Learning to Love the "Links"

Already this offseason the Nationals have been "linked" in one form or another to free agent starting pitchers C.J. Wilson, Mark Buehrle, Roy Oswalt and Edwin Jackson, as well as potential Japanese imports like Yu Darvish and Tsuyoshi Wada. And that's just the pitchers. The Nationals have also been named as a potential destination for free agent hitters from Prince Fielder and Jose Reyes to Grady Sizemore and Cuban refugee Yeonis Cespedes. Now the Nats aren't going to sign all, most, or necessarily even more than one of these guys. There's a possibility they'll end up with none at all. But even being in the conversation is a sometimes unsettling new reality for Nationals' fans.

A welcome side-effect of the team's status as newly-minted offseason players is a spirited debate among fans. Who's a better fit, Wilson or Darvish?  Oswalt or Buehrle for veteran staff-leader? What's the bigger risk, a Sizemore reclamation project or an unknown quantity like Cespedes?  Hot stove chatter is good for keeping baseball in the DC sports fan's consciousness, particularly now while the Redskins are imploding, the Wizards are locked out, and the Capitals are just beginning their long march toward a playoff berth. If the Nationals are going to become a year-round topic of local sports conversation, now is the time to get started.

Beyond the PR value though, the rumors are a sign that the Nationals have (finally) arrived as an MLB franchise. Fans can be forgiven for thinking that all this chatter is unusual, but really it's a result of the front office doing it's job. Mike Rizzo and his assistants should be making and fielding phone calls, kicking tires, examining all the options. This is what good teams do to get better and the only reason it feels novel is that for the first half decade of their most recent incarnation in DC the Nationals couldn't, or wouldn't participate in the process.

The team's "needs" for 2012 are fairly well defined. Someone has to play centerfield, and someone has to hit at the top of the order. Please, for the love of all things holy, note that these two roles do not have to be filled by the same person. The Nationals have been pursuing a "leadoff-hitting centerfielder" since 2005, with comically disastrous results.

Every thing beyond that is a "want". Rizzo wants to add another veteran starting pitcher, another bullpen arm, possibly a middle infielder and some big bats for the bench. These aren't quite luxuries, but they aren't indispensable either. Between the needs, the wants and the guys they have to find playing time for (Adam LaRoche, eight starting pitchers with 2011 MLB experience), there are a plethora of potential combinations, signings and trades for the Nationals this offseason. That's the biggest reason we're hearing the team's name pop up so often. (The other reason is leverage. Every free agent wants to be courted by as many teams as possible, and the Nats have a recent history of offering up big deals.)

Of course, the team probably doesn't see a fit for every player it's been linked to thus far, and even if it did it won't get them. The Nationals are not the only fish in the sea, nor are they the biggest. But they've finally graduated to swimming with the sharks, and fans will eventually learn to love the ride.

Checking Up on the 40-Man Roster

As you may have noticed, reports of our death, while not wildly exaggerated, were at least slightly premature. C'mon, it's not like anything interesting really happened in the last 3 months anyway. Have you seen the Nats blogosphere lately? It's all Mike Rizzo pledging to go out and fill the same two positions he was pledging to fill last offseason, and the gripping drama of what day Davey Johnson's press conference will be. You're not going to guilt-trip me for skipping that, are you?

In any case, we're back with a quick pre-free agency review of the Nationals' 40-Man Roster, complete with 2011 draft picks. The roster currently stands at 42 and includes two guys who will have to be taken off the 60-day IR in the offseason.

The Lead Pipe Locks (24) - Either by virtue of their contract or their status within the organization these guys will (barring a trade) absolutely be with the Nationals in 2012.

Relievers

• Sean Burnett* - re-established himself as the go-to lefty reliever in late 2011. Signed for $2.3M in 2012.
• Tyler Clippard - shut down set-up man has an argument for staff MVP. Arbitration eligible.
• Yunesky Maya - he's here because he's signed to a $2M major league deal next season, not because of his 5.23 ERA.
• Henry Rodriguez - erratic fireballer turned late inning reliever and possible closer-in-training? Pre-arbitration
• Drew Storen - the Nats young closer is great at what he does, and we have every reason to hope for more of the same in 2012. Pre-arbitration.

Starting Pitchers

• Ross Detwiler* - is 2012 the year Ross puts it all together? He'll get every chance to show it. Pre-arbitration.
• John Lannan* - put together his "best" season in 2011. No reason to think that he won't be smack in the middle of the 2012 rotation. Arbitration eligible.
• Tom Milone* - or, as I like to call him, "John Lannan, Jr.". Will compete for the 5th starter spot and/or ride the shuttle from AAA Syracuse. Pre-arbitration.
• Brad Peacock - see above, though Peacock is more likely to start the season at AAA. Pre-arbitration.
• Matt Purke* - 2011 3rd round draft pick, signed a major league deal. Currently pitching in the AFL.
• Stephen Strasburg - Dominant end-of-season cameo. $4.875M for innings limited 2012.
• Jordan Zimmermann - aka "Strasburg's Road Map". Arbitration eligible in 2012.

Catchers

• Jesus Flores - may not be happy as Ramos' back-up but he's too talented to just let walk away. Arbitration eligible in 2012.
• Wilson Ramos - solid season for the rookie backstop; may get more days off if partnered with a healthy Flores in 2012. Pre-arbitration.

Infielders

• Ian Desmond - which Desmond will show up in 2012: First half (bad) Ian or second half (good) Ian? Pre-arbitration.
• Danny Espinosa - same question, flip the desired answer. First half Danny was a ROY candidate. Pre-arbitration.
• Adam LaRoche - again, not so much by (non-existent) performance but by virtue of his $8M contract for 2012.
• Steve Lombardozzi - got his '11 cup of coffee, but probably better playing every day in Syracuse than coming off the bench in DC. Pre-arbitration.
• Chris Marrero - "top" 1B prospect figures to be a bench bat in 2012 because the farm is filling up beneath him. Pre-arbitration.
• Anthony Rendon - the other 2011 draft pick with a major league deal. Won't see DC in 2012.
• Ryan Zimmerman - because he's the RZA, that's why.

Outfielders

• Bryce Harper - Washington's uber-prospect still has to make his bones in AA, but could be patrolling the Nationals Park outfield in September. $1.75M contract for 2012.
• Michael Morse - only question is where he will play. Arbitration eligible.
• Jayson Werth - an outfield fixture in every sense of the word. $13.57M next year, and it only gets worse after that.

The 99% (4) - They aren't key pieces, but there's no reason to think that (barring a trade) these guys won't be back next season.

• SP/RP Tom Gorzelanny - wasn't a terrible starter, but was much better in limited duty as a reliever. Every bullpen needs a second lefty. Arbitration eligible.
• RP Cole Kimball - hard throwing righty out until at least mid-season 2012 recovering from surgery. Pre-arbitration.
• RP Ryan Mattheus - bad peripheral stats but good results equal a reliever who will get another chance in 2012. Pre-arbitration.
• RP Atahualpa Severino - maybe 2012 will be the season he gets to pitch meaningful innings as the bullpen's second lefty. Or maybe not. Either way he'll probably be around. Pre-arbitration.

The Bubble Boys ( 6) - Poor performance, lack of minor league options, or just wearing out their welcome could spell the end for these fellas:

• RP Collin Balester - never able to establish himself as a long reliever while riding the Syracuse shuttle, spring training 2012 will be make-or-break for the BallyStar. Pre-arbitration.
• OF Roger Bernadina - Roger has never shown enough to merit a starting job, so he'll likely be competing for the 4th OF job with a number of free agents. Arbitration eligible.
• UT Brian Bixler - Bixler does a little bit of everything, but not particularly well. Pre-arbitration.
• OF Corey Brown - a late injury spoiled his 2011 cup of coffee, and he didn't show much at AAA, but he'll still likely get a second shot at Syracuse. Pre-arbitration.
• RP Doug Slaten - yeah, he's gone.
• RP Craig Stammen - will likely compete with Balester for the righty long reliever spot in the 'pen. There can be only one. Pre-arbitration.

 The Free Agents (8) - There are no mutual obligations here, and the team's progress means that many of these (popular) veterans may have played their last season in Washington.

•  OF Rick Ankiel - Doesn't have the bat to hold down a starting gig anymore, but his otherworldly arm, "versatility" and veteran-y goodness mean he's the FA most likely to be re-signed as a 4th OF.
• INF Alex Cora - when your calling card is "better than Brian Bixler", it's probably time to go.
• RP Todd Coffey - Everyone loves a jolly fat man, so look for Coffey to re-sign once he's done with his offseason gig at the North Pole.
• OF Jonny Gomes - could be a bench bat in 2012, but there are better options.
• SP Livan Hernandez - Sentimental favorite, and willing to go to the bullpen, but probably squeezed out in a numbers game. Farewell, Livo.
• OF Laynce Nix - could be a bench bat in 2012, but neither he, Ankiel or Bernadina can hit lefties.
• C Ivan "Pudge" Rodriguez - fan favorite still brings great defense, but the Nats just don't have the ABs for him.
• SP Chien-Ming Wang - Most likely FA to re-sign and try to build on a strong finish to 2011. Contract negotiations are already under way.

Best guess? Wang and Ankiel re-sign, Balester, Bixler and Slaten are cut loose, and the Nats use the 2012 offseason to find a lead-off hitting OF, a left-handed reliever and a infield bench bat to supplement Flores, Marrero, Ankiel and Bernadina.

What Have the Phillies Dunn?

In case you somehow missed the news, Philadelphia today inked their star first baseman to a 20-year, 50 bajillion dollar contract extension. (Okay, it was 5 years, $125M, as though that makes it better.) It's rare to see a deal immediately and universally deplored, but that appears to be happening here. I'm sure someone, somewhere is lauding this as a great deal for the Phils, but I sure haven't seen it yet.

Now, as a Nats fan I'm perfectly content to see the Phillies misallocate resources on an epic scale. Perhaps Philly GM Reuben Amaro, Jr. thinks he's undergone some sort of Freaky Friday body exchange with Brian Cashman, or maybe he figures he'll be out of the picture long before Ryan Howard goes full-Albert Belle on this contract. That's fine. Philadelphia certainly has the money now, and if this is how their front office chooses to spend it, bully. But here's the problem with teams throwing that kind of money around; the repercussions impact everyone.

Craig Calcaterra has a pretty good run-down of the immediate winners and losers in Howard's new deal. Among the winners are Ryan himself, and the free agent first base class of 2011, including Albert Pujols, Prince Fielder and Adrian Gonzalez. Not mentioned by Calcaterra but slated to be a free agent first baseman this offseason? Our own Adam Dunn.

Howard's new contract extension complicates things for the Nats on a couple of fronts. One, it raises the market rate for defensively-challenged slugging first basemen on the wrong side of 30. This will make it more expensive to retain Adam, if the team is inclined to go that route. I'm not suggesting that Dunn will get, or even ask for, $25M/year, but it's not unreasonable to think that the price range for an extension may have gone up from $12-15M annually to $15-18M.

Second, and probably more important, if the Nats let Dunn walk, the cost of replacing him has also gone up. Even leaving aside Pujols, Fielder and Gonzalez, all of whom will likely command salaries equivalent to or greater than Howard's deal, a rising tide lifts all boats. Second-tier first basemen like Carlos Pena will have a new benchmark, and if Adam Dunn goes, the Nats are going to have a big void to fill.

Unless Chris Marrero shows something in AA Harrisburg pretty soon, the farm system's cupboard at 1B is more than bare. It's not just Dunn's offensive numbers that will have to be replaced (no easy task), it's the man himself. For better or worse he is the Nats most experienced first baseman. The idea of inserting Josh Whitesell or Chris Duncan as a stopgap can hardly be encouraging for a Nats franchise angling for a return to respectability over the next few seasons.

So feel free to chuckle at the Phillies today, but reserve a few tears to weep at what their profligacy may well mean for the future of your team.

The Unthinkable

Felipe Lopez is still out there. The best free agent second baseman available is still looking for work. The guy who put up a .310/.383!/.427 line in Arizona and Milwaukee last year, with better defense than Orlando Hudson, isn't going to Spring Training without buying a ticket. He's just axed Scott Boras too, probably in reaction to being unemployed longer than Adam Everett, Kelly Johnson, Alex Gonzalez, Melvin Mora and Adam Kennedy.

I don't like Felipe Lopez. There's no doubt in my mind that he quit on the Nationals in 2007-08. He dogged it, phoned it in, went through the motions, whatever you want to call it. I doubt you'll find a single Nats fan willing to come to FLop's defense. He was playing out of position, on a terrible team, and all evidence suggests that he was a bad seed, on the field and off. But that was then, and baseball makes strange bedfellows.

Mike Rizzo's stated goal for the offseason was to improve the infield defense. Maybe he did that with the Adam Kennedy signing. Personally, I'm not convinced that a 34 year-old 2B coming off his first good offensive season since 2005, (and his worst defensive season ever) is the answer to the Nats infield woes. If Kennedy were bumped to the bench, he'd be an upgrade over Alberto Gonzalez or Eric Bruntlett, and at $1.25M he'd still be making less than Ronnie Belliard was paid to do the same job last season.

Of course, all this is idle blogger chatter. The Nats have expressed no interest in Lopez, and he's certainly given no sign that he's inclined to come back. However, this is a very different team since Felipe left in 2008. New GM, new manager and a boatload of new players. And Spring Training is just around the corner.

Maybe the reason he's still looking for work is that he really is a clubhouse cancer even when he's playing well for a contender. If that's the case then the Nats are justified in staying well away. But if Rizzo is serious about constantly looking for was to improve the club, this is one stone he really shouldn't leave unturned.

Everybody Wang Chung Tonight*

Now this is dumpster-diving we can believe in. Per the Boston Globe's Pete Abraham, (via MLBTradeRumors) SP Chien-Ming Wang is on the verge of agreeing to a contract with the Nats. If this is what Mike Rizzo did with the money he saved on Adam Kennedy, that's alright by me.

Wang comes with an host of question marks, but so does everyone else available at this point. He's coming off shoulder surgery, so there's no way he's ready to start the season (his agent says mid-May, which makes me think maybe June 1st.) Wang's only pitched 137 innings in the last two years, and his numbers last season were atrocious, so we probably aren't getting the 2006 Cy Young runner-up, two-time 19 game winner. Even what he does well could be a problem.

Wang's a groundball pitcher. It may even be fair to say that he's the groundball pitcher. To be successful he needs a good infield defense behind him. The Nats have never had a good infield defense, particularly up the middle. Improving that defense was one of Rizzo's stated goals for the offseason, but the projected 2010 Dunn-Kennedy-Guzman-Zimmerman infield is still a huge defensive question mark.

Nevertheless, it's a great low-risk pick-up for the Nats, a welcome respite from the Bowden impersonator that signed Miguel Batista (Basil's man-crush notwithstanding) and Shawn Estes. It's also a good sign that Rizzo isn't resigned to a 2010 rotation of Marquis-Lannan and a 3-game forfeit. Pitchers and catchers report in just over a week, so everybody have fun tonight!

*Yes, I know how it's pronounced, but if Wang is Wong I don't want to be right.

Nats Eyeing Wang*

Mike Rizzo may not be officially "done" trying to add one more veteran arm to the 2010, but the search has clearly shifted from legitimate free agent upgrade (Jason Marquis) to the Nats old familiar haunt, Trader Jim's Bargain Bin and Retread Emporium, home of the likes of Miguel Batista and Chuck James. Quoth the Rizz, "There is nobody ... out there on the pitching market that is a difference maker." Which leads us to the newest item in the display case, ex-Yankee SP Chein-Ming Wang.

Wang is coming off back-to-back injury shortened seasons, and he's not expected to be ready to start the 2010 season. Add to that the fact that he's a ground ball pitcher on a team preparing to roll out Adam Dunn at 1B and a yet-to-be-determined middle infield (Orlando Hudson is not a defensive upgrade!!1!) and what we have here is an unstoppable recipe for success. Still, Rizzo is probably right. Wang is likely no worse than another rehab project like Eric Bedard or any of the cast of undistinguished fifth starters still available as free agents.

Trading for a starter would probably net a better player, but at the cost of opening up another hole in a still patchwork lineup. In the meantime, Rizzo just lost another potential fifth starter candidate when the Milwaukee Brewers claimed Marco Estrada off waivers. Hmmm... losing serviceable young starting prospects on waivers to clear roster space for fungible vets. Who does that remind you of?

*No, I'm not proud of that, but I'm not made of stone.

Any Orlando Will Do

The Washington Nationals came into the 2010 offseason with a legitimate hole in the roster at second base. Lucky for them, the 2010 free agent class featured an abundance of capable middle infielders. Mark DeRosa, Marco Scutaro, Orlando Hudson and Felipe Lopez (admittedly unlikely to sign on for a return engagement in DC) were among the "big" names, but there were more than a few glove-first types: Adam Everett, John McDonald and Alex Gonzalez for starters.

As you'd expect, the Nats were linked to a number of these guys. DeRosa and Everett were acknowledged targets before they signed elsewhere. Hudson has been a constant presence, and Adam Kennedy surfaced recently as an alternative. But nowhere in all of this chatter has anyone uttered the name Orlando Cabrera. Until yesterday.

Know why nobody talks about O-Cab anymore? Because he's done. He was once (and I mean that literally, one year) a good hitter for a shortstop, but any value in his bat was tied to his position. And he hasn't been a good shortstop for a long time. That's okay though, because the Nats plan to move him to second base!

Orlando Cabrera has appeared in over 1700 major league games. He's played second base 33 times, most recently a 3-inning stint in one game in the year 2000. This is not a case of guy dusting off the old mitt and getting back in the groove. This would be a 36-year old learning an entirely new position for a new team in two months. Cabrera's an athlete and I'm sure he wouldn't embarrass himself, but what exactly is the supposed upside to this move? A Guzman-Cabrera middle infield? Surely you jest.

Maybe it's just an Orlando thing. Orlando Hudson playing hard to get? Sign Orlando Cabrera. In that case, I present the NTP-approved list of Alternative Orlandos (in order of preference):

1. Orlando Jones - he played a wide receiver in The Replacements, he could fake second base.
2. Orlando Bloom - recently named UNICEF goodwill ambassador, could help with international scouting.
3. Tony Orlando - he don't love you (like I love you).
4. Orlando Cabrera - more upside.
5. Or... Lando Calrissian - yes, it's a stretch. Yes, I'd still prefer Billy Dee to O-Cab.
   

Washington-on-Hudson

The Washington Nationals flirtation with 2B Orlando Hudson has none of the glacial majesty of the Mets pursuit of Bengie Molina, though if you consider that it arguably began more than a year ago it may qualify for the longest free agent courtship in MLB history. The quasi-public negotiations have hit all the classic marks:

1. Nats suggest that their obvious second base vacancy could be filled by Cristian Guzman;
   
2. Hudson expresses guarded interest;
   
3. A 2-year offer at a "reasonable" rate is rumored;
   
4. Ridiculously inflated salary demands ($9M/yr) are leaked by one side or the other;
5. Nats respond, "Hey, look over there at Adam Kennedy!";
6. Tony Plush escalates his O-Dawg lobbying campaign;
7. Mutual interest is reiterated and deadlines are hinted at.

The deal may or may not get done, but the consensus seems to be that Hudson represents the "best" remaining free agent option for the Nats, so it's worth taking a look at the guy. At 32 years old Orlando's value is pretty well established. He's an above-average offensive second baseman, but Hudson's slick-fielding days are behind him. He was below average by most metrics in 2008 and 2009 and hasn't been truly great since his last season as a Blue Jay in '05.

Hudson's acquisition would push Guzman back to shortstop, where believe it or not he's basically an average defender when he's healthy, but a Guzman-Hudson-Dunn infield would leave newly-minted Gold Glover Ryan Zimmerman with a lot of ground to cover, and Nats fans should probably prepare themselves for a summer of bloops up the middle and bleeders into short right field. That said, that defensive infield could certainly be better than the Dunn-Guzman-Desmond alternative, and having Hudson on board would give Jim Riggleman and Mike Rizzo both security and flexibility.

As to the question of what sort of contract Hudson deserves, his reported demands aren't actually too far off his projected value. Orlando's consistently been worth 2-3 wins above replacement for the last 5 seasons and there's no particular reason to expect him to hit the wall in 2010. A $9M contract would pay between $3-4.5M per win, a fair value. Of course, Hudson's almost certainly not going to get $9M (certainly not from the Nats), even in a heavily incentivized deal, so it's fair to expect some value from whatever offer he does accept.

The rumored second year? Guzman is likely gone when his contract is up. (*sob*) The organization's middle infield talent pipeline is pretty well empty until you get to Danny Espinosa and Jeff Kobernus in the low minors, well... someone's got to play second in 2011. Like the second year of the Jason Marquis deal, who exactly would the O-Dawg be blocking?

DC Doesn't Need A(nother) Kennedy

As it stands Cristian Guzman is the 2010 Opening Day second baseman for your Washington Nationals. If they can't reel in Orlando Hudson (one year too late) to play second, Plan B appears to be infielder Adam Kennedy. I'm sure Adam's a swell fella, loves puppies and rainbows and all that, but no matter how you feel about Cristian Guzman, Adam Kennedy's got no business playing in D.C. in 2010.

Over at his cleverly moniker-ed Nationals Baseball blog Harper makes the case that Kennedy probably won't be so bad. A (slightly) better bat than Guzman, and a glove that appears to fluctuate wildly between above average and terrible. But is that really a combination you need to shell out free agent money for?

Cristian Guzman will occupy one middle infield postion, that's a given. With that in mind, there are two good reasons for the Nats to sign an infielder: to upgrade the offense or to upgrade the defense (or ideally both, but that doesn't look to be a realistic option.) Hudson would be an offensive plus, but a Hudson/Guzman defensive infield wouldn't do the pitching staff any favors. Kennedy might be a defensive improvement but carrying both his bat and Guzman's would be a real offensive hindrance.

On the excellent Fangraphs site Dave Cameron has a thoughtful article from a few months back about the relative merits of moving Guzman from shortstop to second. For the moment the Nats seem fixated on adding a second baseman, which would keep Guzman at short and Ian Desmond on the bench. There's nothing wrong with this plan, so long as it adds real value to the team rather than just shuffling deck chairs on the S.S. Natanic.

Could Have? Yes. Should Have?...

Now that the details of Aroldis Chapman's $30M deal with the Cincinnati Reds are beginning to firm up, (h/t to MLBTradeRumors) we can say with some confidence that it's a contract the Washington Nationals could have matched. It's a five year major league deal with a sixth year player option, but the money is spread out over ten years and Chapman's 2010 salary is only $1M. Chapman's service time clock will start immediately.

In a vacuum, a $30M major league contract is a big commitment to a still relatively untested amateur free agent. However, given the structure of the deal (average annual value of $3M) it's hardly a crippling financial burden, even for a smaller market club like the Reds. Given that, and the deplorable state of the Nats pitching pipeline behind Stephen Strasburg, should the Nats have shelled out $30M for a Chapman lottery ticket?

Yes.

First, let's deal with the Strasburg comparisons. Stephen Strasburg is better than Aroldis Chapman. He is today and will be for the immediate future; there's no serious debate on this question. Chapman's value lies in projecting what he might do if and when he harnesses his considerable tools. The projections range from total bust through lights-out lefty closer all the way to staff ace, but they're just projections. So paying Chapman more (in total dollars) than Strasburg or anyone else on the team who didn't just win a Gold Glove could cause a perception problem both in the clubhouse and among the general public.

Still, $30M spread over ten years shouldn't hamstring a club like the Nationals, playing in a market like Washington, DC. There's a vast difference between bad contracts and crippling contracts. Nats fans are all too familiar with bad contracts (Guzman, Kearns, Young) but none of those contracts seriously impeded the team's ability to make other moves. Likewise if Chapman flames out or becomes a left-handed Fernando Rodney, Cincinnati's 10-year commitment would likely be seen as a bad deal, but not an albatross that would sink the franchise.

Perhaps more than any other team in baseball the Nats have the potential revenue and readily available roster space that could be combined in a creative deal like the Aroldis Chapman contract. Perhaps Mike Rizzo and the front office concluded that he just wasn't worth the joint financial and time commitment. Certainly the Yankees, Red Sox and Angels, who could have easily matched the Reds dollar for dollar, took a pass. The Nats have a bad track record of being shortchanged by Cincinnati GMs. Here's hoping it didn't just happen again.

Christmas Garland?

Ex-White Sox/Angels/D-Backs/Dodgers hurler Jon Garland is one of the ten (TEN?! - Does that include Oil Can Boyd?) free agents pitchers the Nats are eying this winter. Garland is apparently keeping company with guys like Jason Marquis, Joel Pineiro, Doug Davis and John Smoltz. (Seriously though, if they sign Smoltz don't they at least owe Dennis Boyd a tryout?)

Garland's career numbers are the very definition of unspectacular. A 104 ERA+, a K/BB ratio of 1.6; he's a lot like a right-handed John Lannan. On the plus side he's just 30 and can be predictably projected for 200 innings pitched with an ERA in the mid-fours. For the 2010 Washington Nationals those are #2 starter numbers.

Garland wants three years, the Nats are apparently offering two. I'd be okay with something in the 2 year/$15M or 3 yr/$20M dollar range. The third year doesn't bother me as much as it does other folks because honestly, beyond Strasburg and (maybe) Lannan, who are you penciling in to the 2012 Nationals rotation that's definitely going to improve on a 33-year old Jon Garland?

That said, Garland's not a marked improvement on any of the half dozen other mid-rotation innings eaters still on the maket, so if he want's $10M a year he's been hitting the egg nog a bit early. But he doesn't have to be a "steal" for the Nats to make out well. That Jon Garland would be the biggest free agent pitcher signing in the history of the Washington Nationals tells you pretty much all you need to know about the state of the pitching staff. He just has to offer some stability to the rotation beyond Lannan and (hopefully) Strasburg and he's worth any reasonable price.

An In-Speier-ed Pickup

H/T to MLB Trade Rumors for this minor AP item: The Nats signed former Rockies reliever Ryan Speier to a split minor league deal worth up to $425K. Speier is another reliever Rizzo should be familiar with from his time in the NL West. The 30 year old righty has solid career numbers, though he dealt with some injuries in 2009. He pitched better away from Coors (who doesn't?) but still has an impressive ability to keep the ball in the park. Assuming he's healthy he could probably replace Jason Bergmann as the designated right-handed reliever to face right-handed batters.

More important, Speier is a local guy, product of West Springfield High (Go Spartans!) and Radford University (Go Herpes!). Like former Nats SP "Irish Mike" O'Connor and current reliever Josh Wilkie, (George Washington University alums) Speier brings some much needed home cooking to the DC baseball scene. Major league baseball teams should have a lock on local talent. The Braves perfected the art of scouting Georgia and have reaped the rewards with players like Brian McCann and Jason Heyward.

The Nats have publicly committed to rebuilding scholastic and amateur baseball programs in Washington, DC and that's a great start, but you don't have to look any farther than franchise cornerstone Ryan Zimmerman to appreciate that Virginia has a thriving baseball culture that has produced players like David Wright, Mark Reynolds and the Upton brothers. The Braves, Mets and Orioles, through a combination of geographic proximity and minor league affiliations already have ties to baseball in Virginia. Signing a 30 year old reliever to a minor league deal isn't going to be the key that unlocks the Commonwealth's storehouse of baseball talent for the Nationals, but it's a start.

How Do We Blame This on JimBo?

Pulling a Patterson, the Nats today abruptly cut ties with SP Shawn Hill. Given that the team isn't exactly overburdened with starting pitching candidates, the timing of this move is surprising. Hill was working through his usual array of arm troubles this Spring, but got a clean bill of health (of sorts) from Dr. James Andrews and pitched a scoreless inning against the Marlins.

As with the Spring Training release of John Patterson almost a year ago today, the ultimate outcome is no shock to Nats fans, but it is another disappointment for a talented young pitcher who seems unlikely to ever fulfill his promise. Best of luck, Shawn. You and your sinking fastball will be sorely missed.

In a parallel move, the Nats signed veteran lefty reliever Joe Beimel to a 1-year, $2M deal. Couple the acquisition of Beimel and Julian Tavarez with Hill's departure, and I think it's fair to say that the rotation has leap-frogged the bullpen as the big question area for the team. Joe's already been annointed Manny's 8th inning guy, responsible for bridging the deadly Rivera - Hanrahan bullpen gap. So bullpen, settled; rotation, unsettled.

With Hill out of the picture, the competition for the two rotation spots behind Opening Day starter John Lannan, lefty Scott Olsen and enigma Daniel Cabrera just got a lot more urgent. Assistant/Acting GM Mike Rizzo seemed to suggest that Jordan Zimmermann was less than a lock to make the rotation out of camp, but unless new candidates join Collin Balester and Shairon Martis, it's looking hard to justify keeping Young Hov in Syracuse for two months.

Could Tavarez be a potential 5th starter candidate? Kip Wells? Jason Bergmann? A bionic Matt Chico? More importantly, why do the Nats seem to end up in this position season after season? You're telling me that it wouldn't have been worth it to overpay for Jon Garland just to pencil in 200 league-average innings between Olsen and Cabrera? Maybe a healthy Shawn Hill was always a pipe dream, but by my count, the team's starting pitching depth just went from marginal to non-existent.

What's the statute of limitations for blaming Jim Bowden for things?

Every Time I'm Out, They Drag Me Back In

Toward the end of last season I basically tuned out baseball. The Nationals were horrible and I was fighting for last place in our fantasy baseball league so I just stopped paying attention. It was easier than trying to care. I did watch the World Series but it just took me ten minutes and a trip to Google to remember who won. Then again I might be blocking out the Phillies win.

I spent all winter watching football and I didn't give baseball a second thought. I knew that the Yankees had signed every free agent on the market and I heard that the Nats made an offer to Texeira but it was a blip on my sports radar. Between the ongoing steroid allegations and investigations and the Nats becoming a punchline in the MLB there didn't seem to be any reason to care. I was fully ready to embrace March Madness and the Masters. Baseball could wait.

That was until we signed Adam Dunn.

I'm not foolish enough to think that Dunn is going to be a panacea for this franchise but it's something to get excited about. We finally have a decent bat in the lineup to provide some protection for the guys at the top of the batting order. More importantly, the Lerner's went out and spent some money and it was on the guy that seemed to best fit what we needed. Washington got their man. Boswell over at the Post is even happier than I am.

With baseball being such a long season, a little chemistry and a little luck can make any team competitive. I don't know if Dunn, Willingham, and Cabrera can be the catalyst we need but as spring training rolls around I'm starting to pay attention.

Is It...? Could It Be...?!

STAY TUNED.

UPDATE: It's true! Two sources. Dunn deal.

And Trader Jim finally gets the right former Reds outfielder. Seventh time's the charm, JimBo!

Kearnsy and Dunner, together again. Wily Mo too! What could possibly go wrong? Let the jokes about the Reds outfield of the future begin!

Room for Improvement?

With free agency winding down the Nats are still linked to the reluctant Adam Dunn, while Orlando Hudson plays the waiting game and, per MLB Trade Rumors, Ray Durham is not interested in the Ronnie Belliard special. Additions, should any be forthcoming at this point, will more likely be via trade. Frankly, the Nats don't have space on the roster for another starter-caliber acquisition unless they make a trade or two.

We covered this ground prior to the Winter Meetings, and except for the addition of a few minor league free agents, not much has changed. Fans tend to approach free agent acquisitions in a vacuum, ("Get X! He'll make the team better!), but thermodynamics and the Law of Conservation of Roster Spots dictate that every signing requires an equal and opposite unsigning. So here's what we have to work with:

• Catcher: It'll be Jesus Flores, backed up by Will Nieves or Javier Valentin. Yawn.

• First Base: A healthy Nick Johnson has this on lock down. A gimpy Nick and and my money's on Josh Willingham discovering a burning desire to play 1B. Plan C? Heeelloooo, Dmitri!

• Second Base: Talented youngster vs. Crafty vet. Unless O-Dawg comes on board late, expect Anderson Hernandez to get every opportunity to beat out safety blanket Ronnie Belliard.

• Shortstop: The Man, The Myth, The Internet Movement. The Guz Cycle (new contract, terrible year, injury, injury, good year, new contract) predicts a terrible year. Who cares? He's paid!

• Third Base: Did anyone ever actually ask Ryan Zimmerman if he wanted to be the face of an awful franchise? Just a thought.

• Outfield: Some combination of Lastings Milledge, Elijah Dukes, Austin Kearns and Josh Willingham for three spots. Willie Harris gets the utility nod. Wily Mo? Who knows.

The point is, there's no room at the Inn(field), or the outfield, without moving a few people. So who would you bump to make room for Dunn, or Hudson, are anyone else from the free agent scrap heap?

Over Dunn?

SI.com "journalist" and Boras-mouthpiece Jon Heyman notes that the Nationals contract offer to free agent slugger Adam Dunn has been outstanding for quite some time now and says: "Dunn could still wind up in Washington, but the Nationals' offer has sat there so long he's sent a clear message he'd prefer to go elsewhere." Elsewhere seems to be La-La Land, where Dunn is the perpetual Plan B in the Dodgers pursuit of Manny Ramirez.* Earlier this winter Chicago was rumored to be Dunn's first choice, with "Anywhere but DC" running a close second. As Spring Training approaches and the remaining free agents drop their prices like a pack of Black Friday retailers, I'm wondering if Mr. Dunn would even be welcome in Washington anymore.

When a player comes to a new team via trade or free agency there's usually a honeymoon period. The team waxes rhapsodic about the qualities of their shiny new toy; and the player expresses appreciation for the front office that understood his value, the manager that will put him in a position to succeed, and his new teammates, the greatest group of guys you could ever hope to meet now that "Up With People" has stopped touring. Heck, even Preston Wilson got some positive press in his Washington debut. Dunn's extended free agent tour has thrown a severe crimp in that dynamic.

If Adam says, "I'm excited to come to the Nation's Capital", I hear "Now that all the other teams have taken a pass." If Adam says, "The Nationals are putting together a great squad this year", I hear "Compared to the Long Island Ducks." Because the truth is, if Adam Dunn wanted to be here, and thought he had a good chance of joining a winning team, he'd be here already. If Adam Dunn does end up in DC the standard platitudes are going to ring hollower than usual.

Ideally, you'd like the objects of your ardent pursuit to be equally enamored of you. But as any high school boy can tell you, if you can't be with the one you love, odds are your second choice will turn you down cold too. Even if he's no Mark Teixeira, Nats fans will forgive an awful lot for Dunn's .370 OBP, 40 HRs and 100 RBI. Whether that forebearance extends to being the "safety date" for a defensively challenged strikeout machine with a questionable work ethic remains to be seen.

*NTP takes no official position on the pursuit and/or acquisition of Manny, as we're torn between knowing it would be a complete waste of resources and knowing that we'd go to the park way more often next summer to watch Manny be Manny.

If Someone's Going to Post a 5.54 ERA...

I'd rather it not be Tommy Glavine. Rocket Bill Ladson says that Glavine, a close friend of team President Stan "Nothing to See Here" Kasten, would consider joining the Nats if the Braves give him the boot. Your 2009 Washington Nationals, Plan B for 42 year old pitchers coming off of injuries. Color me less than thrilled.

Glavine managed just 13 starts and 63 IP for the Braves in 2008, logging a 5.54 ERA with a 1:1 K to BB ratio. Hardly impressive numbers, and no improvement at all over Nationals rookie righthander Collin Balester, who put up a 5.51 ERA in 80 innings. But the veteran lefty would reportedly be brought on board as much to mentor John Lannan and Scott Olsen as to provide innings at the back of the rotation. I'm sure Tom Glavine would be a great pitching coach, but that's no reason to give him a spot on the 25-man roster.

If the Nationals want to bring a pitcher like Jon Garland on board for 30 starts, 200 innings and a 4.50 ERA that might be money well spent. Ben Sheets too, would be a welcome addition, though possibly not worth the first pick in the second round of June's draft. But a Glavine, Randy Wolf or Josh Fogg would just be taking up space on a team like the 2009 Nationals.

Yes, you want depth behind a starting rotation of Olsen, Lannan, Daniel Cabrera , Balester and Jordan Zimmermann. But that's exactly what guys like Shawn Hill, Gustavo Chacin, Jorge Sosa, Josh Towers, Tyler Clippard, Garrett Mock and Shairon Martis are. Depth. Rehabing vets, promising youngsters, all providing more flexibility than a 30 or 40-something starter on a guaranteed major league contract. So sign Garland or Sheets, by all means. But if not, there's nothing else out there on the market that can't be replicated from within the system.

Fortunately, the same is not true of hitters. So SIGN DUNN already!

Redding in Blue?

Newsday says Los Mets are on the verge of signing ex-Nats starter Tim Redding to a 1-year, $2.25M contract. Washington cut Redding loose in December to avoid going to arbitration with him, and then signed ex-Oriole Daniel Cabrera for $2.6M.

Getting Redding on a one year, sub-$2.5M deal is a solid signing, though it's arguably less than what Tim would have made in arbitration. (We'll have a better idea once the arbitration offers start coming in.) Maybe the Nats know something about Redding that no one else does. He did crash hard at the end of last season, but he was also dealing with a foot injury. If he bounces back to early 2008 form Trader Jim looks like an idiot... again.

Nevertheless, the team has had some success with the, "Churn through inexpensive free agents, hoping to catch lightning in a bottle and trade them or recoup some draft picks," approach to filling out the staff. From Esteban Loiaza in 2005 to Pedro Astacio, Brian Lawrence, Redding, Odalis Perez and now Cabrera and Gustavo Chacin, the idea has never been to build around these guys, but to milk them for a league average season or two and then sell them to slaughter. There have been some spectacular failures (Lawrence, Jason Simontacchi, Jerome Williams) but the Nats have gotten some valuable performances from retreads on minor league NRIs over the last few seasons.

Hopefully D-Cab can outperform Redding, which would both A) increase Cabrera's value and B) make the Mets look dumb. But I won't be terribly surprised if Tim has at least one more league average 5th starter season in him. It just had to be the Mets, didn't it?

New Year, New Team?

To close the book on the 2008 Washington Nationals, (The book in question being Dante Alighieri's Inferno, if you were wondering.) here's a quick recap of the changes to version 1.0 of the 2009 Washington Nationals:

• Out: 2B Emilio Bonifacio, SP Odalis Perez, INF Aaron Boone, RHRP Jesus Colome, SP Tim Redding and a mess of minor league free agents "headlined" by 1B Larry Broadway.

• In: SP Scott Olsen, OF Josh Willingham, SP Daniel Cabrera, RHRP Terrell Young, and a mess of minor league free agents "headlined" by OF Corey Patterson.

So far the action is less Extreme Makeover: Home Edition and more Curb Appeal. Rumors of big doins' swirl: Adam Dunn!... Orlando Hudson!!... Milton Bradley!?!... Orlando Jones?... the Parker Brothers???, but as Uncle Teddy well knows talk is much, much cheaper than action. At least until the lawyers get involved.

To date all the worst team in baseball has to show for it's offseason efforts is a pat on the head from Scott Boras in the wake of the failed pursuit of the ex-Pride of Severna Park. And if you think the Boras-Lerner Mutual Admiration Society will knock one red cent off the price of Stephen Strasburg's contract come June, well you're probably Jim Bowden.

Call me a bleary-eyed pessimist, but hard experience suggests that we should probably be resigned to a 2009 roster that looks suspiciously like 2008. Young, potentially talented but altogether unproven and more than a little injury-prone. If the Nats are a proxy for the economy (I know, but stay with me) then the hot start, extended mid-year implosion, and disappointing limp to the finish line, could all presage a bleak season to come. Will 2009 be the year the Nats find their true bottom and being the slow, difficult process of retooling to become competitive? Or will artificial stimulus in the form of Dunn, Hudson and/or Bradley ease the pain of transition? Forget Red Sox-Yankees. The defining contest of 2009 will be free marketeers vs. Keynesians.

2009 Washington Nationals: It's not a season ticket, it's an individual mini-bailout!