New Look Nats Take Shape

The roster cuts are getting a little deeper now. This morning the team firmed up its starting 5, and made the obvious move to cut down a crowded outfield. With a tip 'o the cap to Nationals Journal:

1. The Wowin' Curacoan and J.Z. round out the rotation. Martis breaks with the big club, Zimmermann gets a taste of early spring in Syracuse.

Analysis: For better or worse Lannan, Olsen, Cabrera, Martis and Zimmermann were clearly the best five SPs this spring, so in that sense they all deserve their spots. Will we regret this when Shairon and Jordan hit free agency a year early? Maybe, but hell, in three years we could all be living underground riding out the fallout of international economic collapse and global thermonuclear war. Carpe diem!

2. WMP hits the waiver wire, destined for AAA or free agency. Either way, $2M is a lovely parting gift.

Analysis: Wily Mo's ticket was likely punched the day Josh Willingham arrived in D.C. Victimized by injuries that sapped his power and an almost comic inability to hit breaking pitches, we'll fondly remember WMP as a bright spot in the 2nd half of 2007. I hope he goes to AAA in an attempt to rebuild some value for next season.

3. Javier Valentin declined a bus ticket to scenic Syracuse, opting for free agency. It's the Snowman vs. the Bard for the chance to back up the fairly injury-prone Jesus Flores.

Analysis: Eh, whatever. It's the backup catcher. Wil's better with the glove, Josh Bard's better with the bat. Either one would be a better choice than Javier.

4. Collin Balester was not born in Syracuse, did not choose Syracuse, but rather had Syracuse thrust upon him.

Analysis: Collin is pretty much the sum total of the Nationals pitching depth. (I do not count Kip Wells, and neither should you.) We'll be seeing him again, either as a replacement for one of his fellow struggling youngsters or as the annual "Good grief, Daniel Cabrera sucks!" replacement starter.

5. Jose Castillo and Corey Patterson got booted to minor league camp.

Analysis: In Corey's case at least it was long overdue. With Bernadina, Maxwell and Langerhans at AAA, I'm not sure there's a place for Patterson even in the minors. Jose, as far as I can tell, has just never been any good.

So Long Screwy, See You in St Louie

An ignominious end to the Charlie Manning-era in DC. With Reagan long gone we're free to unleash the full might of Hinckley.

Langerhanscendentalism isn't dead, it's just pining for the fjords. Make way for the Tao of Rog?

Gal revels in Syracuse is more like it.

"Bye, Everybody!" Bye, Dr. Ben.

NTP's Big 500th - The Shadow GM

Our 500th entry at Nats Triple Play should be the time for sober reflection. Unfortunately we don't do so good at reflection, particularly when sober, so we'll just say, "Holy feck we've wasted a lot of time on this over the last 3+ years!" and move on.

The recent spate of winning baseball has been a welcome respite from what seemed to be an inevitable march toward the franchise's first 100 loss season. But some fans have been quick to note the downside; a hot September could mean no major changes in the team's management structure. In other words, GM Jim Bowden might salvage his job.

The general Natospheric response to this scenario can be loosely characterized as:

Jim Bowden is teh Devil! The team will never amount to anything with him at the helm. He all big splash and no long-term plan. The Anacostia River will rise up and swallow Nationals Park like a modern Atlantis! He has a terrible draft record. He's obnoxious and has strained relationships with a host of fellow executives, agents, players and media. He wears leather pants and rides a segway!?!

Many of the folks who profess that Bowden is a terrible GM also kind of like a lot of the young Nationals in the dugout and down on the farm. On the face of it that's a problem. You can't discredit a general manager by lauding his acquisitions. The obvious solution, as any half decent DC political hack could tell you, is to re-frame the question. For the Anti-Bowden Brigades, JimBo's body of work in Washington is easily bifurcated. The failures are 100% Bowden. The successes? The unappreciated work of a shadowy composite figure. For ease of reference, let's call him Stan Rizzo.

• Bowden wasted millions of payroll dollars on Paul LoDuca, Felipe Lopez, Rob Mackowiak and Johnny Estrada. Stan Rizzo shed deadweight salary by trading Jose Vidro, Brian Schneider and Vinny Castilla.
  


• Bowden signed Dmitri Young to an albatross of a 2-year $10M extension. Extending Ronnie Belliard for 2 years/ $3.5M? Stan Rizzo.
  


• Jim Bowden traded for Jose Guillen, Preston Wilson, Junior Spivey, Brian Lawrence and Austin Kearns. Stan Rizzo traded for Lastings Milledge, Elijah Dukes, Emilio Bonifacio, Alberto Gonzalez and Anderson Hernandez.
  


• Stan Rizzo built the DSL Champion Nationals and the playoff squads from Potomac and the GCL. Jim Bowden is solely responsible for Hagerstown, Harrisburg and Columbus.
  


• Bowden's minor league free agents? Jerome Williams and Mike Bacsik. Stan Rizzo got Joel Hanrahan and Steven Shell.
  


• Bowden jettisoned Jamey Carroll, Rick Short and Brendan Harris. Stan Rizzo... well, Stan hasn't been so hot in the "scrappy white infielder" department either. But he probably called up Pete Orr.

You see my point. If Bowden gets marked down for Vinny Castilla and Pedro Astacio, he also gets credit for Ryan Zimmerman and John Lannan. If he missed on the trade for Kearns and Lopez, he turned Glenn Gibson into Elijah Dukes, which may turn out to be one of those Doyle Alexander - John Smoltz deals (even if I didn't think so at the time.)

There's a case to be made for canning Jim Bowden, and a fairly strong one at that. But it should be made without cherry-picking the man's record. You like Bonifacio's speed, Gonzalez's defense, Flores's arm? Marvel at Zimm's glove, John Lannan's poise, Elijah's scary combination of power and plate disciple? Then you should acknowledge that the First Great Nationals Team will, at least in part, be erected on the foundation laid by Jim Bowden's first three years in Washington.

Lucky 13

Sorry Cubbies, you're not allowed to be the "best team in baseball" from now on. The "best team in baseball" simply does not blow a 4-run lead and lose to the Washington Nationals 13-5. Dropping two out of three at Nats Park in April is one thing. But you're getting awfully close to losing the season series. No self-respecting World Series caliber team drops two sets to the worst team in all of professional sports ever. So be afraid, be very afraid.

Is Willie Harris Belliard or Da Meat Hook?

One of the many pitfalls of running a terrible team is that you're constantly afflicted with the curse of the mediocre player having a career year. In 2007 Ronnie Belliard and Dmitri Young spun Spring Training signings into two-year, multi-million dollar contracts. I'd say the Belliard contract has been a good deal, the Young deal, not so much (even with his impending return to baseball activities.)

Willie Harris is poised to repeat the pattern this offseason. The Nats have expressed interest in resigning the utility man, though negotiations haven't really kicked in just yet. On the heels of his first career multi-homer game, Big Willie is hitting .255/.342/.455 and is tied with Lastings Milledge for the team lead in homers, with 12 long balls. But Harris's career line is a much less sparkling .248/.323/.345, which suggests that this year's power surge is something of a fluke.

There's no question that Willie has value as a left-handed bat who can come off the bench and play all over the field. He's only 30, and if he gets a two-year deal on the order of what Ronnie Belliard got, in the $3.5M range, it could be another nice signing to bolster the bench. But if the Nats go crazy for another average guy having an above average year on a terrible team, watch out.

Crow Calls

Aaron Crow's appearance on Baseball Digest Daily's weekly radio show generated a lot of buzz in the Natosphere. I know for a fact that Mike from Hendo's Hutch was listening in to the Nats former top draft pick. You can listen to the show for yourself, so I won't bother with a transcript, but after hearing Aaron's side of the story I'm inclined to think that this is a deal that wasn't ever going to get done. Crow is where he wants to be, following in the footsteps of his former Mizzou teammate, Arizona's Max Scherzer and hoping for a better deal in 2009. The Nats have two top ten picks next season. Maybe that's the optimal outcome for everyone.

Back Away From the Keyboard. Slowly.

Put down the laptop and nobody has to have their, "face-of-the-franchise, future All-Star and Gold Glove third baseman" reputation ruined. Ryan Zimmerman does many, many things well. Early evidence suggests that blogging might not be one of them. (H/T to Steinbog.)

Now, NTP loves us some Ryan Zimmerman. Even when he was hitting .215 and swinging at the infielders playing around the horn, we were still Zimmerfans. But DC is a tough town for athlete/bloggers. Gilbert Arenas set the bar very, very high and Chris Cooley has blown past it in record time. That's a lot to live up to for a guy who's also expected to carry the franchise's offense and play flawless defense for 150+ games a year.

Mr. Irrelevant is, shall we say, less than complimentary of the Z-Man's inaugural effort. Far be it from us to suggest that a highly competitive professional athlete like Dutch Zimmerman won't be able to hack the high stakes DC sports blogging scene, but allow us a word of advice.

Ryan: Keep up those two homer games and we promise to be enraptured if all you do is retype the phone book letter by letter for the next five months.

Keep Austin Wierd

"Austin in the Middle" is one of the more unorthodox fielding drills you'll ever see.

Sure, he's in a gawdawful hitting funk. (GIDP is not a category where you want to be leading the league.) But he still walks like a man, plays a mean right field and... ummm... on balance, he's loads better than Michael Tucker, I guess. So there's that.

3 - 159

Stay calm, it's a long season. This is just a bump in the road. At least they're in these games and they're still better than last...

They're being installed next to the cupholders at Nationals Park.

Nope, sorry, can't do it. We're well and truly boned. The team is getting worse as the season goes along. The starting pitching is atrocious and the hitting, if possible, is worse. I know fans as sometime prone to hyperbole and overreaction in the face of adversity (see Detroit Tigers, The) but at least the front office is maintaining a calm and levelheaded approa... oh wait, Jim Bowden is in charge. Nevermind.

So that's what that button does...

Wholesale changes are afoot. Cordero up, Bergmann down. Wily Mo back, ??? gone (please be Willie Harris, please be Willie Harris). So much for being patient with guys coming back from injury. I expect Elijah Dukes will be cleared for pinch-hitting duty by Tuesday and Shawn Hill will be your Sunday starter next week.

Meanwhile the sparkling new park plays host to a team that's deteriorating before our eyes. First it was winning close games, then losing close games, then getting good pitching but no hitting or vice versa and now the wheels are coming off. Yesterday Lastings Milledge (who's still better than Nook Logan, dammit) holds the ball in centerfield as the runner goes from 1st to 2nd on a single up the middle. That font of veteran leadership, Paulie LoDown, doesn't even attempt to block the plate as a runner scores from 3rd on a groundout to Ryan Zimmerman.

While all this is going on, fans are not showing up in record numbers. (Anecdotal evidence suggests that opposing fans love the new park, particularly the two solid rows of Braves fans behind me yesterday afternoon.) As people in the media and basement-dwelling bloggers alike begin to wonder why fans aren't showing up management gets defensive and makes panic moves like bringing Wily Mo back early from injury rehab and demoting Jason Bergmann because yeah, he's the problem with the starting pitching staff.

Panic moves inevitably produce stupid quotes like this one:

Whoever pitches best here is going to pitch here. It's a little different than before. That being said, [Bergmann] needs to step it up. He has three pitches. He has enough stuff. He just needs to execute it.

Jason Bergmann was here because he was one of our best pitchers coming out of Spring Training and he'd shown flashes of brilliance when he was healthy last season. Sure, maybe he really is best suited to long relief, but to suggest that he's a less viable option that Tyler Clippard (5.40 AAA ERA) or Collin Balester (5.06 spring ERA) is just not credible. Not that that's ever stopped JimBo before.

As for WMP, I love me some Wily Mo Power as much as the next guy, but he's not the silver bullet solution to this team's offensive problems. Unless Wily Mo can teach Austin to hit balls out of the infield, or give Lastings better pitch recognition than Helen Keller, the Nats are still going to struggle at the plate. Which will probably spark another round of panic moves, which means I'll be writing this post again in two weeks.

News You Can Lose

We've got two starting first baseman?! Wily Mo can hit BP fastballs into Low Earth Orbit!! Bret Boone somehow hopped the fence into big league camp!?! Ryan Zimmerman remains unsigned?!?! Dogs and Cats living together!?!! Mass hysteria!!!!

Welcome to a Very Special Sunday Edition of Stories That Have Been Done to Death. In honor of the presidential campaign season we're going to do this John McLaughlin-style. I'm going to tell you what the issues are, then I'm going to tell you the answers. I may pretend to listen to your input, but I'm actually mentally doing the grocery list. Away we go!

Issue #1: Covering your bases. Yes, Nick Johnson and Dmitri Young both play first base, and only first base. Yes, only one of them can "start." Yes, they're both making roughly $5M a year for the next 2-3 years. So what? NJ is the younger, better all-around player, and it ain't close. But he's as durable as a Faberge Egg. If JimBo trades Meat Hook and Nicky's leg falls off, he looks like an idiot.

DaMeat is the reigning NL Comeback Player, a certified PCI (Positive Clubhouse Influence) and the Designated Tutor for troubled phenom Elijah Dukes. But if JimBo trades Nick and Dmitri dips from his 2007 line (320/378/491, 129 OPS+) to something closer to his career averages (292/349/477, 114 OPS+) while NJ puts up an average Johnsonite season (125 OPS+) JimBo looks like an idiot. Answer: Both stay, Nick starts if healthy and Dmitri has extra time to teach Elijah the finer points of Baseball Sudoku.

Issue #2: New Model Outfield. Is Pena-Milledge-Dukes the wave of the future? Whither Kearns? See issue one above. Four quality players for three spots is a goal, not a concern. Like Nicky, Austin's defense gives him the edge, at least at the outset. Elijah gets time to acclimated to a new team and a new league, without the weight of expectations. Who would you rather see coming off the bench as a PH/defensive sub, Dukes or Langerhans? Answer: 'Nuff said. Wily Mo Power, the 'Edge and Kearns get the start.

Issue #3: Methuselah on the infield. Bret Boone made a surprise leap to the big league camp. Why? Because he didn't totally suck and if you're honestly evaluating a 38 year-old for a roster spot it makes more sense to do it against major league caliber competition. The big loser here is not Felipe Lopez (aka the only SS in camp not named Guzman.) The big loser is Ronnie Belliard. If Boone performs well, Belly is trade bait. Second biggest loser is Willie Harris, but he wasn't making the cut anyway. Answer: FLop at second, Guzie at short, Belliard off the bench, B. Boone off the roster.

Issue #4: 3, 2, 1... Contract. No 6-year deal forthcoming for the Fielding Dutchman? Cap. Pun. runs the numbers. Here's the dirty little secret: Zimm ain't that good yet. His stats declined noticeably in his second full season, and say what you want about park factors, lineup protection and the value of his glove, but Ryan is no David Wright. Not yet anyway. Do you really want to be handing out 4 or 5 year extensions to a slugger rehabbing a wrist injury? Down that road lies Scott Rolen. Answer: Calm down. Before Zimm hits arbitration next spring he'll have a deal that buys out a least one year of free agency.

Bye-bye.

Now Leading Off...

Forget public financing of presidential campaigns, there ought to be a little box on your tax return you can check off and have the government donate money to Baseball-Reference.com. Their latest gadget is a tool that displays all the splits for a given batting slot on a team in any given year. Want to know how the Yankee cleanup hitters did in 2005? No problem. (Why did Rueben Sierra ever bat cleanup on that team?)

That's an easy example of telling you something you already knew: guys who bat 4th for the Yankees are good. Here's a more interesting question: Who was the Nationals best leadoff hitter in 2007? Here's your answer. Surprised? I know I was.

Yes, all the usual small sample size caveats apply, and there are many other issues that prevent him from being a realistic option as an everyday leadoff man. But consider this, the Nationals let this 31 year-old walk (and sign as a minor league FA with the Cardinals) and signed 38 year-old Bret Boone.

Just for fun: the second best leadoff hitter on your 2007 Washington Nationals? GUZMANIA!

Some historical perspective:

• 2006 - Damn, Alfonso was awesome.
• 2005 - Admire Wilkie's April, 'cause there sure ain't much else to admire.

A little fooling around can tell you why Manny tentatively has Guzie penciled into the top spot and why he desperately hopes Felipe returns to form. It doesn't look like Plan C is much of an option.

Roster Under Construction

On the eve of Pitchers & Catchers Day, I want to talk about something that's been bouncing around my head for about a month now. The active roster for an MLB team is composed of 25 players. Usually the breakdown is 5 starting pitchers, 6 or 7 guys in the bullpen, 8 starting position players and 5 or 6 guys on the bench.

National league teams tend to carry an extra bench player over an extra reliever to facilitate pinch hitting, double switches and other strategic concerns. Teams with questionable starting pitching tend to carry an extra reliever to take some of the pressure off both their starters and their bullpen. The Nationals are an NL team with questionable starting pitching, so something's got to give.

The issue is not so much who occupies each individual spot, but how they fit together as a whole. Here's an example: Either NJ or Dmitri is going to occupy first base, and the other will be on the bench. Likewise, either FLop or Ronnie will be playing second, with the other riding the pine. Elijah Dukes seems to be the consensus fourth outfielder going into Spring Training and Estrada will back up LoDuca unless and until Paulie LoDown is suspended, indicted and/or deported. With Aaron Boone in the "Batista-Baerga Memorial INF/PH" role that's five bench spots filled with no left-handed outfielders.

The bullpen is similarly crowded. Big Jon Rauch and The Chief figure to be locked in as primary setup guy and closer, respectively. If Luis Ayala is healthy he'll be there too, as will, in all likelihood "Everyday" Saul Rivera. Again, that's four relievers before you've added a lefty or a swingman. Assuming Ray King really has slimmed down to the point where he only occupies one roster spot that only leaves two roster spots for a lefty outfielder, a utility infielder, a 2nd lefty reliever or a spot starter/swingman.

In the abstract this isn't a terrible problem to have. Nats fans who recall the not-too-distant halcyon days of Jeffrey Hammonds, Joe Horgan and Matt White can be forgiven for smiling at the current conundrum. Too many talented players for too few spots is nothing to object to strenuously. Injuries, trades, minor league options, a lot of things can happen between now and Opening Day that will make this issue moot. But with the start of Spring Training visible just over the horizon, the club will have some decisions to make.

Catch as Catch Can

First, Humberto Cota and Chad Moeller. Then Paulie LoDown. Now Johnny Estrada (maybe). How in the name of sweet, fancy Moses have Josh Paul and Kelly Stinnett not gotten in on this deal?

In their brief history the Washington Nationals have employed a cavalcade of truly awful backup backstops. With Brian Schneider entrenched in the top spot, perennial blogger obsession Gary "PB" Bennett started the trend. Matt "Stop or I'll Shoot" LeCroy popped in to provide some career lowlights, splitting time with "Where's Wiki" Gonzalez and Brandon "Remember Me?" Harper . Robert Fick was a recurring character until he found his true calling as Dmitri Young's caddy. Even Mike "Girl Burner" DiFelice had a spring cameo.

2007 brought a welcome measure of stability, with Officer Schneider and Rule 5 sensation "Come to Jesus" Flores splitting time behind the plate. But Brian's off to wake up in the city that never sleeps and Flores looks increasingly likely to wake up on Opening Day in Columbus, Ohio Harrisburg, PA. That would leave the Nats with a LoDuca/Estrada platoon, surely one of the most belligerent, defensively challenged catching tandems in recent memory. All for the low, low price of $6.25M and a new MLB record low for caught-stealing percentage.

At least they'll both be gone before 2009.

Arbitration for Dummies

Major League Baseball salary arbitration is not fun. In essence, every arbitration case can be reduced to these four phases:

Phase I - Player X submits wildly unrealistic salary demand, sometimes double or triple previous year's league minimum salary. Team counters by submitting copy of previous year's W-2, with an increased indexed to the Social Security cost-of-living adjustment.

Phase II - Team attempts to cast Player X's achievements as A) a fluke, B) a statistical outlier, C) a prelude to his total collapse or D) all of the above. Team proceeds to further minimize Player X's value by listing, in detail, all of the negative aspects of his season. "Sure, he hit 25 home runs but that's more than offset by the four times he got thrown out trying to stretch a single into a double."

Phase III - Player X's agent sets out to demonstrate that Team is helmed by a degenerate collection of slack-jawed misanthropes who not only A) have not utilized any metric of player evaluation more sophisticated than batting average, but B) cannot count to ten if spotted eight fingers and two thumbs and C) failed to correctly identify Player X in a photo array.

Phase IV - Designated Arbitrator, ideally but not necessarily more knowledgable about professional baseball than your average Member of Congress weighs the utterly conflicting evidence before deciding that Player X is either A) the second coming of Joe DiMaggio or B) Felipe Lopez. Salary is awarded accordingly and Player X comes away convinced that Team does not appreciate his service, will never voluntarily pay him what he's worth and may in fact have been having him followed for the past six months.

That, in a nutshell, is why it's a good idea to avoid arbitration with players you don't want hating their team. With that in mind, I've come up with a simple 2-step plan for resolving the Nationals two outstanding arbitration cases. As it happens, the Nats are offering $300,000 less than the salaries being requested by both setup Wookiee Jon Rauch and infield placeholder Felipe Lopez. In the interest of resolving both cases amicably, I propose the following solution:

1. Take the $300,000 that FLop wants;
2. Give it to Jon Rauch.

'Roids Are All the Rage

Now that I've had time to review and consider the Mitchell Report, I can safely say that Paul Lo Duca is a slightly bigger d@#&!&bag than I initially thought. That's about it in terms of grand conclusions. Lots of names I expected, lots that I didn't (Nook?!?) and a few noteworthy absences. I have no doubt that a ton of players who used got away clean, and it's equally likely that a few players in the report were named in error. I'm sure we haven't heard the last of the "Steroid Era" but baseball, and life, goes on.

I expect the reverberations of the Mitchell Report to have little impact on the Nationals, mostly because the only current Nat named is a stop-gap catcher on the downside of his career signed to a one-year deal. As for Nook Logan, did his appearance on the list hasten his departure from the club? Possibly, though I doubt we'll ever know for sure. It will almost certainly make it harder for him to latch on with another club. That's a shame, but hardly a tragedy.

Auditioning to replace Nook as the speedy no-hit 5th outfielder will be Willie Harris, most recently an ex-Brave. Harris will be competing with Ryan Langerhans, NTP-favorite Garrett Guzman and newly signed Rob Mackowiak for the coveted role of lefty bench outfielder. While it's nice to have healthy competition not involving career minor leaguers Trader Jim does seem to be back to his old tricks, snagging every toolsy outfielder in sight. At least we know they're all clean.*

*For now.

Logan Cleared for Takeoff

As the deadline to offer contracts approaches Mark Zuckerman of the Washington Times has word that the Nationals will not resign OF Nook Logan and SP Mike O'Connor. Nook was destined to be the odd man out in the game of musical outfielders following the spree of acquisitions at the Winter Meetings. Nook will most likely try to latch on as a 4th or 5th outfielder on another National League club.

O'Connor, a GW alum, struggled to recover from offseason elbow surgery before the 2007 season and never really got his groove back in the minors, managing an abysmal 7.07 ERA in Double A ball. Cutting ties with O'Connor is just more evidence of the Nats improved pitching depth, as Matt Chico, John Lannan and Ross Detwiler all have more upside as lefty starters than Irish Mike, who will be fondly remembered for posting a 4.80 ERA over 105 innings as part of the patchwork 2006 rotation.

Three pitchers agreed to one-year deals, thereby avoiding arbitration: setup man Luis "El Guapo" Ayala, rehabbing righty reliever Ryan Wagner and perennial injury risk SP John Patterson. All the other arb-eligible Nats, including INF Felipe Lopez, will apparently be offered contracts. No real surprise there. Lopez, Tim Redding, Jon Rauch, Jesus Colome and Chad Cordero aren't going to strain the budget. Only FLop and The Chief figure to make more than a couple million in arbitration.

Cutting loose Nook and Irish Mike frees up two more spots on the 40-man roster, spots that might be used to sign players non-tendered by other clubs. Here's the official press release.

Roster BINGO

Austin Kearns	Matt Whitney	Josh Whitesell	Elijah Dukes	Ryan Langerhans
Aaron Boone	Ryan Zimmerman	Felipe Lopez	Roger Bernadina	Justin Maxwell
Jesus Flores	Kory Casto	Dmitri Young	Lastings Milledge	Wily Mo Pena
Nook Logan	Ronnie Belliard	Garrett Guzman	Nick Johnson	Cristian Guzman

The grid above contains the names of the twenty position players currently on the Nationals 40-man roster. All position players on the roster are represented. See if you can draw one straight line (horizontal, vertical or diagonal) through any four who will be on the 25-man roster on Opening Day 2008.

Since BINGO is technically played on a 5 x 5 square grid, feel free to use the backup catcher as a floating free space at the bottom of any column. Who knows, this may be exactly how Trader Jim and Manny make roster decisions. Enjoy!

Putting Up (With) Our Dukes

You gotta give Jim Bowden this: He is the bull terrier of GMs. Once he gets hold of a player he just will not let go. First Wily Mo Pena, then Lastings Milledge, now Rays OF Elijah Dukes. Bowden acquired Dukes from Tampa this afternoon in exchange for a player to be named later (PTBNL). [EDIT: PTBNL is Vermont LHP Glenn Gibson. Ouch, that's a little too much to pay.]

I've written a bit about Dukes before and my initial reaction to this deal can be summed up thusly. But what's done is done. Not wanting Elijah Dukes on the team will not make him go away. And this is the quintessential "something for nothing" transaction. [EDIT: Not quite nothing. Gibson has good command of all his pitches. He's a talent. I'm liking this deal a lot less.] From a purely baseball perspective, it would be irresponsible not to do this deal. Of course, acquiring Elijah Dukes isn't a purely baseball transaction. Suffice it to say Dukes' issues make Lasting Milledge's incidents seem puckish and endearing by comparison.

Dukes' travails have been well-chronicled, and I'm not going to rehash them here. To me they demonstrate a pattern of irresponsible and dangerous behavior both on and off the field. But people can change, and maybe this will be the wake-up call Dukes needs. That's a hope, not a rationalization.

His talent is undeniable. Dukes wrecked minor league pitching, hitting .293/.401!/.488 as a 22-year old in AAA and posting a career .284/.364/.484 line over 4 minor league seasons. He struggled at the plate (and other places) in 2007, slumping to .190/.318/.391 in 52 games before being suspended from the team. He's a legitimate outfield defender as well. Teamed with Milledge, Austin Kearns and Wily Mo Pena, Dukes gives the Nationals four big league outfielders under the age of twenty seven.

As an objective observer this deal is another steal for Bowden and company. [EDIT: A win, but not a mugging, and under the circumstances it should have been a mugging.] However lopsided it ends up, it's a deal that makes sense for both teams. Dukes absolutely had to have a change of scenery, he was done in Tampa Bay. And the Nationals need young talent, the kind that doesn't come cheap unless it has a "damaged goods" sticker firmly attached. So, in the abstract it's a win-win.

As a Nats fan this is the kind of deal where I just hold my nose and pray for the best, both for Elijah Dukes and for the Washington Nationals. Caveat emptor, you get what you pay for and all that.

Farewell to Two of the Good Guys

WFAN out of New York is reporting (and Newsday confirms) that the Nats have sent OF Ryan Church and C Brian Schneider to the Mets for OF Lastings Milledge. This is easily the biggest deal the Nats have pulled off since acquiring Austin Kearns, Felipe Lopez and Ryan Wagner from the Reds in 2006.

Ryan Church has been the sacred cow of the Natosphere for almost as long as there's been a Natosphere. (Just look for Ryan Church within two words of "sacred cow," you'll find it.) Not too long ago I argued that Church was a better fit in centerfield than almost any of the free agent options. After all a CF with a .271/.348/.462 career line isn't a Hall-of-Famer, but it's nothing to sneeze at, either. For a team on a budget, which the Nats insist on being, that kind of production from center is downright valuable.

The problem is, the team/front office never seemed to see Ryan the way us basement-dwellers did. He was too fragile, too surly, not enough of a pure speed and defense guy to be a prototypical fly-catching fielder. When you lose time to Nook Logan and Brandon Watson you know it's just not your franchise. So, though we've always liked Church, there's a small part of us that's happy he's out of the organization. Of course, being crucified by the NY press for misplaying a flyball probably makes being subtly needled by the front office a positively enjoyable experience.

Officer Schneider just always struck us as one all right dude. Blue collar, lunch-pail, catch and throw, no hit backstop. The kind of catcher a struggling, scrappy team ought to have. And whatever proportion of credit or blame he deserves for the rollcoaster pitching of 2005-2007 he gets points for going out there almost every day and cleaning up the slop. Brian was never great, but he was never taking playing time from anyone better either. Hopefully working with a mostly veteran staff in NY will take some of the pressure off and let him get his stroke back. Just remember Brian, next time Pedro plunks somebody we're coming after you.

Of course, this leaves a sizable hole at catcher (Are You There, Jesus?), and doesn't really solve the CF issue (Milledge? Kearns? Pena? teh Nook? ::shudder::), but for now, we'll just say goodbye to two more of the original 2005 Nationals, and farewell and good luck to two of the good guys.

Welcome aboard, Lastings Milledge!

P.S. - The Mets blogs are almost universally up-in-arms, though in fairness they've been on the verge of up-in-armedness all offseason. Blowing a playoff spot on the last weekend of the season'll do that to you.

UPDATE: RETURN OF THE KING!

It's Lastings Milledge + 1. The Nats are on the verge of re-signing lefty relief pitcher (and designated "man-planet") Ray King. The deal is a non-guaranteed minor league contract with an $850K payday if The Burger King makes the 25-man roster. His overall 2007 record was nothing to write home about but "Sugar" Ray was still brutal on lefties, to the tune of .187/.276/.347.

King has vowed to report to Spring Training in the best shape of his career. Perfectly spherical, perhaps? It could be just a coincidence that this news comes on the same day that Officer Schneider, chief of the Skittle Police, was shipped off to the Big (Organically Grown) Apple, but I doubt it. In any case, Lastings may want to use that vaunted speed to guarantee he's first in line for the buffet. Lord knows you don't want to end up behind Ray and Dmitri.

Where's Wily?

It certainly was an eventful weekend for Wily Mo. He went from the being the short half of a leftfield platoon with Ryan Church to being the starting leftfielder (last time I checked Orlando Hernandez is not left-handed) to being the starting rightfielder. All while putting up a .286/.444/.857! line in his first two games and notching his first Nationals homerun.

To make this work Austin Kearns becomes our new centerfielder, and Ryan Church, after what amounts to two days off, is starting in leftfield again. Finally, after all that, Nook Logan ends up where he always should have been. On the bench as a 4th OF/pinch runner/defensive sub. That's the theory anyway. Will it hold up?

Wily Mo has played more games in rightfield than left or center, but the stats suggest, contrary to what you'd expect, that he's a slightly better defensive centerfielder. Of course, that doesn't factor in the particular challenges of playing center in RFK, at least for 17 more games. For his part, Austin Kearns has logged 60 career games in CF (compared to 578 in right) and grades out as an above average centerfielder.

Given that Church-Kearns-Pena is undeniably the best offensive outfield the team has had all season, it's probably the best use of available defensive resources as well. Playing from center Kearns should be able to compensate for at least a little of Pena's lack of range in right. There will undoubtedly be times when we'll miss Logan's ability to track down a fly ball in the gap, and probably also times when we'll miss Kearns' jump and arm in right. But if the goal is to squeeze some much needed offense out of the outfield, this is probably the best way to go about it.

Wily Mo's arrival set in motion a chain of events that included the designation for assignment of OF Ryan Langerhans, erstwhile focus of the nascent LANGERHANSCENDENTALIST! movement. I freely admit that this campaign was either ahead of, or way, way behind its time. Still, I hope that if Ryan clears waivers he consents to a trip down to Columbus where he can play every day, work on straightening out his swing, and give himself a shot at playing his way back into the Nationals plans. If nothing else I know that I prefer my 4th outfielder/defensive sub to have a little pop in his bat.

UP NEXT: Jesus Saves... the crumbling bullpen or Get Carter?

Wily Mo Better Be Good News

Lord, Jim Bowden loves him some Toolsy Former Reds Outfielders, don't he? Media out of Boston is reporting (and the Nats now confirm) that Trader Jim has snagged OF Wily Mo Pena and cash from the Red Sox for the ever popular PTBNL (player to be named later.) Might this be the first use of the Nats much ballyhooed newfound minor league pitching depth?

Here's what we know about Wily Mo: he's big, still youngish (just about to turn 26), slugged the crap out of the ball in the Great American Matchbox in Cincy, and is currently having an abysmal year as the 3rd/4th outfielder in Boston, and is eligible for his 2nd year of arbitration in the offseason. Sounds like your typical Jim Bowden reclamation project.

It should go without saying that Wily Mo is not an elite defensive outfielder, though he's not terrible either. But he's definitely here for his bat. He may also be here because of Austin Kearn's cramping/hamstring/knee injury. If he's not replacing Austin his acquisition causes something of a logjam in the corner outfield. If Pena is here, he's playing, so the question is whether he pushes Church to the bench or Church slides over to center field and bumps out teh Nook. We should know soon enough. Pena probably won't be here for tonight's game, but he should be around in time to start tomorrow for Lincoln bobblehead night.

JimBo has coveted Pena forever, so when Wily Mo cleared waivers earlier this month the question was not if this deal would get done, but when, and for what. And the what really is the key element. The whole point of building up farm system depth is to be able to trade for major league talent, but Pena is 2-3 years removed from being a hot prospect. He's basically been reduced to a spare part on a contending Red Sox team. So I hope Trader Jim didn't let his lust for former Reds get the better of him. It's fine to give up a talented minor leaguer, just don't sell the farm.

In the meantime, Washington Welcomes Wily Mo!

Hip, Hip, Oh Crap

I've got a funny feeling that the other shoe in the 2-year, $10M Dmitri Young contract extension just dropped. Multiple sources are reporting that 1B Nick Johnson, out all season recovering from a broken leg he suffered last September, will have surgery on his ailing right hip. The surgery is termed "minor" and doctors expect Nick will be ready to go for Spring Training '08, but isn't that what they said about Spring Training '07?

Nick is a notoriously slow healer. I'm not saying that to rag on the guy, it's obvious he's been putting in the effort, his body just isn't cooperating. This latest trip under the knife will remove some of the hardware from his previous surgery and hopefully clear up the lingering swelling and bursitis in his hip. But as anyone with an elderly relative knows, there's no such thing as "minor" surgery when the connection between body and leg is involved. At the very least Nick will have to shut down completely until the end of the year, and then try to ramp up his rehab again in time for Viera. And again, Nick Johnson = slow healer. If the "normal" rehab time for this sort of thing is 3 months, we might want to just go ahead and pencil in June 2008 for Nick's most optimistic return.

It's fair to assume that the front office knew this was a possibility long before anyone bothered to tell us, and if so that explains a good deal about Da Meat Hook's new contract. Two years, ten million dollars might still be excessive, but it makes more sense to pay that for Dmitri Young the first baseman rather than Dmitri Young the left fielder or Dmitri Young the switch-hitting pinch hitter off the bench.

Of course, the best case scenario is still possible. The surgery really is minor, Nick comes back pain-free in December, gets his rehab on and is ready to go when position players report in March. And Lord knows that's what we here at Nats Triple Play want for Nick. He's been a hell of a ballplayer and a genuinely good guy from Day One. Plus, Watson has all that moola invested in a # 24 jersey. So Godspeed Nick Johnson, best wishes for a successful surgery and a speedy recovery... again.