greg Fiume/Getty Images

H/T to MissChatter for breaking the story. The Rizzo pipleline that brought us such luminaries as Matt Chico and Garrett Mock has been fired up one more time. Big Jon will be doing hard time in Phoenix, most likely as a setup guy for Brandon Lyon in the DBacks injury-plagued bullpen. It is with a heavy heart that NTP bids farewell to the most recognizable National. The 9th inning just got a whole lot more interesting.

Bonifacio, at least initially, is not an inspiring return. The 23-year old is a career .283/.338/.360 hitter in 6 minor league seasons, but is perhaps better known for his blazing speed and slick glove. Emilio was ranked as Arizona's sixth best prospect before the 2008 season by Baseball America. He likely immediately becomes the Nats best middle infield prospect, and a probable replacement for FLop at second next season.

This move, coupled with the Guzman extension and the loss of Rauch will have ripples across the roster, and I'll likely have a few more thoughts on how thing shake out after an impromptu GUZMANIA-inspired happy hour.

Dennis Franz: Calvin Klein model

VINDICATION! I couldn't be any happier for me Cristian! It's been a long, loooong 4 years, but my steadfast faith in the undeniable power of GUZMANIA! has been richly rewarded. Yes, SS Cristian Guzman is the 2008 All-Star representative of the worst team in major league baseball. I may plotz.

Tip o' the cap to Basil's comment for the title and the graphic.