Drew Storen > Aaron Crow

Erstwhile never-quite-a-Nat Aaron Crow was just named Kansas City's pitcher of the month for April. The lefty reliever worked 12 1/3 scoreless innings, striking out 11 and stranding all 10 runners he inherited. That's nice work for a setup man, no doubt, but Crow was supposed to be a starter, a dominant lefty that the Nats could pair with Jordan Zimmermann atop the rotation.

Of course, as we all know, it didn't work out that way. Drafted by the Nats in the first round in 2008, Crow balked at the Nats contract offer and spent a year pitching for the independent Fort Worth Cats before re-entering the draft and signing with Kansas City. Harsh words were leveled at the front office and ownership in the immediate aftermath, and the consensus was that Crow's flight was a serious failure, to be mitigated only if the Nats' compensation pick, reliever Drew Storen, ended up being better than Crow.

On the face of it, those were long odds. Aaron Crow was a starter, Storen a relief pitcher. Even the best relievers rarely provide anything approaching the value of an average starting pitcher. Here's the thing though, once in the minor leagues Crow wasn't an average starting pitcher; he was terrible. ERA over 5 in hi-A ball terrible. No 3rd pitch terrible. Just plain terrible.

Storen, meanwhile, blew through the minors, literally and figuratively, balancing his pitching responsibilities with duty as Stephen Strasburg's unofficial spokesman. He made his MLB debut on May 17, 2010 and went on to post an ERA+ of 113 over 55 innings, including 5 saves. Storen's matched that save total already in 2011, with an ERA+ of 660 (over 15 innings).

By all rights there is a lot of baseball ahead of both these young men, but here are their career lines to date:

• Aaron Crow
• Drew Storen
  

None of this excuses the process that led to the botched 2008 draft, but knowing what we know now, it's hard to think the Nationals didn't come out on top in spite of themselves. A little over a month from now, Drew Storen will have two years of professional baseball experience, Aaron Crow almost three. By the numbers you'd have to take Storen every time, wouldn't you?

Shows What I Know

"[W]e ain't getting Wilson Ramos for Capps..." - July 28, 2010

Yeah, about that... I'm a dumbass. The formal announcement is still pending, but Woo Hoo!

Here's a little background on Wilson Ramos, courtesy of Baseball America. Aaron Gleeman, who knows Twins baseball just about as well as anyone, has this take on Ramos:

Wilson Ramos has been totally overmatched by Triple-A pitching, posting a hideous 41-to-8 strikeout-to-walk ratio while hitting just .208/.244/.319 in 52 games. Ramos showed reasonable enough plate discipline in the low minors, but since advancing to Double-A last year he has 14 walks and 64 strikeouts in 106 games. He's making contact at a palatable rate, but the total lack of patience is disturbing along with a .427 career slugging percentage.

Ramos remains a very solid prospect largely due to projecting as a good defensive catcher, but it was always wishful thinking to assume he was even close to an MLB-ready impact bat and that notion now looks silly. With that said, he's still just 22 years old and has fewer than 450 plate appearances above Single-A, so there's no need to sour on Ramos too much.

Wilson Ramos is far from a sure thing, but he's a legitimate catching prospect and easily enters the Nationals' Top 10 prospects list. Considering that Ramos was rumored to be part of the Twins' offer to the Mariners for Cliff Lee, getting him for a reliever like Capps is a coup.

The Nats' bullpen will have to be reshuffled, but that's an insignificant price to pay. Whether this is the dawn of the Drew Storen Era or the beginning of two and a half months of closer-by-committee, you make this trade 100 times out of 100. Nicely done, Mr. Rizzo.

POWer Pitching

12.1 innings, 3 earned runs, 5 walks, 22 strikeouts, 2 wins. Apparently, those numbers get you noticed. National League Player of the Week. Sports Illustrated cover boy. Topic of discussion from FanHouse to San Fran.

Oh sure, now folks want to have an opinion about the Nationals. Where were you when that batting tee attacked Junior Spivey?!

The Nationals haven't had a true power pitcher since John Patterson struck out 185 in 198 innings in 2005. (He also struck out 42 in 40.2 innings of work in an injury-shortened 2006, walking just 10. John Patterson was good. Snakebit, but good.) Not coincidentally, that's also the last season the Nats posted a non-losing record.

What Strasburg does, apart from collect buckets of Ks and make major league hitters look silly with his curveball, is give the entire pitching staff a different look. For four years hitters pretty well knew what they were getting in a 3-game series vs Washington. Three pitchers throwing between 88 and 91 and hoping to keep to ball on the ground and in the park. Sure there were minor differences between guys, maybe one was a lefty, but there was nothing to make opposing batters re-tool their entire approach to hitting. Now there is.

Hall of Fame pitcher Warren Spahn said, "Hitting is timing. Pitching is upsetting timing." In a three game set, the other team might see Strasburg's 100 MPH fastball one night, Lannan's 88 MPH slider at the knees the next, and Livan's 62 MPH Bugs Bunny curve the next afternoon. That has to mess with your timing, doesn't it?

Of course it wouldn't be DC if fans didn't look for the dark cloud in every silver lining. Post columnist Thomas Boswell, who really wanted Dustin Ackley anyway, is worried that too many strikeouts will put an unnecessary strain on Strasburg's arm. Or, in the alternative:

Kasten: Harper in DC by 2013

Stan speaks, sans translator

On Saturday Nationals' President Stan Kasten spoke to fans (and 20-odd bloggers) before the Nats-Reds game. He covered a range of topics from the Philly Phan Invasion to Strasburg-mania. He also touched briefly on Bryce Harper.

Speaking in the abstract, because this was 24 hours before Mike Rizzo confirmed what everyone has known for months, Stan noted that Harper's path to the majors would be greatly accelerated by moving out from behind the plate. Based on his "conversations with baseball men" Kasten observed that a young catcher could take 4 or 5 years to develop.

On the other hand, an outfielder with Harper's bat and physical tools could conceivably be major league-ready in two years. So there you have it. The plan all along was to draft Harper, move him to right field and have him playing behind Strasburg and Zimmerman by 2013. Dave Cameron has some thoughts on the pros and cons of this approach here.

Stan also repeatedly mentioned that "signing quickly" would be key to Bryce Harper's development. Way to play it cool, Stan.

Hook, Line, Sinker

What has six thumbs and three tickets to the June 4th game against the Reds? These guys!

I don't blame the Nats. Like Needham says, they bent over backwards not to say anything about when Jeezus will be incarnating in DC. (Contrarywise, seems like they could have said something about when he wouldn't be appearing.) Nor do I particularly blame Zuckerman, Goessling, et al. though this piece is a masterwork of backtracking. Educated guesswork is the lifeblood of journalism, but sometimes you're going to be wrong. In sportswriting this will get you mercilessly mocked on the interweb. In politics it will get you an Op-Ed column at the Washington Post.

One of the criticisms leveled at the Nats for manipulating Stephen Strasburg's service clock was that while they were saving money on his future contracts they were losing revenue in 2010 by not maximizing his major league starts. Clearly Stan Kasten devised a way around that problem. He's managed a near sellout of an otherwise unremarkable Friday night game in early June. Have cake? Check. Eat cake? Check.

Again, I don't blame the Nats. It was in their interest not to quash the June 4th speculation. We ought to understand by now that Stan, Mark and Uncle Teddy consider tickets sold the only appropriate barometer of success. Butts in the seats, or who those butts happen to be rooting for, is a secondary concern. I have no doubt that June 8th, or any other date will sell out just as quickly once Strasburg's promotion is confirmed. Hell, I might very well roll the dice again myself.

Won't Somebody Please Think of the Children?

Children's National Medical Center is hosting a benefit at Nationals Park this Sunday, April 25th when the Nats host the Dodgers. One third of every ticket sold through this link will be donated to the Pediatric Diabetes Care Complex in DC. The Nationals have been involved with this project through their Dream Foundation for several years.

If you're going to the game anyway, get your tickets here. If you weren't going, now you have an excuse. It's for charity! Once they knock out childhood diabetes, CNMC can start trying to figure out what ails Jason Marquis.

The link to order tickets is: www.nationals.com/childrensnational

Speaking of the youngsters, Past a Diving Vidro has a thoroughly depressing look back at the Nats stars of the future past, circa 2005. If this really is the first in a series we may all need medical care before Kevin makes it to 2009.

I love it when a post title works on multiple levels.

Trade Veloz-ity

The 2009 Mike Rizzo Low-Budget Housecleaning Tour rolls on. The Nats traded 2B Anderson Hernandez back to the Mets for A-ball 2B Greg Veloz. John Sickels ranked the 21 year-old Veloz the 17th-best Mets prospect coming into 2009, and Baseball America placed him in the organization's top 25. A rough year has probably dimmed Veloz's prospect luster somewhat, but he's a solid return for two months of Anderson Hernandez on a going-nowhere Mets team.

Hernandez, you'll recall, was originally acquired from the Mets for Luis Ayala (of sainted memory.) While it would have been nice to persuade Omar Minaya of the absolute necessity of acquiring Ronnie Belliard, shipping out the playing time deficient Hernandez is an acceptable Plan B. Frankly, anything the Nats can do to ensure Omar Minaya's continued employment in the Mets front office, they should do.

On the Nats end, this is exactly the type of deal Rizzo should be making in bulk. Hernandez lost out to the Attorney General in the battle of underwhelming utility infielders, Belly-yard is being showcased for a post-deadline trade and Mike Morse is tearing up Triple-A. The Nationals, meanwhile, are back in the market for a full-time second sacker (along with a closer, veteran starter, and everything else they were looking for last season.)

Veloz may never amount to anything (the odds are much worse than 50/50) but for the Nats, neither would Hernandez. The Johnson and Beimel trades were "must" deals. Today was a "should" deal. Hopefully the first of many.

UPDATE: This is not the deal I had in mind. Per Nationals Farm Authority (via teh Tweeter) Nats acquire Norris Hopper and Daryle Ward from the White Sox for cash. First reaction: Hopper makes sense as AAA outfield depth, Ward makes sense only if Belliard is getting traded/DFA'd in the next 20 minutes. Second reaction: "Holy $#&%, the Lerners are handing out cash! Get thee to the ballpark, pronto."

Two Debuts

In the wake of the Misson: Improbable-style comeback over the Fish last night the Natmosphere is buzzing over the disabling of Austin Kearns, which you can plausibly argue actually occurred sometime in mid-2008, and the resulting promotion of 29-year old rookie outfielder Jorge Padilla. I'd expect the Rick Short name-checking to come fast and furious, but only Charlie Slowes has been with the franchise long enough to make the reference authentic. Nationals Journal has the background on Padilla.

Jorge, while certainly no Rick Short, is a true baseball feel-good story, and it's always nice to see an outstanding AAA season rewarded. But Padilla won't be anything more than a bench bat for the Nats. He doesn't really have the power to hold down a major league corner outfield slot or the speed to spell Morgan in center. He's old friend (and current Syracuse farmhand) Mike Vento with a better batting eye.

The debut to watch, or listen to, tonight will be 120 miles north of Nationals Park, where new Harrisburg Senator Aaron Thompson takes on Binghamton in his Nationals organization debut. Thompson was the Nats return on the last second deadline deal that sent Nick Johnson to Florida. The Marlins first round selection in the 2005 draft, the 22 year-old put up a 4.11 ERA for AA Jacksonville, with uninspiring peripherals. John Sickels had this to say about the man he ranked Florida's 15th best prospect in 2009:

"I don’t like the way his Double-A numbers slipped and I worry about health."

Damning with faint criticism. I'll be rooting for Padilla over the next two months, but for this organization to make real progress, I'll be praying for Aaron Thompson.

No Pressure Steve

Roughly 24 hours from now, San Diego State RHP Stephen Strasburg (aka "The Messiah") will be selected by your Washington Nationals as the first overall pick in the 2009 MLB amateur draft. By virtue of being the greatest collegiate pitcher since Mark Prior/Ben McDonald/Christy Mathewson, Strasburg will be in line to recieve a guaranteed contract totaling somewhere between $15M and the last Chrysler bailout. But that's no reason to think you'll see him take the field for the Nats in '09. Why should he?

Draftees have until August 15th to sign their contracts, and Stephen (via Scott Boras) figures to use every second of that leverage against the team. Again, why not? He's not going to blow out his arm between June 9th and August 15th, and there's really no advantage to him signing early unless the Nats lock Stan Kasten in a closet and throw out an opening bid of $35M, reduced by $500,000 every day Strasburg remains unsigned. (Don't hold your breath for that one.) By August he'll be at least two months removed from organized baseball after having pitched a pretty heavy load for SDSU. The odds of him adding a couple dozen MLB innings to his resume are not good.

But more than that, why should Stephen Strasburg be in a rush to join this organization? The big league team is slouching toward historic awfulness. Double-A Harrisburg (where he'd likely start his career) is just as bad. It's a continent away from his home and family, and the second he sets pen to paper all those ridiculous expectations floating around in the ether, "Frontline starter," "All-Star," "Cy Young winner," "Hall of Famer" will begin to crystalize.

If Strasburg doesn't immediately pitch a perfect game, reverse global warming and successfully implement a two-state solution in the Middle East, there will be no shortage of former boosters ready to label him a bust, the next in a long line of failed No. 1 picks. Who needs that? For comparison, look just up the road in Bal'mer. Orioles catcher Matt Weiters was a top 5 pick, the consensus best position player prospect in baseball. He dominated the minor leagues, and debuted to more fanfare than anyone since Ichiro crossed the Pacific. Now he's hitting .140ish. And he'll get a much longer leash than Strasburg.

2009 is a lost season for the Nationals, and not "Lost" in a good, mysterious tropical island kind of way. Think Sleestaks. Do you really want your memories of this baseball wasteland to include an overworked struggling Stephen Strasburg? Odds are neither does he. Welcome to Washington, Stephen. We'll see you next year.

What More Can I Say

Nationals 6 - Mets 4

If the Nats have 99 Problems, Jordan Zimmermann ain't one. (Box Score)

If there really is only one spot open in the 2009 rotation, (which would require guaranteeing jobs for Hill and Cabrera) then J.Z. appears to have taken an early lead over Collin Balester for the fifth and final slot. Zimmermann pitched 3 perfect innings, striking out 3 and throwing just 34 pitches. Big Pimpin' indeed.

It was a performance BallyStar couldn't match. He imploded in the 5th inning, allowing 4 runs on 5 hits and surrendering dingers to noted sluggers Fernando Tatis and Ramon Castro. Collin recovered to pitch a scoreless sixth, and today's relief corps of Jason Bergmann, Garrett Mock and Jesus Colome was uncharacteristically solid.

The offense came in bunches, as Nick Johnson recovered from his brush with the DL to lauch his second homer of the spring. Another day, another two hit game for Ryan Zimmerman. Ronnie Belliard was 2-3 (with a SB!) and the Attorney General continued to impress off the bench.

Honorary 25-man roster spots go to: Nick the Stick and Everyday Colome.

2009 Draft: First Things First

WaPo beat writer Chico Harlan has provided the first of what is sure to be a deluge of 2009 profiles of San Diego State pitcher Stephen Strasburg. Strasburg, the only collegiate member of the USA's 2008 Olympic Team in Beijing and owner of a 23 K game against Utah, is expected to be the top pick in June's MLB amateur draft. And that top pick, of course, is held by our very own Washington Nationals, the consolation prize for being baseball's most inept franchise in 2008.

If Strasburg were to be selected first overall in June, he would join a less than distinguished club. Being taken with the first pick may not be the kiss of death for a pitcher's career, but it's no guarantee of future competence, let alone success. As the Post notes, eight pitchers have been selected with the top pick in the last 20 years. One, Tampa Bay's David Price, had a nice debut in late 2008 and performed pretty well in the Rays' run to the World Series. Another, former Oriole Big Ben McDonald had a very good career cut short by recurring injuries. The other six (with apologies to Luke Hochevar, who's certainly young enough to improve) are a collection of injury-plagued mediocrities.

Nevertheless, the Nationals are yolked to Strasburg at least as long as he remains the consensus best player in the country. He has another season of SDSU baseball ahead of him, but barring an injury, the consensus seems unlikely to change. This team simply cannot afford to pass on the best talent available, a player Jim Bowden, with his usual measured restraint, called "as good a pitcher as we've seen in the draft in 10 or 15 years."

Combine that whiff of desperation with the fact that Stasburg is represented by Scott Boras, and there are already hints of blood in the water. Chico Harlan suggests a signing bonus north of $6M, but you can expect Boras to use that number as a starting point for negotiations. The Nationals, having been burned by MLB's slotting system and roundly condemned for last year's Aaron Crow fiasco, may as well pick out a nice barrel now, because they're going to be over it this summer.

For more on Strasburg and the Nats, here's the Director's Cut of Chico's article and Dave Shenin's excellent Olympic-centric piece.

Patterson & the Prospects

From Bill Ladson comes the utterly unsurprising but still sad news that John Patterson is retiring from baseball at the age of 30. The former Nationals "ace" starting pitcher experienced another setback during rehab of his perennially injured right forearm. J-Patt was very good with ocassional flashes of dominance during the 2005 inaugural season. This was probably the finest outing of his Nationals career, and Dave and I were privileged to see it.

After 2005 recurring injuries took a toll on Patterson, who pitched a total of 72 innings over the next two seasons. The Nats took some heat when they cut ties with John in March of last year, but an attempted comeback with the Texas Rangers fizzled after yet another mysterious bout of forearm pain. It's an unfortunate way for a little piece of Nats history to leave the big stage, but NTP wishes John and his family nothing but the best in the next phase of their lives.

Meanwhile...

BBA's list of the Top 10 Nationals Prospects is here! The always excellent NFA is doing the legwork to try to piece together the full Top 30. Three pitchers and three outfielders made the top 10, and Smiley Gonzalez is the lone middle infield representative, which goes a long way to explaining the 2-year extension of GUZMANIA! in the Nation's Capital.

As expected, 2009 rotation candidate Jordan Zimmermannnnnn tops the list, followed by talented but erratic LHP Ross Detwiler, rehabbing 1B Chris Marrero and raw OF Michael Burgess. Beyond Zimmermannnnnnnnnnn (and perhaps Detwiler) all ten are a long way from major league ready. It should go without saying that the addition of two Top 10 picks in June 2009 will greatly improve the list.

When You're Smiley, The Whole World Smiles With You

Photo by Jesse Sanchez/MLB.com

Meet the 2008 Gulf Coast League Batting Champion. SS Esmailyn "Smiley" Gonzalez led the GCL Nats into the playoffs with a .350 average in 50 games (177 ABs). The 19 year old compiled a .436 OBP, 17 extra base hits and stole 9 of 11 bases on the season.

Gonzalez was the Nationals first major amateur signing out of the Dominican Republic back in 2006, when the team was committed to making a splash on the international scene. More recently, he was linked to the investigation of bonus-skimming from amatuer players abroad, albeit without apparent cause.

The GCL Nats will be joined in the minor league playoffs by the defending champion Dominican Summer League Nationals and our neighbors to the south, the Hi-A Potomac Nationals. So if anyone gives you grief about the product on the field at Nats Park, you can say "Hey, the Nats have already clinched a playoff berth. Thrice!"

The Kids Are Alright

The Bonifacio-Gonzalez middle infield defense appears to be as-advertised. As does Emilio's vaunted speed, and Alberto's batting eye. It was just one game, and a game against Homer Bailey, at that, but I'll join the chorus that's saying, "If I have to watch bad baseball, I'd prefer it be played by 9 hustling kids."

Apparently Odalis Perez feels the same way. The youth movement inspired arguably his best start of the season, 1 run on 3 hits over 7 and a third innings. That was more than enough against Bailey, who I expect to see on our roster by this time next season at this rate. The top of the lineup jumped all over Homer, getting 2 runs in the first inning and tacking on three more in the second, including a double by Gonzalez and a single/steal combo by Bonifacio.

Yes, the offense pretty much closed up shop after that, but Perez, "Everyday" Saul Rivera and newly anointed closer Joel Hanrahan held the Reds in check, doing an especially nice job against the heart of the Cincy lineup. If we can get this kind of combination of pitching and defense down the stretch, Nats baseball will be a lot more watchable. Heck, it might even cost us the "Strasburg Sweepstakes."