Salvage Operation

Rick Eckstein was done in by Danny Espinosa, Denard Span and injuries that led to the most hilariously awful collection of reserve hitting performances imaginable.

The not-so-secret truth behind the 2013 Washington Nationals offensive futility is that most of their everyday players are having good, in some cases very good, seasons. Bryce Harper and Jayson Werth are both having near great seasons that have been truncated by repeated trips to the DL. Wilson Ramos has likewise been legitimately great, when he's been healthy enough to play.  Ian Desmond is building on his breakout 2012, and Ryan Zimmerman has been very solid (at least with the bat) all season. Adam LaRoche has unsurprisingly not come close to replicating last season's success, but he hasn't been a drag on the offensive either, apart from his traditional difficulties with left handers, and grounding into a team-leading 11 double plays.

That leaves Espinosa, Span, and the vast airless void that is the Nationals' bench.  Giving 167 plate appearances to Espinosa, he of the 158/193/272 slash line, isn't the sole cause of the team's offensive woes, but it made a significant contribution to the size of the hole. Backup 2B Steve Lombardozzi's 235/247/294 performance didn't exactly cry out for additional playing time either. The promotion of Anthony Rendon seems to have stanched the bleeding for the time being, but real damage was done.

Denard Span's .262 batting average and .319 on base percentage aren't insupportable from a very good defensive center fielder, but they're inexcusable from a leadoff hitter who has accumulated the 2nd most plate appearances on the team. What's more, Span has simply (and suddenly, given his career numbers) been unable to hit left-handed pitching at all this season, but has only recently been platooned versus lefties.

Enough ink has been spilled on the collective troubles of the Nats' bench, so suffice it to say that sacking the lot of them and replacing them with 5 starters from the AAA squad probably wouldn't be a downgrade. There's too much water under the bridge to realistically expect the team to compete either for the division or wild card at this point, but that's no reason not to maximize their offensive potential going forward. With that in mind, a modest lineup reorganization proposal to help the Nationals stop sucking quite so much:

vs. RHP                                     vs. LHP

CF  D. Span                               2B  A. Rendon
RF  J. Werth                               RF  J. Werth
LF  B. Harper                             3B  R. Zimmermann
SS  I. Desmond                           SS  I. Desmond
3B  R. Zimmerman                       C   W. Ramos
1B  A. LaRoche                           LF  S. Hairston
2B  A. Rendon                             CF  B. Harper
C   W. Ramos                              1B  T. Moore

The starters actually hit right-handed pitching pretty well, so the only adjustments to be made would be to get the on-base guys higher in the lineup, and break up the lefties and righties a bit.  The lineup versus right-handers is dangerous, top-to-bottom.  It's pretty clear that the problem comes against left-handed pitching. Span and LaRoche are out entirely, Harper drops way down, and Rendon leads off more or less by default. The middle of the order is solid, but the bottom third has mostly been a black hole this season. Add in the fact that none of the bench bats can be counted on to contribute in key spots, and you get a team that is 3 games under .500 and trending down.

There you have it, a nickel's worth of free advice for new Nationals hitting coach/sacrificial lamb Rick Schu. By the numbers, there's no reason that the Nationals should not have a better than league average offense going forward. Not that that'll be much comfort to the team or its fans, who had such grand dreams for 2013.

The Worst-Case Scenario Opening Day Roster

The Nationals' off season to date has been characterized by a marked lack of activity on the position player front. No major free agents (Sorry, Mark DeRosa does not qualify as a blockbuster signing.), no "big" trades; lots of sound, very little fury (apart from certain quarters of the fanbase). Signifying what, exactly?

Unlike seasons past, when the plan for the winter was less roster upgrade than roster overhaul, the Nats approach 2012 with relatively well-defined needs. Foremost among the holes to be filled, a centerfielder and a lead-off hitter, either separately or all in one player. The free agent market for lead-off hitting centerfielders was less than impressive even before Grady Sizemore re-signed with Cleveland, and Coco Crisp is a cereal, not a solution.

Remaining free agents like Cuban Yeonnis Cespedes or trade targets like B.J. Upton are centerfielders, but not classic leadoff hitters. And now the jungle drums are rumbling that Mike Rizzo may wait until 2013 to upgrade the outfield, even as Buster Olney suggests that the team may be eyeballing ex-Nat Marlon Byrd in the Cubs on-going fire sale. And all of this leaves aside the looming, ever-expanding profile of the Prince of Milwaukee, Wisconsin's very own Hamlet. "To be or not to be?" is indeed the question, but not one we're concerned with today.

Today we're looking at the Opening Day 25-man roster as though the franchise was frozen in time on January 10, 2012. No more bench bats or bullpen arms, only what Mike Rizzo has to work with as of right this moment. With that in mind, I give you your 2012 Washington Nationals:

Starting Pitchers: S. Strasburg (R), G. Gonzalez (L), J. Zimmermann (R), C. Wang (R), J. Lannan (L)

First Thoughts - Easily the best rotation since baseball returned to Washington, DC. Three potentially legitimate top-of-the-order starters, and the 4/5 pitchers are slotted below their ability.


Relief Pitchers: D. Storen (R), T. Clippard (R), H. Rodriguez (R), S. Burnett (L), R. Mattheus (R), T. Gorzelanny (L), R. Detwiler (L)


First Thoughts - This bullpen could easily be as good as the 2011 version, but in a perfect world one of the lefty long relievers would be swapped for a right-hander and there'd be one more veteran arm to support the youngsters.


Starting Eight: W. Ramos (C), A. LaRoche (1B), D. Espinosa (2B), R. Zimmerman (3B), I. Desmond (SS), M. Morse (LF), M. Cameron (CF), J. Werth (RF)

First Thoughts - If there were an award for Comeback Lineup of the Year, the Nationals would be strong contenders. The team will need bounce back years from LaRoche, Zimmerman, Desmond & Werth to stay competitive. The inclusion of ageless Mike Cameron shines a harsh spotlight on the Nats' on-going struggles in centerfield.

Bench: J. Flores (C), M. DeRosa (UTIL), S. Lombardozzi (INF), R. Bernadina (OF), C. Tracy (UTIL)

First Thoughts - Equal parts question marks and potential, but if the season started today the bench would once again be a weakness. If Flores and DeRosa have overcome their injuries they'll be solid contributors, but it's unreasonable to expect too much from the rest.

*****

The Nationals have made tremendous progress and fans have every reason to hope for a winning record in 2012, but significant holes remain, and there's no clear-cut path to filling them. Thank goodness Mike Rizzo still has 40 days until pitchers and catchers report to fine-tune his team.

N.B. - There is one glaring absence from the Opening Day roster, a Mr. Harper. First, please observe that this is The Worst-Case Scenario Opening Day Roster. Second, slotting Bryce Harper in as the Opening Day rightfielder and pushing Jayson Werth into center may nominally resolve some questions, but it's not a panacea. Harper's presence in the starting lineup creates problems of its own. But that's a topic for another post.

Bye Bye Bixler

Scrappy utility player Kory Casto Anderson Hernandez Pete Orr Alberto Gonzalez Brian Bixler was claimed off waivers today by the Houston Astros, ending his Nationals tenure after 79 games, 83 at-bats, a 205/267/265 batting line, and a few memorable plays like this one.

Now we can expect Stephen Lombardozzi to compete with a few veteran free agents (possibly including 2010 Syracuse standout Matt Antonelli) for the all-important utility position.  The waiver claim frees up one spot on the Nationals' 40-man roster.

Checking Up on the 40-Man Roster

As you may have noticed, reports of our death, while not wildly exaggerated, were at least slightly premature. C'mon, it's not like anything interesting really happened in the last 3 months anyway. Have you seen the Nats blogosphere lately? It's all Mike Rizzo pledging to go out and fill the same two positions he was pledging to fill last offseason, and the gripping drama of what day Davey Johnson's press conference will be. You're not going to guilt-trip me for skipping that, are you?

In any case, we're back with a quick pre-free agency review of the Nationals' 40-Man Roster, complete with 2011 draft picks. The roster currently stands at 42 and includes two guys who will have to be taken off the 60-day IR in the offseason.

The Lead Pipe Locks (24) - Either by virtue of their contract or their status within the organization these guys will (barring a trade) absolutely be with the Nationals in 2012.

Relievers

• Sean Burnett* - re-established himself as the go-to lefty reliever in late 2011. Signed for $2.3M in 2012.
• Tyler Clippard - shut down set-up man has an argument for staff MVP. Arbitration eligible.
• Yunesky Maya - he's here because he's signed to a $2M major league deal next season, not because of his 5.23 ERA.
• Henry Rodriguez - erratic fireballer turned late inning reliever and possible closer-in-training? Pre-arbitration
• Drew Storen - the Nats young closer is great at what he does, and we have every reason to hope for more of the same in 2012. Pre-arbitration.

Starting Pitchers

• Ross Detwiler* - is 2012 the year Ross puts it all together? He'll get every chance to show it. Pre-arbitration.
• John Lannan* - put together his "best" season in 2011. No reason to think that he won't be smack in the middle of the 2012 rotation. Arbitration eligible.
• Tom Milone* - or, as I like to call him, "John Lannan, Jr.". Will compete for the 5th starter spot and/or ride the shuttle from AAA Syracuse. Pre-arbitration.
• Brad Peacock - see above, though Peacock is more likely to start the season at AAA. Pre-arbitration.
• Matt Purke* - 2011 3rd round draft pick, signed a major league deal. Currently pitching in the AFL.
• Stephen Strasburg - Dominant end-of-season cameo. $4.875M for innings limited 2012.
• Jordan Zimmermann - aka "Strasburg's Road Map". Arbitration eligible in 2012.

Catchers

• Jesus Flores - may not be happy as Ramos' back-up but he's too talented to just let walk away. Arbitration eligible in 2012.
• Wilson Ramos - solid season for the rookie backstop; may get more days off if partnered with a healthy Flores in 2012. Pre-arbitration.

Infielders

• Ian Desmond - which Desmond will show up in 2012: First half (bad) Ian or second half (good) Ian? Pre-arbitration.
• Danny Espinosa - same question, flip the desired answer. First half Danny was a ROY candidate. Pre-arbitration.
• Adam LaRoche - again, not so much by (non-existent) performance but by virtue of his $8M contract for 2012.
• Steve Lombardozzi - got his '11 cup of coffee, but probably better playing every day in Syracuse than coming off the bench in DC. Pre-arbitration.
• Chris Marrero - "top" 1B prospect figures to be a bench bat in 2012 because the farm is filling up beneath him. Pre-arbitration.
• Anthony Rendon - the other 2011 draft pick with a major league deal. Won't see DC in 2012.
• Ryan Zimmerman - because he's the RZA, that's why.

Outfielders

• Bryce Harper - Washington's uber-prospect still has to make his bones in AA, but could be patrolling the Nationals Park outfield in September. $1.75M contract for 2012.
• Michael Morse - only question is where he will play. Arbitration eligible.
• Jayson Werth - an outfield fixture in every sense of the word. $13.57M next year, and it only gets worse after that.

The 99% (4) - They aren't key pieces, but there's no reason to think that (barring a trade) these guys won't be back next season.

• SP/RP Tom Gorzelanny - wasn't a terrible starter, but was much better in limited duty as a reliever. Every bullpen needs a second lefty. Arbitration eligible.
• RP Cole Kimball - hard throwing righty out until at least mid-season 2012 recovering from surgery. Pre-arbitration.
• RP Ryan Mattheus - bad peripheral stats but good results equal a reliever who will get another chance in 2012. Pre-arbitration.
• RP Atahualpa Severino - maybe 2012 will be the season he gets to pitch meaningful innings as the bullpen's second lefty. Or maybe not. Either way he'll probably be around. Pre-arbitration.

The Bubble Boys ( 6) - Poor performance, lack of minor league options, or just wearing out their welcome could spell the end for these fellas:

• RP Collin Balester - never able to establish himself as a long reliever while riding the Syracuse shuttle, spring training 2012 will be make-or-break for the BallyStar. Pre-arbitration.
• OF Roger Bernadina - Roger has never shown enough to merit a starting job, so he'll likely be competing for the 4th OF job with a number of free agents. Arbitration eligible.
• UT Brian Bixler - Bixler does a little bit of everything, but not particularly well. Pre-arbitration.
• OF Corey Brown - a late injury spoiled his 2011 cup of coffee, and he didn't show much at AAA, but he'll still likely get a second shot at Syracuse. Pre-arbitration.
• RP Doug Slaten - yeah, he's gone.
• RP Craig Stammen - will likely compete with Balester for the righty long reliever spot in the 'pen. There can be only one. Pre-arbitration.

 The Free Agents (8) - There are no mutual obligations here, and the team's progress means that many of these (popular) veterans may have played their last season in Washington.

•  OF Rick Ankiel - Doesn't have the bat to hold down a starting gig anymore, but his otherworldly arm, "versatility" and veteran-y goodness mean he's the FA most likely to be re-signed as a 4th OF.
• INF Alex Cora - when your calling card is "better than Brian Bixler", it's probably time to go.
• RP Todd Coffey - Everyone loves a jolly fat man, so look for Coffey to re-sign once he's done with his offseason gig at the North Pole.
• OF Jonny Gomes - could be a bench bat in 2012, but there are better options.
• SP Livan Hernandez - Sentimental favorite, and willing to go to the bullpen, but probably squeezed out in a numbers game. Farewell, Livo.
• OF Laynce Nix - could be a bench bat in 2012, but neither he, Ankiel or Bernadina can hit lefties.
• C Ivan "Pudge" Rodriguez - fan favorite still brings great defense, but the Nats just don't have the ABs for him.
• SP Chien-Ming Wang - Most likely FA to re-sign and try to build on a strong finish to 2011. Contract negotiations are already under way.

Best guess? Wang and Ankiel re-sign, Balester, Bixler and Slaten are cut loose, and the Nats use the 2012 offseason to find a lead-off hitting OF, a left-handed reliever and a infield bench bat to supplement Flores, Marrero, Ankiel and Bernadina.

Down on the Farm

The acquisition of Tom Gorzelanny does not make me tingle in my special places. (In case you were curious, my special places are Charlottesville, Edinburgh, and Montego Bay.) He's youngish and left-handed, which can be accounted pluses, but also wildly inconsistent both in terms of results and underlying stats. He strikes me as another version of Lannan/Marquis/Livo/Maya, but not necessarily a better one. However, I come neither to bury Gorzelanny nor to praise him.

I'm more interested in what the trade that brought him to DC says about the Nats farm system. As has been noted, Washington sent OF Michael Burgess and pitchers AJ Morris and Graham Hicks to Chicago in exchange for Tom Ter...adequate. None of the three was a consensus Top Ten prospect, though Burgess did sneak onto the bottom of a few lists courtesy of big power and a cannon arm in right field. Coupled with those tools was pitch recognition and strike zone discipline that was postively Pena-esque, and that's Wily Mo, not Carlos. Still, Burgess was rightly recognized as the centerpiece of the return for the Cubs.

Morris and Graham are both good not great young arms who, barring unexpected improvement, will probably max out as big league middle relievers. Burgess has the raw tools to succeed, but will never progress if he can't learn to identify and lay off a curve ball in the dirt. You can argue over whether these three players represent a fair return for Gorzelanny. What you can't dispute is that Burgess, Morris and Hicks, a quad-A slugger and two back-end starter/middle reliever-types are mid-level Nationals prospects.

The cream of the farm system basically begins and ends with proto-phenom Bryce Harper. Catcher Derek Norris has great plate discipline, but needs to reestablish his power and demonstrate the tools to stay behind the plate because his ceiling at 1B is basically Nick Johnson with less pop. Beyond Harper and Norris it's tough to identify any premier offensive prospects.

On the mound, starting pitchers Sammy Solis and A.J. Cole are highly regarded, but so were Ross Detwiler and Jack McGeary not so long ago. More established youngsters like Tom Milone and Brad Meyers have back-of-the-rotation skill sets. Way too much is riding on Stephen Strasburg's rehab and Jordan Zimmermann's continued development.

To be sure, the farm system would be much more impressive if youngsters like Strasburg, Danny Espinosa, Drew Storen and Wilson Ramos hadn't already graduated to significant roles in DC, but great teams have a prospect pipeline. The Nationals have a prospect sprinkler.

Hawpe to It

The Colorado Rockies are on the verge of releasing OF Brad Hawpe. Coincidentally, the Nationals are in the market for an outfielder to replace Josh Willingham as he makes his long overdue trip to the DL. Hawpe should be that replacement.

There's no question that there will be a reshuffling of the Nats outfield. All three outfield spots are legitimately up for grabs over the season's final month and a half. There are currently 5 players in the mix for those 3 spots: Nyjer Morgan, Roger Bernadina, Michael Morse, Willie Harris, and Justin Maxwell. (OF Kevin Mench is also on the big league bench, but he shouldn't be, and he certainly isn't a serious contender for regular playing time.)

As much as we love Willie Harris's webgems and improbable home runs he, like Mench, is not a part of this team's future. Leaving aside Jim Riggleman's inexplicable love for using Willie as the first pinch hitter off the bench he should not be getting anything more than spot starts and defensive replacement innings at this point.

For better or worse Nyjer Morgan is likely to return to his regular centerfield duties. There is some speculation that Roger Bernadina could move to center and push Nyjer to left, but that seems pointless, exchanging one below average corner outfield bat for another. On the plus side, Nyjer was hitting 308/361/354 in 18 second half games before his injury. That leaves Bernadina, Michael Morse and Justin Maxwell to split up at-bats at the corners. If you think that makes for an uninspiring choice, you'd be correct.

Roger Bernadina's been slowly playing himself out of the starting lineup all season. A 268/325/411 line might play in center field, but at the corners it's an offensive drag. It's not at all clear from his major or minor league stats that Roger has the glove to stick in center. He'll also be 27 next season, pretty well past the prospect stage. It may be time to admit that he is what he is, a very good 4th OF in the making.

Michael "Mike" Morse made a name for himself mashing left-handed pitching. A 306/342/556 split against lefties has earned him an everyday audition. A 257/304/419 line against righties is threatening to send him back to the bench. Morse deserves the chance to play out the season, but he's a below average outfielder, so if he's not getting it done with the lumber, he's not getting it done.

Like Morse, Justin Maxwell hits lefty pitching pretty well. But the guy simply cannot hit right handers. Not in the majors, not in the minors, not in a train, not on a plane. Not here nor there, he cannot hit them anywhere. As you might imagine, that limits his value. Justin gets a lot of slack because he's a local guy, and by all accounts a great guy, but his time is undeniably running out.

All of which brings us to Mr. Hawpe. He's having a down year, hitting just 252/340/430 and playing typically bad defense in right field. Note that Hawpe's slump constitutes an improvement over every healthy OF on the Nationals' 25-man roster. Check out this side-by-side career batting line comparison.

• Hawpe: 280/374/492 (274/369/470 away from Coors Field)
• Willingham: 265/367/475

Hard as it may be to believe, The Hammer probably gets a slight edge on defense, just because Hawpe is almost Adam Dunn bad in the outfield. That's the reason the Rockies put him on the Adam Dunn plan, and had him start taking some innings at first base. We're not necessarily talking about a long-term solution here. Hawpe is a clear upgrade over the current crop of corner outfielders, and might provide some insurance if Josh Willingham's knee surgery doesn't go as well as hoped.

Hawpe also projects as a Type-A free agent, and while offering him arbitration would be risky, the Nats might be one of the few teams in a position to take that risk and reap the draft picks should he decline. Of course, with the Rockies paying his salary, Hawpe would probably be an attractive left-handed bench bat for a number of contending teams. None could offer him the chance to play every day though, while the Nationals just happen to have an opening in the outfield.

The post-Harper breather is over. Hawpe to it, Mr. Rizzo

Offensive

"I WANT to believe the problem is with the pitching, not the hitting. But by league rank, it's the opposite." - Chris Needham, Capitol Punishment, 6/15/10

The Washington Nationals offense is like a good-for-nothing ex-spouse, or a cheap bra. It offers no support. The boys have scored 0, 1, 3, 3 and 4 runs in the last five games (all loses), and averaged just 3.4 runs/game over the last ten. The middle of the lineup - Zimmerman, Dunn, Willingham - has been great, All-Star caliber. Ivan Rodriguez and Roger Bernadina have been fine complementary pieces. The rest of the lineup? Ah, therein lies the problem.

Well, sort of. The truth is, the Nats are underperforming even their own modest projections. Baseball Musings' Lineup Analysis tool is a blunt instrument, but it credits the Nats standard lineup (Morgan, Guzman, Zimmerman, etc...) with creating 4.79 runs/game. FJB suggests batting Zimmerman second, and that probably wouldn't hurt, but fiddling with the lineup is rearranging deck chairs. The difference between the Nats best and worst possible lineup is measured in fractions of runs per game.

Jim Riggleman's lineup may not be helping, but it isn't the main problem. The Nats are carrying four well below average hitters into every game, every day. Now, being a National League team, they're more or less stuck with a pitcher. But that still leaves the shortstop, second baseman and center fielder not pulling their weight. (Bernadina may be a below-average hitter for a right fielder, but he's above average overall.)

If you're so inclined you can write Ian Desmond's (.299 OBP, .400 SLG) bat off as the price of doing business with his spectacular glove. The same cannot be said of Cristian Guzman or, in 2010 at least, of Nyjer Morgan. Maybe the Nationals can carry one defense-first starter, but not three, particularly when two aren't really all that defensively gifted these days.

File Under Better Late Than Never

To make room for the return of Mike Morse the Nats are designating 5th OF/pinch runner (and inexplicable occasional starting right fielder) Willy Taveras for assignment. Taveras is such a typical Jim Bowden-type player that I'm surprised Rizzo didn't get more grief for bringing him aboard. His defense has been solid, but he's been a black hole offensively (38 OPS+) and even with his vaunted speed is just 1-3 in stolen base attempts. Taveras's best performance came in an April 10th win over the Mets, where he went 2-4 with 4 RBI.

I'd say this move has been a long time coming, but in truth, until Morse was healthy again there was no one in Syracuse that would have represented a serious upgrade. Justin Maxwell has put up better numbers, but the organization still hopes that he's more than just a reserve or platoon outfielder and is giving him one last shot to prove he deserves a larger role. It will be interesting to see what sort of time share Jim Riggleman works out for Harris, Bernadina and Morse in right. Morse was originally slated to take the short end of a lefty/righty platoon with Super Willie. That would consign Bernadina to the 5th OF/pinch runner role Willy T. just vacated.

Morse has the potential to be the Nats most offensively potent right fielder (note the damning with faint praise.) Defensively he's probably a step above Cristian Guzman, but several notches below Bernadina and Harris. Morse gives the team a little more flexibility because he can also "play" first base, though with only 85 innings of experience over four seasons it's not clear that he'd be a better defensive replacement than Adam Kennedy or even an upgrade over Adam Dunn.

A look at the roster after Morse's return highlights two ongoing concerns. One, the Nationals are still operating without a legitimate right fielder, and there's no one waiting in the wings to take over. Two, there's still no power on this team outside of the core of Zimmerman, Dunn and Willingham. When Mike Morse automatically becomes your big bopper off the bench, that's a problem. Fans are rightly focused on the arrival of Strasburg, Storen et al. to reinforce the pitching, but if the Nats are going to make a serious run at contention in 2010 Rizzo is going to need to do more in right field than just swapping Mike Morse for Willy Taveras.

BernaDINGER!

Can we please get rid of Willy Taveras now?

No? Well, how about now?

Okay, but surely Willy's on the bus to Syracuse by now?

Play Bernadinger in right, play Super Willie in right, I don't care. Hell, play Mike Morse in right when he comes back. I've accepted that the Nats probably aren't going to have a right fielder who can hit and field consistently in 2010. Just get Willie Taveras off the roster.

*****

Know what else I noticed about this game? No Bruney!

Now I'm not saying that Brian the Bear is single-handedly responsible for at least 3 losses this season... no wait, that's exactly what I'm saying.

I didn't think it was possible to have less command of the strike zone than Joel "Gas Can" Hanrahan. I get that "missing bats" is a good thing for a hard-throwing reliever, but someone needs to remind Rizzo that missing bats because you're pitching a foot off the plate doesn't count.

Rizzo doesn't want to call up Storen for fear of having to pay him an extra $5M six years from now when he's still an effective closer (like Chad Cordero, Houston Street and all those other consistent young relievers). Fine, then how about Joel Peralta?

Nats - Dunn = .500

Thanks to tonight's 5-3 victory we can say with a fair degree of certainty that Adam Dunn knows the strike zone better than the umps, but tossing your helmet will get you tossed every time. Also, Josh Willingham can wear the hell out of a silver Elvis wig. On the other hand, there are all sorts of bad lessons that Jim Riggleman could draw from this win over the Brew Crew.

Bad Lesson #1: Zimmerman and Dunn are sort of superfluous. Willingham and Nieves are all the offense any team needs.

Bad Lesson #2: Batting Guzman and Gonzalez 3-4 is the key to victory. Slappy and scrappy beat OBP and SLG any day.

Bad Lesson #3: Ian Desmond should sacrifice bunt more often!

Bad Lesson #4: Brian Bruney is exciting and should be employed to liven up any ballgame.

One day the lack of secondary power on the roster (aka hitters other than Dunn, Zimm and the Hammer) will come back to bite this team. Fortunately, today was not that day. Instead, a solid performance from John Lannan and just enough timely offense was enough to get the Nats back to break even.

Tonight's win should give the Nats new journo-bloggers some good material. In general though, I'm with Kevin and Chris on this issue. Until someone with credentials kneecaps Dibble, that is.

In other news:

• .500 ball is enough to bring all sorts of old friends out of the woodwork.
• Behold, Stan Kasten's favorite customers in all their hometown glory.
• You mean Strasburg can't control the weather? OVERRATED!
  

The Great Roster Panic of '10

Zimm out, Mock down, Bernadina up, Morse to DL. So much for lazy Sundays. On the heels of an exciting 4-3 win over the Mets, one (hopefully) minor run of injuries has exposed everything that is wrong with the way Rizzo and Riggleman constructed the season opening roster. Much ink has already been spilled on the "versatility" of the 2010 Nats, but the dark side of versatility is having a bunch of guys playing out of position. Let's look at the two most glaring omissions:

1. No backup corner infielders. After Zimm, guess who has the most experience at 3rd base? Adam Kennedy. All of Adam's experience actually came last season with Oakland, so at least he's fresh. After him it's Willie Harris, Mike Morse and the couple of innings Guzie played at 3B during the All Star game. First base? Don't ask. Past polished veteran 1B Adam Dunn, you've got Morse's 85 innings and 23 from unsuspected utility guy Kennedy. Oh, and The Hammer has 4 innings on the infield. So we've got that going for us, which is nice.

2. No right fielder. Willie Harris? 10 innings in right before this season. Mike Morse? 87 innings from 2005-2009. "Natural" right fielder Willy Taveras? 1 inning in right (in 2004!) before this season. That's without even bringing Guzman into the conversation. FWIW, Rog Bernadina has also primarily been a CF in his five seasons in the minors. That's not to say that any or all of these guys can't play an acceptable right field, just that they'll all be learning on the job.

On the surface neither of these is really a big deal. After all, if Zimm or Dunn miss any significant amount of time the Nats are pretty well screwed regardless of who's covering for them off the bench. And you can live with one outfielder learning a new position on the fly, though only Morse really has the bat to play in RF.

The problems arise when, as happened yesterday, you get a spate of minor injuries. Mike Morse tweaks a hammy, no big deal, you've got a little more playing time for Taveras, Guzman and Alberto Gonzales. Ryan Zimmerman tweaks a hammy the same week as Morse? All of a sudden you're shuffling either your starting right fielder (Harris) or starting second baseman (Kennedy) to third, starting a career shortstop (Guzman) at second or in right, or counting on a guy who was supposed to be your 5th outfielder/defensive replacement/pinch runner (Taveras) for significant innings.

Of course, some of these problems could be avoided in the Nats carried an extra bench player, but to do that they'd need to jettison a reliever. Seeing as how the team is currently carrying an 8-man bullpen, you'd think that shouldn't be a huge issue. It certainly wouldn't be if the starters could be counted on for more than 4 innings. Which brings us Garrett Mock's well-deserved, one week overdue demotion.

Getting Mock out of the starting rotation was the right thing to do, but it's unlikely to solve the problem. After all, if there were somebody (not named Strasburg) who was head and shoulders better than Mock, they'd have been with the team to start the season while Garrett savored spring time in Syracuse. So you see, all the Nats' problems, from Zimmerman's hamstring to Willy Taveras' continued employment, flow from a lack of quality starting pitching.

If only there was something to be done about that...

NTP Season Preview: WTF Happened Here?

2010 is supposed to be the season that the Washington Nationals climb back into contention, competition, the conversation in the National League. Zimmerman, Dunn and Willingham anchor the middle of a lineup sparked by Nyjer Morgan. John Lannan leads a staff that just has to hold it together long enough for the second coming (of Stephen Strasburg) to arrive. Matt Capps and Brian Bruney were brought on board to round out a bullpen that almost literally couldn't be any worse. So why does it feel like the summer of 2010 will be another wasted season on the banks of the Anacostia?

1. The Future is Now... Early June

There are good and sensible reasons to let Stephen Strasburg cut his teeth in Harrisburg for two months, but there's no denying it makes the 2010 squad both worse, and more importantly less interesting. It's probably the right thing to do, but it's a tough pill to swallow for a franchise that hasn't had a really compelling storyline to sell since June of 2005.

2. This Wasn't Part of "The Plan", Man!

On the eve of the 2009 season Nats fans were hoping that the addition of Adam Dunn would help Ryan Zimmerman rebound from a sub-par 2008. But three players were expected to build on promising 2008 campaigns: C Jesus Flores, CF Lastings Milledge and RF Elijah Dukes (all 24 on Opening Day). Flash forward one year. Flores has played just 23 games, Milledge lasted all of 7 games before being shipped to Pittsburgh by way of the minor leagues and Dukes' departure was even more abrupt. More on that later, but the lesson here is twofold: 1) Even the best prospects are still just "prospects", and 2) two out of the three have been replaced by older, less talented players for 2010. That's an unorthodox take on rebuilding.

3. A Little Less Talk, A Lot More Action

The Nats were "in" on Aroldis Chapman but balked at the ultimate price. Sure, Chapman isn't the Cuban Strasburg, but he got uniformly rave reviews this Spring. The Nats "talked" to a number of other veteran starters after inking Jason Marquis, but ended up "solidifying" the rotation with (old friend and fan favorite, but c'mon... really) Livan Hernandez. Orlando Hudson apparently actually wanted to play in DC, just not at the price the Nats were offering, leaving the team with Adam "Plan B" Kennedy. But really, what's worse than any of those things in isolation is the creeping suspicion that either this team's owners are stupid, or they think the fans are.

4. Passing Over Elijah

Now that some time has passed, this deserves much more comment. I don't care if Mike Rizzo doesn't like Elijah Dukes, doesn't trust him, doesn't think he'll ever learn to stop swinging at that breaking ball low and away and will never be healthy enough to play 150 games in the field. You don't cut your 25 year-old de facto starting right fielder without having a plan in place to replace him. Clubhouse chemistry does not win ball games, guys that can take a pitch 400 feet the other way do. It seems to me that the last Nats team that was lauded for its clubhouse chemistry was the 2005 squad, and their right fielder was a certified lunatic.

To be any kind of competitive in 2010, the Nats need to make up for Elijah's offense. Harper pretty much had Dukes pegged as the Offensive Key to the season, so you can see this is more than just a passing concern. Maybe Ian Desmond can take up some of that slack, but don't hold your breath hoping for a renaissance from Pudge Rodriguez or Adam Kennedy. Zimmerman, Dunn and Willingham just don't have much room for improvement, and Nyjer Morgan was already playing over his head. In the post-steroid era we probably shouldn't expect to see new RF Willie Harris pull a Brady Anderson either.

Speaking of new right fielders, I need to address this headline briefly. Willy Taveras did not "earn" a job with the Nats. Willy Taveras cannot earn a job in major league baseball, he can only be given one. If you'd like this rant with a side of number, go here or here. As for how anybody could hand Willy Taveras a job in 2010, maybe it's...

5. The Ghost of Jim Bowden

Toolsy former Reds outfielder on the roster (and in the lineup) for no apparent reason? Check.
Multi-year, multi-million dollar contract for a washed up catcher? Check.
Overvaluing veteran relievers off the scrapheap? Check.
Roster constructed to leave a surplus at one position and a deficiency at others? Check.
No discernible progress on the international scouting front? Check.
Ian "Jeter" Desmond at shortstop? Check.

So tell me again how everything's going to be different once Mike Rizzo's in charge? Yes, I know, it's still too soon to judge Rizzo. But that time is coming, and it's coming in months, not years.

And finally...

The End of GUZMANIA!

You'd think I'd be upset about this. But here's what you don't understand. Cristian Guzman was trapped at shortstop like Napoleon on Elba. Mike Rizzo and Jim Riggleman have freed him to rampage across the diamond. Before you could be pretty sure where Guzman would be. Now he's gained the element of surprise. That, along with a fanatical devotion to never drawing a walk, will be his greatest weapon! (In other words, Nationals fans are so deeply screwed in 2010 that Cristian Guzman's problems don't amount to a hill of beans.)

Oh well, at least the Redskins are finally showing some signs of returning to the land of competent, professionally managed organiz... WHAT THE F@&%?!

Rizzo Drinks in the Afternoon

And starts to sober up around 7. That's my kind of GM.

Just keep him away from the segway.

Mike Rizzo's Chemistry Experiment

Dammit all, I was doing so well ignoring Spring Training. The scores don't mean anything because half the players won't see a major league roster this season. The stats don't mean anything because the players are working on things rather than trying to hit the ball, score runs or get batters out. Aside from overwrought "Ian Desmond for Opening Day shortstop" movement, (which conveniently ignores the whole "spring training stats are meaningless" thing) there hasn't really been any reason to follow the Nats too closely.

Until today, when out of the clear blue sky the Nats released presumptive Opening Day right fielder Elijah Dukes with a terse statement. Not traded, not optioned to minor league camp... released. Here's a list of guys who have been released by the Nationals this spring: Shawn Estes, Ron Villone, Eddie Guardado, Logan Kensing, Elijah Dukes. One of these things is not like the others, and it ain't Kensing.

When the Nats released Everyday Eddie Guardado after over-hyping his minor league contract and NRI earlier in the offseason, there was a minor groundswell of chatter around the Natmosphere. How could Mike Rizzo cut loose a guy who was previously touted as a mentor, clubhouse guru and stabilizing force after two bad innings? Though I resisted the urge to publish it at the time, (see above re: ignoring Spring Training) here's my quick hitter on the Guardado kerfluffle:

Eddie Guardado's release proves that Mike Rizzo is the second worst General Manager in Washington Nationals history. When Jim Bowden went dumpster-diving for a washed up reliever on a minor league contract with a spring training invite, he stuck with him for at least a dozen early season bullpen appearances. Mike Rizzo knows nothing about that kind of commitment to a bit.

The popular reaction to Guardado was way overblown, but the reaction to Dukes' release may be, if anything, too understated. Rob Neyer has a thoughtful post on why this probably isn't nearly so bad as it looks, and I don't disagree with his analysis. Dukes did seem to be regressing, was chronically bothered by nagging lower body injuries and while still young-ish he wasn't really a prospect anymore.

Still, to completely jettison a 25 year-old one year removed from a great season while he still has a minor league option remaining is bizarre and worthy of additional investigation. While steadfastly insisting that this was a pure baseball decision, Rizzo cited "clubhouse matters" and "chemistry" issues surrounding Elijah. OF Justin Maxwell likewise alluded to Dukes-related
"distractions."

If "toolsy" was watchword of Jim Bowden's tenure as GM, "chemistry" has been Rizzo's guiding star. From ripping Stephen Shell's aura to selling low on mercurial outfielder Lastings Milledge Rizzo seems to have an exceptionally low tolerance for anyone who disrupts his cherished clubhouse vibe. Fans who disparaged Bowden's penchant for valuing potential and flash over performance and results may find that Rizzo's yen for solid, steady reliability isn't the key to a championship either.

You know who has good chemistry? Winning teams. You know who has bad chemistry? Losing teams. If the Nats fought, bitched and backstabbed their way to a Wild Card berth, that'd be fine by me. On the other hand, a united, cohesive group of guys pulling together professionally for a 70 win season? Pass. Rizzo says this is a baseball decision, which means that he thinks starting Mike Morse, Justin Maxwell or Roger Bernadina in rightfield will make the Nats a better baseball team than they were with Dukes. I'm not sure I believe him.

Postscript: If this move has anything to do with getting Ian Desmond regular at-bats as a rightfielder then Rizzo, Riggleman and Kasten should join Dukes on the unemployment line tomorrow. If Desmond is one of the 25 best players on the team the Nats should make a place for him on the infield. If they need to release or bench somebody to make that happen, well, that's a baseball move. Otherwise Mike Rizzo is a really bad liar.

Any Orlando Will Do

The Washington Nationals came into the 2010 offseason with a legitimate hole in the roster at second base. Lucky for them, the 2010 free agent class featured an abundance of capable middle infielders. Mark DeRosa, Marco Scutaro, Orlando Hudson and Felipe Lopez (admittedly unlikely to sign on for a return engagement in DC) were among the "big" names, but there were more than a few glove-first types: Adam Everett, John McDonald and Alex Gonzalez for starters.

As you'd expect, the Nats were linked to a number of these guys. DeRosa and Everett were acknowledged targets before they signed elsewhere. Hudson has been a constant presence, and Adam Kennedy surfaced recently as an alternative. But nowhere in all of this chatter has anyone uttered the name Orlando Cabrera. Until yesterday.

Know why nobody talks about O-Cab anymore? Because he's done. He was once (and I mean that literally, one year) a good hitter for a shortstop, but any value in his bat was tied to his position. And he hasn't been a good shortstop for a long time. That's okay though, because the Nats plan to move him to second base!

Orlando Cabrera has appeared in over 1700 major league games. He's played second base 33 times, most recently a 3-inning stint in one game in the year 2000. This is not a case of guy dusting off the old mitt and getting back in the groove. This would be a 36-year old learning an entirely new position for a new team in two months. Cabrera's an athlete and I'm sure he wouldn't embarrass himself, but what exactly is the supposed upside to this move? A Guzman-Cabrera middle infield? Surely you jest.

Maybe it's just an Orlando thing. Orlando Hudson playing hard to get? Sign Orlando Cabrera. In that case, I present the NTP-approved list of Alternative Orlandos (in order of preference):

1. Orlando Jones - he played a wide receiver in The Replacements, he could fake second base.
2. Orlando Bloom - recently named UNICEF goodwill ambassador, could help with international scouting.
3. Tony Orlando - he don't love you (like I love you).
4. Orlando Cabrera - more upside.
5. Or... Lando Calrissian - yes, it's a stretch. Yes, I'd still prefer Billy Dee to O-Cab.
   

Washington-on-Hudson

The Washington Nationals flirtation with 2B Orlando Hudson has none of the glacial majesty of the Mets pursuit of Bengie Molina, though if you consider that it arguably began more than a year ago it may qualify for the longest free agent courtship in MLB history. The quasi-public negotiations have hit all the classic marks:

1. Nats suggest that their obvious second base vacancy could be filled by Cristian Guzman;
   
2. Hudson expresses guarded interest;
   
3. A 2-year offer at a "reasonable" rate is rumored;
   
4. Ridiculously inflated salary demands ($9M/yr) are leaked by one side or the other;
5. Nats respond, "Hey, look over there at Adam Kennedy!";
6. Tony Plush escalates his O-Dawg lobbying campaign;
7. Mutual interest is reiterated and deadlines are hinted at.

The deal may or may not get done, but the consensus seems to be that Hudson represents the "best" remaining free agent option for the Nats, so it's worth taking a look at the guy. At 32 years old Orlando's value is pretty well established. He's an above-average offensive second baseman, but Hudson's slick-fielding days are behind him. He was below average by most metrics in 2008 and 2009 and hasn't been truly great since his last season as a Blue Jay in '05.

Hudson's acquisition would push Guzman back to shortstop, where believe it or not he's basically an average defender when he's healthy, but a Guzman-Hudson-Dunn infield would leave newly-minted Gold Glover Ryan Zimmerman with a lot of ground to cover, and Nats fans should probably prepare themselves for a summer of bloops up the middle and bleeders into short right field. That said, that defensive infield could certainly be better than the Dunn-Guzman-Desmond alternative, and having Hudson on board would give Jim Riggleman and Mike Rizzo both security and flexibility.

As to the question of what sort of contract Hudson deserves, his reported demands aren't actually too far off his projected value. Orlando's consistently been worth 2-3 wins above replacement for the last 5 seasons and there's no particular reason to expect him to hit the wall in 2010. A $9M contract would pay between $3-4.5M per win, a fair value. Of course, Hudson's almost certainly not going to get $9M (certainly not from the Nats), even in a heavily incentivized deal, so it's fair to expect some value from whatever offer he does accept.

The rumored second year? Guzman is likely gone when his contract is up. (*sob*) The organization's middle infield talent pipeline is pretty well empty until you get to Danny Espinosa and Jeff Kobernus in the low minors, well... someone's got to play second in 2011. Like the second year of the Jason Marquis deal, who exactly would the O-Dawg be blocking?

Non-News Is Good News

On the day that legitimately competitive baseball clubs were deciding whether to offer arbitration to their talented free agents, the only news out of NatsTown is that the team will not be handing out cash to the veteran free agent dreck that clogged last year's roster. Josh Bard, Livan Hernandez, Austin Kearns, Ron Villone and Dmitri Young will all be faced with the unenviable task of latching on with a club more desperate for "baseball players" than the 2009 Washington Nationals.

As "news" goes, this is right up there with the shocking revelations, reported first here on Nats Triple Play, that Nats pitchers will not be pitching underhand next season and the corpse of Honus Wagner will not be your 2010 Opening Day shortstop. Note that the Honus Wagner "story" is still subject to confirmation.

As to whether the team will be handing out cash to the slightly younger dreck that clogged last year's roster, Mike Rizzo has until December 12th to make that call. On arbitration questions NTP mostly lines up with fellow Natmospherians Brian at NFA and Steven at FJB (3-letter acronyms: It's what's hip!)

For nuanced analysis, read them. Here's my take:

Absolutely offer arbitration to: Jesus Flores (Duh) and Josh Willingham (Double Duh.)

Probably should offer arbitration to: Sean Burnett (All my kids are learning to pitch lefty from birth, if not before.)

I'm fine either way: Jason Bergmann (He can swing from bullpen to rotation, he won't cost too much and he's got tenure with the franchise; but he gives up too many walks and gopher balls.)

Don't offer arbitration to: Saul Rivera (look up "fungible") and Wil Nieves (Who?)

Dear God, please don't offer arbitration to: Mike MacDougal (Say you find $100 at the departure terminal at McCarran Airport in Las Vegas. You pocket the money and go. You do not conclude that you're on a "hot streak" and extend your trip to return to the casinos. Trust me on this one.)

Damn the torpedoes, offer arbitration to: Scott Olsen (This is where I part ways with Brian and Steven. I'm a little more optimistic about Olsen's rebound potential and a little less sanguine about the likelihood of replacing that potential on the open market. I'd lump Olsen in with the other second-tier starting pitchers recovering from injury and try to sign him to a comparable deal. Even an arbitration loss should (should) have a negligible impact on the 2010 payroll.)

That frees up three spots on the 40-man roster. You know who'd look good in those spots? Orlando Hudson, Rich Harden and the top pick in the Rule 5 draft. Get to work, Rizzo.

From Whence Comes Our Help?

Lord knows that watching the Nats as they are is too heavy a burden to borne by man. Now is the time for all epically bad teams to begin reimagining their club as it might be. Boswell is already underway. Granted, as profound thinking goes, "The Nationals Need a Roster Overhaul" fits nicely right alongside "The U.S. needs to rein in entitlement spending." Propositions that command near-universal assent generally make for poor blueprints. It's easy to say "Blow up the roster and trade everything that's not nailed down!" Finding people to take the players the worst team in baseball doesn't want is a taller order, and getting something of value for them will be the real test of our interim GM.

For purposes of the current exercise I'm discounting the return on any trades, assuming they'll be either A) prospects too young to contribute immediately or B) 18-24 month stopgaps like Morgan and Burnett, guys who are complimentary players, not building blocks. The question then becomes, "What do the Nats have in-house that provides even a scintilla of hope for 2010 and beyond?" The answer, unsurprisingly, is not a hell of a lot. But that's no reason to hold off on the necessary roster decimation. The farm system is still a long way from producing a pipeline of big league caliber talent. The 2009 Washington Nationals are (at least on the position player side) a veteran bad team. If the 2010 squad is a younger bad team, that by itself would be an improvement of sorts.

The NJ Conundrum: Nick the (Walking) Stick is still getting on base, but his bat has quieted considerably. Even less than the homeruns, he's not nearly the doubles machine he once was. His usually slick glove has also shown uncharacteristic holes this season. Would being a full season removed from injury help? Possibly, but he's still the Nats best trade chip and a constant injury risk. Deal him, and move Dunn to first. The defense will be bad, but it was already bad.

The Ascension of Elijah: Dunn to first moves Willingham to leftfield, opening up right for the return of Elijah Dukes. Clubhouse cancer or not, Dukes has a big league bat and a big league arm. Burying him at AAA in favor of Austin Kearns would be insulting the intelligence of all 20 people still following this team. Keep Kearns around as a 5th OF if you must, unless Roger Bernadina's ankle heals up ahead of schedule. If Uncle Teddy can be convinced to eat Austin's salary, so much the better.

Belly Flop: Look, I like Ronnie Belliard. I thought he was a good low-risk pick-up in 2007, and I even liked the relatively cheap 2-year extension. He was valuable enough with the bat last season to earn his money. That was then, but now he's done. Maybe he'd be rejuvenated coming off the bench for a contender, and he showed last year that he can play the corners in a pinch, but nobody's going to give us anything to find out. Cut him loose on August 1st.

The GUZMANIA! World Tour: Personally I think the days are over when you can convince a major league GM that Cristian's .314 batting average means anything. (Sabean maybe, but he's got his own disaster at shortstop.) Still, a contender in need could do worse, and while the Nats would miss his bat, they probably wouldn't miss his (decreasing) range and $8M salary next season. I can't actually advocate trading Guzman, not with Alberto Gonzalez and Mike Morse as Plans B & C, but I'm willing to turn a blind eye if Rizzo can make it happen.

Say Hey and Farewell: Now that the Nats finally have a competent major league centerfielder, Willie Harris is a luxury. A speedy, left-handed, affordable utility luxury, to be exact. Granted it would take two AAAA guys (Morse and Maxwell, maybe?) to replace Willie's contributions and it would be nice to have Harris, Morgan and Dukes playing OF defense in the late innings, but historically awful beggars can't be choosers.

A Willing Trade Chip: You can't blow up the outfield without mentioning Josh. Next to (perhaps ahead of) NJ, Willingham is the most tradeable Nat. He's swinging a hot bat, which is always nice, and he's team controlled for a few more years, which is even better. Jettisoning both Johnson and Willingham would take out a huge chunk of the offense, but the outfield defense might improve by default. Unless Dunn moves back to left and Brad Eldred gets promoted from AAA, of course.

A Bard's Tale: Josh Bard has quietly worked his way up to a 280/350/400 line on the season. Not bad for a backup catcher moonlighting as a starter. Also not bad for a team looking to add a veteran backstop for the stretch run. I shudder to think what a trade here would do to our offense, and minor league help is almost literally nonexistent, but if Bard's tradeable he should be traded.

The Bull$&!# Pen: We come into this world with nothing, we leave with nothing and in between we pitch relief for the Washington Nationals. Every man in the 'pen is expendable. The Nationals Review makes an excellent case for turning competent relievers into prospects whenever possible. Nats fans need look no farther than the Mike Stanton-for-Martis or Luis Ayala-for-Hernandez deals to confirm the wisdom of this approach. Hell, even Rauch-for-Bonifacio ultimately netted Willingham and Olsen down the road. Granted, competence is a high bar for our 2009 relief corps to clear, but Beimel, a rehabilitated MacDougal, Villone, even newbie Sean Burnett, one or two of these guys ought to be able to fetch something of value. Rebuild the 2009 'pen around Bergmann, Clippard, two innings-limited young starters and whoever's left over from the yard sale. In 2010, start fresh.

And For Starters: There's John Lannan. There's Jordan Zimmerman. And then...? If Scott Olsen's return from the dead is legit he makes three. Signing Stephen Strasburg is not even open to discussion, but it's a mistake to slot him in as a 2010 savior-of-the-rotation. You'll be lucky to get one back-end starter out of the Martis/Stammen/Detwiler trio. Maybe J.D. Martin, Balester or Mock impresses in a late season audition. Maybe Matt Chico returns from the dead. More likely the rotation remains a promising but jumbled mess for the forseeable future.

Put Down Your Dukes

Didn't see that coming. To clear a spot for Nyjer Morgan the Nats demote Elijah Dukes to AAA Syracuse. The demotion was termed a "pure baseball decision" because Dukes is not a "finished product" and needs to play every day, which he certainly wasn't doing in DC. But wasn't that what they said about Lastings Milledge back in April? All I'm saying is I hope Elijah's lease is month-to-month.

Look, nobody who's watched Dukes play this season can argue with the assertion that he's regressed, both at the plate and in the field. After a hot start that saw him hitting 277/347/473 in mid-May Elijah got banged up, and his bat has yet to recover. A switch to CF didn't do him any favors either. Again, shades of Milledge? So yes, Dukes probably could, in theory benefit from a AAA stint to play every day and rediscover his swing. The $64,000 question is, will he?

He's been a solid citizen during his time in DC (even in the absence of Dmitri Young's "mentoring") and all we can do is hope that he takes the same approach to what is hopefully a brief reorganizational stint in the minors. Because let's face it, a team that demotes Elijah Dukes to put Josh Willingham in RF and keeps Austin Kearns on the bench still has quite a bit of dysfunction to work out. And Elijah Dukes does not need added dysfunction.

Assuming he takes it in stride, this may be the best baseball move for Dukes, but is it actually good the Nats? Even a struggling Elijah was a bat to be feared, and I doubt that seeing Kearns or Willie Harris stride to the on-deck circle imparts quite the same trepidation. So the bench is weakened. Dukes was also a more-than-capable right fielder with an imposing arm, something that cannot be said of Willingham. Nyjer Morgan was acquired to improve the Nats pitiful defense, but does sandwiching him between Dunn and Willingham negate that improvement?

Of course, Mike Rizzo has to play the cards he was given, and in Dunn and J-Will he was dealt two LF/1B/DH types, who also happen to be two of the better offensive performers on a very bad team. Getting their bats in the lineup alongside Nick Johnson was always going to be problematic. Let's hope Rizzo isn't finished dealing or reshaping the roster. This team is hard enough to root for when it's giving roster spots and ABs to the likes of Kearns and Ronnie Belliard. To paraphrase a great baseball man, "Sell low once, shame on me. Sell low twice, I won't get fooled again."

Chin up, Elijah, and come back soon.

Well, I Feel Much Better Now

Nationals trade minor league reliever Kyle Gunderson for Marlins reliever Logan Kensing.

Kensing's career major league profile:

• 9.1 hits/9 innings
• 5.1 BB/9
• 8.9 K/9
• 82 ERA+

Translation: gives up more than a hit an inning, walks way too many, has good strikeout numbers, but is a thoroughly mediocre 26 year-old RHRP.

I assume Logan's pre-trade physical included a check for the flashing light in his palm. Kensing will replace Jason "Harvey" Bergmann in the bullpen.

Bergy's career major league profile:

• 9.1 hits/9 innings
• 3.4 BB/9
• 6.8 K/9
• 85 ERA +

Translation: gives up more than a hit an inning, doesn't walk too many, average strikeout numbers, a mediocre 27 year-old RHRP.

Yes, this should be just what's needed to revamp the Nats bullpen. On the other hand, maybe this will do the trick.