The Worst-Case Scenario Opening Day Roster

The Nationals' off season to date has been characterized by a marked lack of activity on the position player front. No major free agents (Sorry, Mark DeRosa does not qualify as a blockbuster signing.), no "big" trades; lots of sound, very little fury (apart from certain quarters of the fanbase). Signifying what, exactly?

Unlike seasons past, when the plan for the winter was less roster upgrade than roster overhaul, the Nats approach 2012 with relatively well-defined needs. Foremost among the holes to be filled, a centerfielder and a lead-off hitter, either separately or all in one player. The free agent market for lead-off hitting centerfielders was less than impressive even before Grady Sizemore re-signed with Cleveland, and Coco Crisp is a cereal, not a solution.

Remaining free agents like Cuban Yeonnis Cespedes or trade targets like B.J. Upton are centerfielders, but not classic leadoff hitters. And now the jungle drums are rumbling that Mike Rizzo may wait until 2013 to upgrade the outfield, even as Buster Olney suggests that the team may be eyeballing ex-Nat Marlon Byrd in the Cubs on-going fire sale. And all of this leaves aside the looming, ever-expanding profile of the Prince of Milwaukee, Wisconsin's very own Hamlet. "To be or not to be?" is indeed the question, but not one we're concerned with today.

Today we're looking at the Opening Day 25-man roster as though the franchise was frozen in time on January 10, 2012. No more bench bats or bullpen arms, only what Mike Rizzo has to work with as of right this moment. With that in mind, I give you your 2012 Washington Nationals:

Starting Pitchers: S. Strasburg (R), G. Gonzalez (L), J. Zimmermann (R), C. Wang (R), J. Lannan (L)

First Thoughts - Easily the best rotation since baseball returned to Washington, DC. Three potentially legitimate top-of-the-order starters, and the 4/5 pitchers are slotted below their ability.


Relief Pitchers: D. Storen (R), T. Clippard (R), H. Rodriguez (R), S. Burnett (L), R. Mattheus (R), T. Gorzelanny (L), R. Detwiler (L)


First Thoughts - This bullpen could easily be as good as the 2011 version, but in a perfect world one of the lefty long relievers would be swapped for a right-hander and there'd be one more veteran arm to support the youngsters.


Starting Eight: W. Ramos (C), A. LaRoche (1B), D. Espinosa (2B), R. Zimmerman (3B), I. Desmond (SS), M. Morse (LF), M. Cameron (CF), J. Werth (RF)

First Thoughts - If there were an award for Comeback Lineup of the Year, the Nationals would be strong contenders. The team will need bounce back years from LaRoche, Zimmerman, Desmond & Werth to stay competitive. The inclusion of ageless Mike Cameron shines a harsh spotlight on the Nats' on-going struggles in centerfield.

Bench: J. Flores (C), M. DeRosa (UTIL), S. Lombardozzi (INF), R. Bernadina (OF), C. Tracy (UTIL)

First Thoughts - Equal parts question marks and potential, but if the season started today the bench would once again be a weakness. If Flores and DeRosa have overcome their injuries they'll be solid contributors, but it's unreasonable to expect too much from the rest.

*****

The Nationals have made tremendous progress and fans have every reason to hope for a winning record in 2012, but significant holes remain, and there's no clear-cut path to filling them. Thank goodness Mike Rizzo still has 40 days until pitchers and catchers report to fine-tune his team.

N.B. - There is one glaring absence from the Opening Day roster, a Mr. Harper. First, please observe that this is The Worst-Case Scenario Opening Day Roster. Second, slotting Bryce Harper in as the Opening Day rightfielder and pushing Jayson Werth into center may nominally resolve some questions, but it's not a panacea. Harper's presence in the starting lineup creates problems of its own. But that's a topic for another post.

Learning to Love the "Links"

Already this offseason the Nationals have been "linked" in one form or another to free agent starting pitchers C.J. Wilson, Mark Buehrle, Roy Oswalt and Edwin Jackson, as well as potential Japanese imports like Yu Darvish and Tsuyoshi Wada. And that's just the pitchers. The Nationals have also been named as a potential destination for free agent hitters from Prince Fielder and Jose Reyes to Grady Sizemore and Cuban refugee Yeonis Cespedes. Now the Nats aren't going to sign all, most, or necessarily even more than one of these guys. There's a possibility they'll end up with none at all. But even being in the conversation is a sometimes unsettling new reality for Nationals' fans.

A welcome side-effect of the team's status as newly-minted offseason players is a spirited debate among fans. Who's a better fit, Wilson or Darvish?  Oswalt or Buehrle for veteran staff-leader? What's the bigger risk, a Sizemore reclamation project or an unknown quantity like Cespedes?  Hot stove chatter is good for keeping baseball in the DC sports fan's consciousness, particularly now while the Redskins are imploding, the Wizards are locked out, and the Capitals are just beginning their long march toward a playoff berth. If the Nationals are going to become a year-round topic of local sports conversation, now is the time to get started.

Beyond the PR value though, the rumors are a sign that the Nationals have (finally) arrived as an MLB franchise. Fans can be forgiven for thinking that all this chatter is unusual, but really it's a result of the front office doing it's job. Mike Rizzo and his assistants should be making and fielding phone calls, kicking tires, examining all the options. This is what good teams do to get better and the only reason it feels novel is that for the first half decade of their most recent incarnation in DC the Nationals couldn't, or wouldn't participate in the process.

The team's "needs" for 2012 are fairly well defined. Someone has to play centerfield, and someone has to hit at the top of the order. Please, for the love of all things holy, note that these two roles do not have to be filled by the same person. The Nationals have been pursuing a "leadoff-hitting centerfielder" since 2005, with comically disastrous results.

Every thing beyond that is a "want". Rizzo wants to add another veteran starting pitcher, another bullpen arm, possibly a middle infielder and some big bats for the bench. These aren't quite luxuries, but they aren't indispensable either. Between the needs, the wants and the guys they have to find playing time for (Adam LaRoche, eight starting pitchers with 2011 MLB experience), there are a plethora of potential combinations, signings and trades for the Nationals this offseason. That's the biggest reason we're hearing the team's name pop up so often. (The other reason is leverage. Every free agent wants to be courted by as many teams as possible, and the Nats have a recent history of offering up big deals.)

Of course, the team probably doesn't see a fit for every player it's been linked to thus far, and even if it did it won't get them. The Nationals are not the only fish in the sea, nor are they the biggest. But they've finally graduated to swimming with the sharks, and fans will eventually learn to love the ride.

Meet the New Boss, Etc.

Your clubhouse leader for least surprising press release of the 2012 offseason:

FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE                                                                                                                                     

Monday, October 31, 2011

DAVEY JOHNSON TO RETURN AS NATIONALS FIELD MANAGER IN 2012

          The Washington Nationals today announced they have exercised Davey Johnson’s managerial option for the 2012 season. Nationals Executive Vice President of Baseball Operations and General Manager Mike Rizzo made the announcement.

          Johnson will continue the on-field efforts he began on June 27, when he assumed the Nationals’ managerial helm. 

          “After a series of discussions, it became obvious that the Nationals would be best served if Davey Johnson would continue as manager,” Rizzo said. “Davey’s remarkable connection to the clubhouse and D.C. community during the season’s final three months was well received. His baseball acumen coupled with a proper off-season of planning, including a full regiment of Spring Training, should put our players in a position to succeed in 2012.”

          Johnson’s 2011 Nationals closed strong, winning 15 of their final 20 contests to register the best winning percentage in the NL from Sept. 9 through season’s end. In more than half a season with Johnson at the helm, the Nationals went 40-43 and a D.C.-based big league club finished as high as third place for the first time since 1945. 


*****
 Apart from being 100% expected, this is fine. Any manager who isn't purely a placeholder deserves at least one full season. In 2012 Davey will have his players executing his strategies. We'll see what happens.

UPDATE: WaPo's Adam Kilgore says that current bench coach Pat Corrales is stepping down, to be replaced "by a younger coach who could potentially replace Davey Johnson as the Nationals' long-term manager after the 2012 or 2013 season."

That too just makes sense, as Davey will be the oldest manager in baseball in 2012, and if the Nats have a successor in mind, it's probably good to lock him in, and get him an apprenticeship of sorts under D.J.. If the Nats are serious about contending in 2012 and beyond, they'll want a manager who is familiar with the players, rather than someone who is coming in cold from outside the organization. 

Checking Up on the 40-Man Roster

As you may have noticed, reports of our death, while not wildly exaggerated, were at least slightly premature. C'mon, it's not like anything interesting really happened in the last 3 months anyway. Have you seen the Nats blogosphere lately? It's all Mike Rizzo pledging to go out and fill the same two positions he was pledging to fill last offseason, and the gripping drama of what day Davey Johnson's press conference will be. You're not going to guilt-trip me for skipping that, are you?

In any case, we're back with a quick pre-free agency review of the Nationals' 40-Man Roster, complete with 2011 draft picks. The roster currently stands at 42 and includes two guys who will have to be taken off the 60-day IR in the offseason.

The Lead Pipe Locks (24) - Either by virtue of their contract or their status within the organization these guys will (barring a trade) absolutely be with the Nationals in 2012.

Relievers

• Sean Burnett* - re-established himself as the go-to lefty reliever in late 2011. Signed for $2.3M in 2012.
• Tyler Clippard - shut down set-up man has an argument for staff MVP. Arbitration eligible.
• Yunesky Maya - he's here because he's signed to a $2M major league deal next season, not because of his 5.23 ERA.
• Henry Rodriguez - erratic fireballer turned late inning reliever and possible closer-in-training? Pre-arbitration
• Drew Storen - the Nats young closer is great at what he does, and we have every reason to hope for more of the same in 2012. Pre-arbitration.

Starting Pitchers

• Ross Detwiler* - is 2012 the year Ross puts it all together? He'll get every chance to show it. Pre-arbitration.
• John Lannan* - put together his "best" season in 2011. No reason to think that he won't be smack in the middle of the 2012 rotation. Arbitration eligible.
• Tom Milone* - or, as I like to call him, "John Lannan, Jr.". Will compete for the 5th starter spot and/or ride the shuttle from AAA Syracuse. Pre-arbitration.
• Brad Peacock - see above, though Peacock is more likely to start the season at AAA. Pre-arbitration.
• Matt Purke* - 2011 3rd round draft pick, signed a major league deal. Currently pitching in the AFL.
• Stephen Strasburg - Dominant end-of-season cameo. $4.875M for innings limited 2012.
• Jordan Zimmermann - aka "Strasburg's Road Map". Arbitration eligible in 2012.

Catchers

• Jesus Flores - may not be happy as Ramos' back-up but he's too talented to just let walk away. Arbitration eligible in 2012.
• Wilson Ramos - solid season for the rookie backstop; may get more days off if partnered with a healthy Flores in 2012. Pre-arbitration.

Infielders

• Ian Desmond - which Desmond will show up in 2012: First half (bad) Ian or second half (good) Ian? Pre-arbitration.
• Danny Espinosa - same question, flip the desired answer. First half Danny was a ROY candidate. Pre-arbitration.
• Adam LaRoche - again, not so much by (non-existent) performance but by virtue of his $8M contract for 2012.
• Steve Lombardozzi - got his '11 cup of coffee, but probably better playing every day in Syracuse than coming off the bench in DC. Pre-arbitration.
• Chris Marrero - "top" 1B prospect figures to be a bench bat in 2012 because the farm is filling up beneath him. Pre-arbitration.
• Anthony Rendon - the other 2011 draft pick with a major league deal. Won't see DC in 2012.
• Ryan Zimmerman - because he's the RZA, that's why.

Outfielders

• Bryce Harper - Washington's uber-prospect still has to make his bones in AA, but could be patrolling the Nationals Park outfield in September. $1.75M contract for 2012.
• Michael Morse - only question is where he will play. Arbitration eligible.
• Jayson Werth - an outfield fixture in every sense of the word. $13.57M next year, and it only gets worse after that.

The 99% (4) - They aren't key pieces, but there's no reason to think that (barring a trade) these guys won't be back next season.

• SP/RP Tom Gorzelanny - wasn't a terrible starter, but was much better in limited duty as a reliever. Every bullpen needs a second lefty. Arbitration eligible.
• RP Cole Kimball - hard throwing righty out until at least mid-season 2012 recovering from surgery. Pre-arbitration.
• RP Ryan Mattheus - bad peripheral stats but good results equal a reliever who will get another chance in 2012. Pre-arbitration.
• RP Atahualpa Severino - maybe 2012 will be the season he gets to pitch meaningful innings as the bullpen's second lefty. Or maybe not. Either way he'll probably be around. Pre-arbitration.

The Bubble Boys ( 6) - Poor performance, lack of minor league options, or just wearing out their welcome could spell the end for these fellas:

• RP Collin Balester - never able to establish himself as a long reliever while riding the Syracuse shuttle, spring training 2012 will be make-or-break for the BallyStar. Pre-arbitration.
• OF Roger Bernadina - Roger has never shown enough to merit a starting job, so he'll likely be competing for the 4th OF job with a number of free agents. Arbitration eligible.
• UT Brian Bixler - Bixler does a little bit of everything, but not particularly well. Pre-arbitration.
• OF Corey Brown - a late injury spoiled his 2011 cup of coffee, and he didn't show much at AAA, but he'll still likely get a second shot at Syracuse. Pre-arbitration.
• RP Doug Slaten - yeah, he's gone.
• RP Craig Stammen - will likely compete with Balester for the righty long reliever spot in the 'pen. There can be only one. Pre-arbitration.

 The Free Agents (8) - There are no mutual obligations here, and the team's progress means that many of these (popular) veterans may have played their last season in Washington.

•  OF Rick Ankiel - Doesn't have the bat to hold down a starting gig anymore, but his otherworldly arm, "versatility" and veteran-y goodness mean he's the FA most likely to be re-signed as a 4th OF.
• INF Alex Cora - when your calling card is "better than Brian Bixler", it's probably time to go.
• RP Todd Coffey - Everyone loves a jolly fat man, so look for Coffey to re-sign once he's done with his offseason gig at the North Pole.
• OF Jonny Gomes - could be a bench bat in 2012, but there are better options.
• SP Livan Hernandez - Sentimental favorite, and willing to go to the bullpen, but probably squeezed out in a numbers game. Farewell, Livo.
• OF Laynce Nix - could be a bench bat in 2012, but neither he, Ankiel or Bernadina can hit lefties.
• C Ivan "Pudge" Rodriguez - fan favorite still brings great defense, but the Nats just don't have the ABs for him.
• SP Chien-Ming Wang - Most likely FA to re-sign and try to build on a strong finish to 2011. Contract negotiations are already under way.

Best guess? Wang and Ankiel re-sign, Balester, Bixler and Slaten are cut loose, and the Nats use the 2012 offseason to find a lead-off hitting OF, a left-handed reliever and a infield bench bat to supplement Flores, Marrero, Ankiel and Bernadina.

The Digging and Filling of Holes

Zack Greinke wasn't coming to Washington, D.C. unless Boston's lineup and Philly's rotation agreed to come with him. That simple, seemingly indisputable fact renders all the digital ink spilled on the subject moot. And yet...

It's one thing to be spurned by Cliff Lee and told that the Phillies, Yankees or Rangers are closer to contention. None but the most over-eggnoged Nats fan would argue that point. It's quite another to lose the respectability derby to the Milwaukee Brewers. Taking nothing away from our beer-besotted brethren, the 2010 Brew Crew finished 77-85, 14 games behind the Reds in the NL Central and equally far removed from the Wild Card. They were one game better than Houston and two up on the Cubs. Milwaukee was a whopping 8 games better than the 2010 Washington Nationals. And yet...

The Nats are losers. This is true both from a purely statistical, technical point-of-view (412-599 since relocating before the 2005 season) and in the more intangible sense of having been a ward of the league with a grating carnival barker of a GM who presided over decisions ranging from questionable to side-show worthy. (Come see "Smiley Gonzalez", The Incredible Aging Boy!) At the same time the front office made the reasonable, but also bottom line-friendly, decision to focus on rebuilding the tattered Expo-Nats farm system at the expense of the big league club. Middling success in that effort has not come without a cost, as Harper notes here.

The side-effects of losing can be subtle. It can be getting Jason Marquis when you'd rather have had Jon Garland, or Adam Kennedy in lieu of Orlando Hudson. Sometimes losing doesn't even seem that bad, like when missing out on 7 years of Mark Teixeira forces you to "settle" for 2 years of Adam Dunn. But losing always has consequences. Every loss digs a hole, and it gets deeper year-by-year.

Filling the hole means paying superstar money to attract a merely very good outfielder, while hoping to replace a very good first baseman with an adequate, more reasonably priced fill-in. It means that even if you wanted to mortgage your farm system to bring in an ace, you can't. Zack Greinke knows as well as anyone in baseball what a rebuilding project looks like, from the inside out. When he looked at Washington, he didn't like what he saw.

Maybe the Nationals dodged a bullet. But it wasn't by choice. Unless Mike Rizzo is actually incompetent, or secretly in the employ of another NL East club, he wasn't actively trying to make the team worse by trading 4 or 5 young players to Kansas City. Clearly he thought Greinke would make the Nats better, perhaps even competitive. Clearly Zack disagreed, as had Cliff Lee, Mark Teixeira and who knows who else before him. As a Nats fan that's disappointing but not unexpected.

The fact that it's not unexpected is the problem, and it's one that the team doesn't seem to have an answer for. The Phillies get Cliff Lee, the Brewers get Zack Greinke, the Nats get Chien-Ming Wang. On the verge of the new year, that's a perfect an encapsulation of the state of the franchise. Happy Holidays, Nats fans!

Pay to Win

It doesn't get much easier to understand than this, courtesy of the NY Times:

Vertical axis: Wins. Horizontal axis: Payroll. Notice any correlation? Yes, there are exceptions to every rule (sweet, holy giraffe the Mets suck!) but the trend line is unmistakable. More dollars (in general) equals more wins.

Please print, clip and mail the graphic above to:

Nationals Park
Attn: Mr. Theodore N. Lerner
1500 South Capitol Street SE
Washington, DC 20003

H/T to Mr. Irrelevant.

It's The Lerners' Team Now.

Sell the StanSpeak translator for scrap; Kasten is headed for the door. Boswell's oddly well-timed column has some background that will provide copious fodder for the recently diminished ranks of the "Teh Lerners are Cheep!!1!" movement. Chris Needham correctly assesses the likely fallout.

This is a gut-punch for a franchise in need of a drama-free offseason. Leaving aside the Adam Dunn contract situation the Nationals' roster looks to be as stable as it has ever been. The manager (for better or worse) and GM are both expected back, providing continuity of on-field leadership. But with Kasten, the face of the front office and head cheerleader for "The Plan", jumping ship any number of things could be thrown into flux. Rizzo was a Kasten hire, and Riggleman was Rizzo's choice. That chain of command is now broken. Who's in charge?

Of greater importance, the buffer between the owners and the public is gone. The Lerner-Kasten partnership was a Bud Selig-arranged shotgun wedding that apparently never really suited either party. Kasten was a good soldier, never publicly admitting to an inch of daylight between him and Ted Lerner on decisions. His track record provided gravitas and cover for four years poor performance and declining attendance. But Boswell suggests that Stan privately chafed at having his advice ignored. The next president will be a purely Lerner hire, and will tell us a lot about what to expect for the future of the franchise.

Have Ted and Mark Lerner internalized Kasten's lessons? Will Kasten's replacement be a baseball man given room to operate semi-autonomously, or a glorified accountant? Will the Lerners front the money to improve the major league team around the Zimmermen(n), Ian Desmond, Danny Espinosa and Wilson Ramos even if attendance plods along in the low-20,000s per game, or will they simply be happy to turn a profit on the strength of their publicly-financed stadium?

There's no one left to deflect these questions. "The Plan" has run it's course; the future is now. It's the Lerners' team. Time to watch what they do with it.

UPDATE: Someone break out the Lerner Language Lexicon. It's a "Don't let the door hit you." statement from Uncle Teddy.

Stan Kasten will always be an important part of the history of the Washington Nationals. He was vital to ownership winning its bid from Major League Baseball and his agreement to serve as the team’s chief executive for the last five years has been critical to building the Washington Nationals franchise.

Over his tenure he has positioned the Nationals to become one of the most exciting franchises in baseball and we thank him for all that he has accomplished.

We certainly respect his decision to pursue other interests at the end of the regular season, but will continue to call upon him for his vast knowledge of the game, the league and the franchise. He will remain a friend and valued partner of the team and ownership group.

Theodore N. Lerner
Managing Principal Owner

UPDATE II: In what I can only assume is a brilliant protest move, Jim Riggleman is fielding the worst Washington Nationals lineup I believe I have ever seen for today's 4:35 pm tilt with the Astros.

Espinosa – 2B
Kennedy – 1B
Desmond – SS
Morse – RF
Bernadina – LF
Ramos – C
Maxwell – CF
Gonzalez – 3B
Detwiler – P

Undoubtedly they'll win by 14.

Beyond Bryce

UPDATE: Anyone care to translate this sentence into English for me?

Mike Rizzo: "I seem confident that we should sign the guys that we want to sign out of the draft."

At this rate we're going to need a Rosetta Stone to decipher all the Stan and Rizzo-speak coming out of Nationals Park in the next 48 hours. However, two questions come immediately to mind:

1. Doesn't telling people you seem confident suggest that you are not confident?

2. Who are the guys that they drafted that they don't want to sign?

*****

It's deja vu all over again. With less than 60 hours to go, the Nationals are still on the clock to sign the number 1 overall pick in the June amateur draft. And just like last year, despite having more than two months to negotiate, the deal won't get done until T-minus 30 seconds before the deadline. That's the nature of the process, and unlike Stan Kasten, I'm disinclined to get all angsty about it.

I'm guessing Bryce Harper ends up as the highest paid amateur position player in draft history, raking in a few dollars more than Mark Teixeira got just on principle and to salve Scott Boras's ego. Harper will sign because between a deep 2011 draft class, a new collective bargaining agreement that could completely revamp the draft, and the ever-present risk of injury if he returns to play junior college ball, there's too much risk in waiting another year. But signing Harper won't be enough to consider the Nationals' 2010 draft a success.

Beyond Harper are three pitchers. San Diego State left-hander Sammy Solis (2nd round pick) and high schoolers A.J. Cole (4th round) and Robbie Ray (12th round). These three are the real keys to victory. Harper + Solis = a good draft. Harper, Solis and Cole; a great draft. All four? It's hard to call that anything other than the best draft of 2010.

Three years ago the Nationals were in a similar situation. August 2007 saw the Nats come to terms with three talented left-handed pitchers. First rounders Ross Detwiler and Josh Smoker and 6th rounder Jack McGeary. Here's what we wrote at the time:

Pitchers in particular are a tricky bunch. If 3 years we'll probably be lucky if one of our top 3 lefties profiles as a front-of-the-rotation starter. Maybe Detwiler will never be better than a lefty set-up guy. Maybe Smoker's arm will fall off. Maybe two years at Stanford will kindle an unrealized passion for Buddhism and McGeary will move to Tibet and moonlight as a sherpa with a 92 MPH fastball. It's much, much too soon to say. But that's why you need so many talented youngsters, and why you need to take them whenever you find them.

Still sounds about right. And the same is true of Solis, Cole and Ray. That's why the Nats need to do what it takes to bring them into the fold on Monday night. Solis is probably the surest bet to sign. We also know that Ray was in town for a meeting with the coaches and front office. If the team is serious about continuing to rebuild the farm system, none of these guys will be packing for college on Tuesday morning.

Kasten: Harper in DC by 2013

Stan speaks, sans translator

On Saturday Nationals' President Stan Kasten spoke to fans (and 20-odd bloggers) before the Nats-Reds game. He covered a range of topics from the Philly Phan Invasion to Strasburg-mania. He also touched briefly on Bryce Harper.

Speaking in the abstract, because this was 24 hours before Mike Rizzo confirmed what everyone has known for months, Stan noted that Harper's path to the majors would be greatly accelerated by moving out from behind the plate. Based on his "conversations with baseball men" Kasten observed that a young catcher could take 4 or 5 years to develop.

On the other hand, an outfielder with Harper's bat and physical tools could conceivably be major league-ready in two years. So there you have it. The plan all along was to draft Harper, move him to right field and have him playing behind Strasburg and Zimmerman by 2013. Dave Cameron has some thoughts on the pros and cons of this approach here.

Stan also repeatedly mentioned that "signing quickly" would be key to Bryce Harper's development. Way to play it cool, Stan.

Bryce Harper and the Tao of Rizzo

"Talent without character doesn't work. Your lack of character will make you stumble somewhere along the line." - Washington Nationals' General Manager Mike Rizzo

Never have I seen a clearer statement of Rizzo's organizational philosophy. The Rizzo ethic stands in clear contrast to Jim Bowden's "Tools uber alles" approach and penchant for giving talented but troubled ballplayers a second home. Based on the early results, you'd have to call this a clear win for the Tao of Rizzo, wouldn't you?

Here's the thing, though. The corollary to Rizzo's first sentence is "Character without talent doesn't work either." In fact, I'm pretty comfortable asserting that a lack of talent has tripped up many more ballplayers than have been laid low by a fundamental character deficiency. Given a choice everybody wants high talent, good character players. That's about as uncontroversial as wanting smart, good-looking kids.

The question is, what ratio of character to talent do you need to be a success? More importantly, if character is what we do when no one is looking, how the hell do you measure character? On a practical level, it becomes a circular argument: "Mike Rizzo puts a premium on character, so any guy he brings in must be a good character guy." Likewise, doesn't Rizzo have to say that any player he pursues has good character? After all, if you value character you wouldn't be interested in fractuous trouble-makers.

On the flip side, other teams might rightly suspect that any player the Nats are looking to unload comes with some baggage. (Josh Willingham improved his batting stroke this offseason by clubbing baby seals, you know.)

In conclusion, no one questions Bryce Harper's talent. So the more you see Nationals' front office-types defending Bryce Harper's make-up, the surer you can be that he'll be holding a Nationals' jersey in June. After all, if Rizzo's interested, Harper must be a good guy; and if Harper wasn't a good guy the Nats wouldn't be interested, right?

Stan to Fans: Come Back When We're Good

"[A]s anyone who has watched bad teams turn into good teams, in any sport, these problems dissipate as teams improve, as home teams followers get more numerous and more enthusiaistic."
- Stan Kasten, President, Washington Nationals

Good news, Nats fans: you can stop caring now! The team is lousy, so it shouldn't bother you that your stadium was overrun by barbarian hordes from the north, or that the ticket office is more interested in selling blocks of tickets to opposing fans than they are in providing single game tickets to locals, even season ticket holders. My only gripe with this Adam Kilgore piece is the headline. Phillies fans didn't have to infiltrate Nationals Park; they were invited in.

"We get the attendance we deserve." - Kasten

Sure, they somehow ran out of hot dogs and beer on Day 1 of the season, but you shouldn't care because you shouldn't even have been there! Given that they've done nothing to deserve DC fans showing up, it's no wonder they're both surprised and unprepared when we do. Really, it's a little rude for us to just show up uninvited. For all you know, you could have been gatecrashing one of Stan's prized special events.

"We sell season tickets and book groups all winter long. For every game of the season." - Kasten

Nothing personal, just business. Opening Day is just another game, Phillies fans are just more paying customers. But if that's the company line, why did they suddenly pull the plug on customers from the Jersylvaniware market in February? Did someone stop to consider the optics of having 25,000 booing, battery-tossers serenading the President on Opening Day in the Nation's Capital? Did someone think of the children?! Or did someone in the organization realize that they set the stage for a massive clusterf#$k, but it was too late to do anything about it.

I think our proudest accomplishment gets measured every home game during the season, when we see fans enjoying themselves at Nationals Park. - Mark Lerner, Principal Owner, Washington Nationals

To be fair, he didn't say, "when we see Nationals fans enjoying themselves at Nationals Park." It's undeniably true that lots of fans had a great time on Monday. Lerner and Kasten have always aspired to make the Nationals more than just another local baseball team. Lerner talks about the Nationals as "America's Team" (a moniker that any DC sports fan could tell you has serious negative connotations.)

As I've noted before, Washington, DC is perhaps uniquely suited to become baseball's great neutral site, everybody's house and nobody's home. A Nationals' game could easily become another must-see item on every tourist's agenda. The danger with that aspiration is that you run the risk of turning the home team into the Washington Generals. You'll be world renowned, make millions of dollars and everybody will leave the stadium happy, having seen their hometown "Globetrotters" demolish their opponent.

If that's ownership's vision for the franchise, so be it. But they should tell us so now, so the locals can adjust their financial, and more importantly, their emotional investment accordingly. On the other hand, if the Lerners and Stan Kasten really want to make the Nationals into a world-class franchise, they have to make the team a success for DC, not just a success in DC.

A Complete(ly Embarrassing) Game

Though I live just 150 miles from the city of Philadelphia, I have never been to a baseball game at Citizens Bank Park. And yet, I feel that I can say I have, because I attended Opening Day 2010 at Nationals Park. If the crowd was less than 70/30 Phillies fans I will eat my Replica BP Hat, hundreds of which probably ended up in trash cans immediately after being distributed to the Philly faithful. I'm not sure GEICO's going to be thrilled with that particular marketing expenditure.

The Phillies have a large and vocal fanbase (larger and more vocal since their recent run of success, but c'est la vie.) A good number of transplanted Pennsylvanians live in the DC metro area, and of course it's a relatively easy three hours down I-95 from the City of Brotherly Love itself. So it's not surprising that Philly baseball fans come to DC to take in a game. What rankles is when Washington fans feel like visitors, even interlopers, in their own park. From booing Ryan Zimmerman's awards presentations to serenading the visitors with nicknames and chants, the auditory experience of today's game was all Philly, all the time.

To quote the guy who threw out the first pitch, "Let me be clear." I don't blame the Philly fans. This is what they do. At home, on the road, on their couches, and for all I know, in their sleep. They're loud, boorish, not infrequently drunk, and at least as prone to pick fights with each other as with opposing fans. They've found a home away from home on South Capitol Street, and they treat it that way. The responsibility for the present state of affairs rests solely with the ownership and management of the Washington Nationals.

It was just last year when Stan Kasten went on the radio in Philly and all but begged the locals to turn our stadium into CBP-South. I'd say today's showing means it's Mission Accomplished. In the six seasons since baseball returned to Washington, DC I've been to every home opener and 100 more games besides. I was at two of the three games the Yankees played at RFK and the crowd there was much closer to 50/50. Maybe the Red Sox games were as lopsided, but hell, the Sox do that everywhere.

This was Opening Day. The game that was supposed to showcase Mike Rizzo's rebuilt, revitalized Nationals. I've seen a lot of embarrassing things on and off the field over six years of Nats fandom, but I was never embarrassed to be a fan of this franchise until today. I understand that Washington is a city of perpetual transplants, and local sporting events are always going to be forums for showcasing divided loyalties. I also accept that DC is a front-running town that loves to claim winners as its own. (I grew up here, I'm a big boy, I know the score.) But none of that provides an excuse for what I saw in the stands at Nationals Park today.

From a purely financial perspective, what matters is that tickets are sold, not who fills the seats, or even if the seats are filled. Ted and Mark Lerner and Stan Kasten can probably run a perennially profitable operation catering to transplants, tourists, visitors and everyone but DC baseball fans. Because those folks won't care that the right fielder is a light-hitting career utility man, or that the back half of the rotation is a cobbled together mess for the fifth year running. They won't notice that the farm system, for all the hype and blather about "building from the ground up", really hasn't produced anything all that remarkable. Why should the Philly fans of the world care that while the owner talks about spending money to compete, it never quite seems to happen? Those folks come to enjoy a nice stadium they didn't pay for and root for the visiting team to whip the Nats. More often than not, they leave happy, having deposited a few more dollars in Uncle Ted's alabaster piggy bank.

It's a system that works great, for everybody but the fans of the Washington Nationals. And if there are fewer of us every year, well, can you honestly be surprised? Half the time you can't find this organization with a compass and a map. They've buried a great radio team on a hit-and-miss AM signal. The TV rights are held hostage to an agreement that ought to be a case study on how not to negotiate a media contract. Advertising, to the extent that there is any, is mostly confined to these outlets. I'm not a marketing guy (I leave the flashy stuff to Dave) but it sure looks to me like the Nats are doing everything possible not to broaden their appeal to a wider audience, at least not if that audience is local.

I write this with no particular hope or expectation that things will change soon, or even at all. Lest you think that I'm simply a bitter crank, I'm happy to report that today on the banks of the Anacostia, the sun was warm, the beer (when available) was cold, and an afternoon at Nationals Park still beats a day at the office 100 times out of 100. But if we don't expect more, we certainly can't complain about never getting it...

*****

UPDATE: Also, what he said. And Needham expands on why we're all probably just talking to ourselves. $2,000,000 buys a lot of ear plugs.

Rizzo Drinks in the Afternoon

And starts to sober up around 7. That's my kind of GM.

Just keep him away from the segway.

Guardado Capps Off a Marquis Week

Jason Marquis, Matt Capps and Eddie Guardado aren't going to carry the Washington Nationals to the playoffs in 2010. If Mike Rizzo rounds out the year by signing Orlando Hudson and John Smoltz to multiply Pudge Rodriguez's veteran-y goodness the Nats still won't be playing baseball in mid-October. Measured purely by that criteria the last week was a waste of $11M+. But that's dumb. By that measure teams like the Nats, Pirates, Royals, Astros, Orioles and Padres should just close up shop from October to February. No one trade or free agent signing is going to put any of these teams in contention in 2010, or 2011 for that matter.

If, on the other hand, the offseason is about improving your club, the Nats have had a very good week. Jason Marquis is no ace, but he'll give you 200 innings of league average pitching, sparing Nats fans from the 2010 version of the "Daniel Cabrera Experience." Matt Capps may not be the guy who'll make us all forget Chad Cordero, but I'll be perfectly happy to forget Julian Tavarez and Kip Wells. Eddie Guardado may not be Ron Villone... or maybe he is. Either way, a minor league contract with an invite to Spring Training is exactly the right way to go about finding your next designated "veteran lefty."

That's the important thing to keep in mind about this past week. It's less about the players than it is about the process. Marquis could have been Garland, or Piniero, or Sheets. For $15M over two years it's a signing that can only help stabilize the rotation. Is one year of a 26 year old closer with a career 119 ERA+ worth $3.5M? It is when your alternatives are Brian Bruney, Garrett Mock or the next Joel Hanrahan. Even if he's nothing more than a bridge to Drew Storen, what exactly is the downside to bringing Capps on board?

Rizzo's moves are encouraging because they don't assume that you have to sacrifice short-term improvement for long-term development, or vice versa. Somewhere between Jim Bowden's obsessive focus on the next five minutes and the analytic fascination with the next five years lies an approach that allows for building a winning team and a winning organization simultaneously. It's not yet clear that Rizzo or the Lerners are committed to this dual track approach (a strong bid for Aroldis Chapman would be nice evidence, Mike.) But I'm a Nats fan, so for the moment I'm clingling like grim death to any shred of hope that we might not have to endure two more seasons like the last two before we see that "first great Nationals team."

Non-News Is Good News

On the day that legitimately competitive baseball clubs were deciding whether to offer arbitration to their talented free agents, the only news out of NatsTown is that the team will not be handing out cash to the veteran free agent dreck that clogged last year's roster. Josh Bard, Livan Hernandez, Austin Kearns, Ron Villone and Dmitri Young will all be faced with the unenviable task of latching on with a club more desperate for "baseball players" than the 2009 Washington Nationals.

As "news" goes, this is right up there with the shocking revelations, reported first here on Nats Triple Play, that Nats pitchers will not be pitching underhand next season and the corpse of Honus Wagner will not be your 2010 Opening Day shortstop. Note that the Honus Wagner "story" is still subject to confirmation.

As to whether the team will be handing out cash to the slightly younger dreck that clogged last year's roster, Mike Rizzo has until December 12th to make that call. On arbitration questions NTP mostly lines up with fellow Natmospherians Brian at NFA and Steven at FJB (3-letter acronyms: It's what's hip!)

For nuanced analysis, read them. Here's my take:

Absolutely offer arbitration to: Jesus Flores (Duh) and Josh Willingham (Double Duh.)

Probably should offer arbitration to: Sean Burnett (All my kids are learning to pitch lefty from birth, if not before.)

I'm fine either way: Jason Bergmann (He can swing from bullpen to rotation, he won't cost too much and he's got tenure with the franchise; but he gives up too many walks and gopher balls.)

Don't offer arbitration to: Saul Rivera (look up "fungible") and Wil Nieves (Who?)

Dear God, please don't offer arbitration to: Mike MacDougal (Say you find $100 at the departure terminal at McCarran Airport in Las Vegas. You pocket the money and go. You do not conclude that you're on a "hot streak" and extend your trip to return to the casinos. Trust me on this one.)

Damn the torpedoes, offer arbitration to: Scott Olsen (This is where I part ways with Brian and Steven. I'm a little more optimistic about Olsen's rebound potential and a little less sanguine about the likelihood of replacing that potential on the open market. I'd lump Olsen in with the other second-tier starting pitchers recovering from injury and try to sign him to a comparable deal. Even an arbitration loss should (should) have a negligible impact on the 2010 payroll.)

That frees up three spots on the 40-man roster. You know who'd look good in those spots? Orlando Hudson, Rich Harden and the top pick in the Rule 5 draft. Get to work, Rizzo.

Did The Best 'man Win?

This has been a good news/bad news week on the Nats front. Ryan Zimmerman raking in the overdue hardware: good news. Jim Riggleman losing his interim tag: bad news. The Nats looking to upgrade the middle infield: good news. Moving Guz to second and calling that an upgrade: bad news.

In the warm immediate afterglow of Zimmerman's Silver & Gold tour I'm willing to overlook the fact that the Gold Glove is a fatally flawed award too often given to a well-known offensive talent from a medium-to-large market who's not a total butcher with the leather. I'd prefer a genuine acknowledgement that Zimm is a unique defensive talent, but that's the way the game is played. The Silver Slugger? Well, Soriano got one for his 40-40-40 season in 2006, so it must be some measure of offensive prowess. Good on Ryan for coupling his usual defensive brilliance with a bounce-back offensive campaign.

Now, about Riggleman. I said in the last post that I was prepared to rescind my positive commentary on the nascent Kasten-Rizzo regime if Interim Jim got the full-time gig. Upon reflection I'm not prepared to go quite that far... yet, but I'm not happy about the managerial pick. Others have spilled many bytes comparing Jim Riggleman to Bobby Valentine and ultimately coming to a "six of one/half dozen of the other" conclusion. I won't dispute that. My gripe is almost entirely with the selection process. I can't shake the feeling that the dice were loaded for Riggleman from the day he took over as Manny Acta's bench coach.

In my mind the search for a new manager should start with a clean slate. The goal should be to find the best person to manage the 2010 Washington Nationals. In-house candidates are fine, but if you want me to believe that the best man to take the helm is the guy who was second in command of the previous shipwreck you're going to need some pretty substantial supporting evidence. Jim Riggleman's key qualifications seem to be that he's managed before, he knows the personnel and he's willing to work for what the Lerners are willing to pay.

I'll grant that there's something to the prior manager experience argument, just as there is a benefit to knowing the ropes of any job. But managing before isn't synonymous with managing well, or you probably wouldn't be in the market for a new position. Just recycling the same 30 -35 guys over and over more or less guarantees you're never going to uncover new talent.

Knowing the personnel is definitely a plus; Riggleman's already had his learning curve. But again, if that's a major qualification you're pretty much limiting your applicant pool to the bench coach, the field coaches and one or two minor league skippers. Learning new players is something every manager has to do, sometimes on the fly in the heat of a late season pennant race. Don't you want some evidence that your guy has that skill too?

Finally, the $64,000 question. Is Jim Riggleman getting paid more than $64,000 to manage the Nats this year? We'll never know. Both he and his agent, the excellently monikered Burton Rocks, have been sworn to secrecy. C'mon Jim, D.C.'s a company town, everybody knows what everybody makes, so let's have it. We're you really the best man for the job, or just the most readily available?

I suppose it's possible that Steve Jobs' executive assistant is in the best position to take over Apple when he retires. I'll even allow for the slight possibility that Joe Biden is the second most qualified person in the United States to be President. But the idea that the best manager for the 2010 Washington Nationals, better than Bobby V, Eric Wedge, Bob Melvin, Tim Foli and an unknown cast of dozens, just happened to be riding shotgun for Manny Acta the whole time? Sorry, I don't buy it.

Mike Rizzo's To-Do List

1. Attend introductory press conference. Blink F-U-E-D-E-S in morse code for the camera.

2. Purchase leather pants, Segway.

3. Relocate Dominican Baseball Academy to Montego Bay, Jamaica. Spend next two months establishing "international presence" in Barbados, Ibiza, Phuket, Tahiti.

4. Promote Moose Stubing to Special Assistant to the GM for Silly Names. Apologize for displacing Squire Galbreath.

5. Lay healing hands on Jordan Zimmermann.

Thanks For Strasburg, Now Beat It

If this report is accurate, gratitude ain't what it used to be. That said, whether Mike Rizzo has earned the Washington Nationals GM job is open to debate, and this quote is pretty silly:

“If they let Mike go now, they really will have some explaining to do,” one Rizzo loyalist said Tuesday. “He changed the face of the club, got some of the bad apples out.”

Why exactly would they have some explaining to do? Mike Rizzo signed players, executed trades, negotiated contracts... pretty much what you'd expect a GM, interim or otherwise, to do. As for changing the face of the club, Morgan and Burnett in, Johnson, Milledge, Hanrahan, Beimel and Hernandez out is less like a facelift than like buying a new shade of lipstick.

Rizzo got a middling at best return for Nick Johnson, and may have sold short on Milledge at the nadir of his value. He didn't shed the Kearns or Guzman contracts, despite having opportunities to do so. Yes the Nats signed Strasburg, but they didn't stretch to sign any talent in the lower rounds. The international scouting and player development operations are still underwhelming. Is it unfair to saddle Mike Rizzo for responsibilty for all of this? Perhaps, but it comes with the job of major league general manager.

A competent GM may look like a revelation to the Nats, but competence is a baseline, not an aspirational goal.

(h/t MLB Trade Rumors)

Whose Deadline Is It?

Maintaining the status quo would be "an epic fail." There's no reason for Nick Johnson to be on this team come August 1st. The team cannot take this lineup into 2010. The Pirates have liquidated half their roster and prospects are falling from the skies. Even with all that, Mike Rizzo doesn't anticipate any big moves. Which makes sense when you consider that only Joe Beimel really needs to be shown the door.

L.A. Joe is a lefty reliever on a cheap one-year deal. He is archtypical deadline trade bait, and the third left-hander in a bad team's bullpen. Come October 5, 2009 he's gone one way or another. Joe Beimel is a less accomplished Mike Stanton, who became Shairon Martis in July 2006. The odds of turning a lefty reliever into a young starter aren't good, but it's a gamble you take every time.

Beyond that, it's not fair to say that the continued presence of Willingham, Dunn and Guzman on the roster next week is an unmitigated front office failure. A disappointment, maybe. Josh, Adam and Cristian are all under team control through 2010. Dave Nichols may be right to say that the Nats cannot "come into spring training with Johnson at first base, Willingham in right, Dunn in left and Guzman at short." That doesn't mean that everyone has to be dealt by Friday afternoon. Offseason trades work too.

As for Nick, he's a potential free agent, apparently seeking a lucrative two-year deal. Unfortunately there's no 1B-of-the-future waiting in the wings. The idea of moving Adam Dunn to first is superficially attractive, but if you think watching Dunn butcher 2 or 3 balls a game in left field is painful, imagine him trying to make every catch at first base. As for Josh Willingham, well you don't want someone with chronic back issues crouching on the infield every day.

So trade Joe Biemel. For anything. Do it today. As for the rest, if you can get a Matt Holliday/Jack Wilson/Cliff Lee-type package (quality and quantity) do it. Otherwise remember, the winter meetings are practically right around the corner.

This is How They Get You

Win a couple of series, manufacture a redeeming moment for the guy riding the end of the bench, generate a little buzz with trade deadline talk, draft signing panic and typical ownership ineptitude. All of a sudden, against their better judgment, a few more people are paying attention to the Nats than were at this time last week.

Do not be fooled! The pitching is still a patchwork mess. Defense is a crapshoot at best, and somebody forgot to tell the hitters that you can't bank runs from game to game.

There's no sign that the team is committed to moving its tradeable commodities and no evidence that they could get value in return if they did. Forget the talk about August 31st being the real trade deadline. For the Nats it's July 31st or bust. Washington's hottest properties (Johnson, Willingham, Dunn, Beimel) wouldn't make it through waivers unless they were physically anchored to Austin Kearns and Cristian Guzman.

Maybe the club is showing some improvement, or maybe they just ran into two of the other awful teams in the NL. Either way, the front office has 5 days to demonstrate that their commitment to improving the Nationals is more than just hollow happy talk.