Learning to Love the "Links"

Already this offseason the Nationals have been "linked" in one form or another to free agent starting pitchers C.J. Wilson, Mark Buehrle, Roy Oswalt and Edwin Jackson, as well as potential Japanese imports like Yu Darvish and Tsuyoshi Wada. And that's just the pitchers. The Nationals have also been named as a potential destination for free agent hitters from Prince Fielder and Jose Reyes to Grady Sizemore and Cuban refugee Yeonis Cespedes. Now the Nats aren't going to sign all, most, or necessarily even more than one of these guys. There's a possibility they'll end up with none at all. But even being in the conversation is a sometimes unsettling new reality for Nationals' fans.

A welcome side-effect of the team's status as newly-minted offseason players is a spirited debate among fans. Who's a better fit, Wilson or Darvish?  Oswalt or Buehrle for veteran staff-leader? What's the bigger risk, a Sizemore reclamation project or an unknown quantity like Cespedes?  Hot stove chatter is good for keeping baseball in the DC sports fan's consciousness, particularly now while the Redskins are imploding, the Wizards are locked out, and the Capitals are just beginning their long march toward a playoff berth. If the Nationals are going to become a year-round topic of local sports conversation, now is the time to get started.

Beyond the PR value though, the rumors are a sign that the Nationals have (finally) arrived as an MLB franchise. Fans can be forgiven for thinking that all this chatter is unusual, but really it's a result of the front office doing it's job. Mike Rizzo and his assistants should be making and fielding phone calls, kicking tires, examining all the options. This is what good teams do to get better and the only reason it feels novel is that for the first half decade of their most recent incarnation in DC the Nationals couldn't, or wouldn't participate in the process.

The team's "needs" for 2012 are fairly well defined. Someone has to play centerfield, and someone has to hit at the top of the order. Please, for the love of all things holy, note that these two roles do not have to be filled by the same person. The Nationals have been pursuing a "leadoff-hitting centerfielder" since 2005, with comically disastrous results.

Every thing beyond that is a "want". Rizzo wants to add another veteran starting pitcher, another bullpen arm, possibly a middle infielder and some big bats for the bench. These aren't quite luxuries, but they aren't indispensable either. Between the needs, the wants and the guys they have to find playing time for (Adam LaRoche, eight starting pitchers with 2011 MLB experience), there are a plethora of potential combinations, signings and trades for the Nationals this offseason. That's the biggest reason we're hearing the team's name pop up so often. (The other reason is leverage. Every free agent wants to be courted by as many teams as possible, and the Nats have a recent history of offering up big deals.)

Of course, the team probably doesn't see a fit for every player it's been linked to thus far, and even if it did it won't get them. The Nationals are not the only fish in the sea, nor are they the biggest. But they've finally graduated to swimming with the sharks, and fans will eventually learn to love the ride.

Bye Bye Bixler

Scrappy utility player Kory Casto Anderson Hernandez Pete Orr Alberto Gonzalez Brian Bixler was claimed off waivers today by the Houston Astros, ending his Nationals tenure after 79 games, 83 at-bats, a 205/267/265 batting line, and a few memorable plays like this one.

Now we can expect Stephen Lombardozzi to compete with a few veteran free agents (possibly including 2010 Syracuse standout Matt Antonelli) for the all-important utility position.  The waiver claim frees up one spot on the Nationals' 40-man roster.

Nate's Nats Notes - 11/2/11

If you're reading this (which I suppose you pretty obviously are) you may have noticed that Nats Triple Play went through some fairly significant content generation droughts in 2011. Some of that is the inevitable impact of running out of new things to say about this team after 6+ years, but more often it went something like:

1. Read/hear/see something interesting about the Nationals.
2. Think of an interesting (to me anyway) angle, start drafting a blog post.
3. Life Happens.
4. Issue is no longer relevant/I'm no longer interested/someone else has covered it better.

That happens a lot, and by and large I'm ok with it. There are a lot of great people (amateur and professional) out there writing about the Nationals and that's a good thing for the team, for fans and for baseball coverage in DC. Still, there are times like now when there are a lot of little Nats-related stories going around that don't merit a full-blown post, but I do want to get out of my head and in to a computer.

That's where Nate's Nats Notes comes in. Hopefully these will be catch-all/dumping grounds for smaller or tangentially-related Nationals news. And they won't always be from me, they could just as easily be Dave or Watson's Nats Notes, but that's less alliterative. So without further ado:


Rob Dibble Has Suffered For His Art - I don't like Rob Dibble. Didn't like the hiring, didn't care for his color work, am glad he's no longer associated with the team in any official capacity. For all those reasons, I hesitate to highlight his latest blowhard rantings, but there's just so much classically idiotic Dibble in there.  As for the assertion that his time as the MASN Nationals color guy was "the worst two years of my life", I can only say, "Right back at ya, asshat."

Players Love D.J. - I'm glad that Ryan Zimmerman and Drew Storen are glad that the Nationals are bringing back Davey Johnson to manage in 2012. It would certainly be bigger news if they weren't happy, and it would be a thumping great read if they publicly said they weren't happy, but I'm happy they're happy. Does this happiness mean the RZA is more likely to sign an extension this offseason? There's your story.


Bryce Harper is Going All Bryce Harper on the AFL - After a shaky intro to AA, a late season hamstring injury and a slow start in the Arizona Fall League, there was a teeny tiny bit of walking back the timeline on all-everything OF prospect Bryce Harper. Predictably he's now punishing pitchers in MLB's finishing school to the tune of .290/.357./.613 and once again generating talk about the date of his 2012 MLB debut. Whether he makes the team out of Spring Training or not, Harper's progress will impact the Nationals' search for a center fielder this offseason.

Turning Taiwanese, I Really Think So - And finally, a Michael Morse double is a no-doubter in any time zone. Ah, baseball.

Meet the New Boss, Etc.

Your clubhouse leader for least surprising press release of the 2012 offseason:

FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE                                                                                                                                     

Monday, October 31, 2011

DAVEY JOHNSON TO RETURN AS NATIONALS FIELD MANAGER IN 2012

          The Washington Nationals today announced they have exercised Davey Johnson’s managerial option for the 2012 season. Nationals Executive Vice President of Baseball Operations and General Manager Mike Rizzo made the announcement.

          Johnson will continue the on-field efforts he began on June 27, when he assumed the Nationals’ managerial helm. 

          “After a series of discussions, it became obvious that the Nationals would be best served if Davey Johnson would continue as manager,” Rizzo said. “Davey’s remarkable connection to the clubhouse and D.C. community during the season’s final three months was well received. His baseball acumen coupled with a proper off-season of planning, including a full regiment of Spring Training, should put our players in a position to succeed in 2012.”

          Johnson’s 2011 Nationals closed strong, winning 15 of their final 20 contests to register the best winning percentage in the NL from Sept. 9 through season’s end. In more than half a season with Johnson at the helm, the Nationals went 40-43 and a D.C.-based big league club finished as high as third place for the first time since 1945. 


*****
 Apart from being 100% expected, this is fine. Any manager who isn't purely a placeholder deserves at least one full season. In 2012 Davey will have his players executing his strategies. We'll see what happens.

UPDATE: WaPo's Adam Kilgore says that current bench coach Pat Corrales is stepping down, to be replaced "by a younger coach who could potentially replace Davey Johnson as the Nationals' long-term manager after the 2012 or 2013 season."

That too just makes sense, as Davey will be the oldest manager in baseball in 2012, and if the Nats have a successor in mind, it's probably good to lock him in, and get him an apprenticeship of sorts under D.J.. If the Nats are serious about contending in 2012 and beyond, they'll want a manager who is familiar with the players, rather than someone who is coming in cold from outside the organization. 

Checking Up on the 40-Man Roster

As you may have noticed, reports of our death, while not wildly exaggerated, were at least slightly premature. C'mon, it's not like anything interesting really happened in the last 3 months anyway. Have you seen the Nats blogosphere lately? It's all Mike Rizzo pledging to go out and fill the same two positions he was pledging to fill last offseason, and the gripping drama of what day Davey Johnson's press conference will be. You're not going to guilt-trip me for skipping that, are you?

In any case, we're back with a quick pre-free agency review of the Nationals' 40-Man Roster, complete with 2011 draft picks. The roster currently stands at 42 and includes two guys who will have to be taken off the 60-day IR in the offseason.

The Lead Pipe Locks (24) - Either by virtue of their contract or their status within the organization these guys will (barring a trade) absolutely be with the Nationals in 2012.

Relievers

• Sean Burnett* - re-established himself as the go-to lefty reliever in late 2011. Signed for $2.3M in 2012.
• Tyler Clippard - shut down set-up man has an argument for staff MVP. Arbitration eligible.
• Yunesky Maya - he's here because he's signed to a $2M major league deal next season, not because of his 5.23 ERA.
• Henry Rodriguez - erratic fireballer turned late inning reliever and possible closer-in-training? Pre-arbitration
• Drew Storen - the Nats young closer is great at what he does, and we have every reason to hope for more of the same in 2012. Pre-arbitration.

Starting Pitchers

• Ross Detwiler* - is 2012 the year Ross puts it all together? He'll get every chance to show it. Pre-arbitration.
• John Lannan* - put together his "best" season in 2011. No reason to think that he won't be smack in the middle of the 2012 rotation. Arbitration eligible.
• Tom Milone* - or, as I like to call him, "John Lannan, Jr.". Will compete for the 5th starter spot and/or ride the shuttle from AAA Syracuse. Pre-arbitration.
• Brad Peacock - see above, though Peacock is more likely to start the season at AAA. Pre-arbitration.
• Matt Purke* - 2011 3rd round draft pick, signed a major league deal. Currently pitching in the AFL.
• Stephen Strasburg - Dominant end-of-season cameo. $4.875M for innings limited 2012.
• Jordan Zimmermann - aka "Strasburg's Road Map". Arbitration eligible in 2012.

Catchers

• Jesus Flores - may not be happy as Ramos' back-up but he's too talented to just let walk away. Arbitration eligible in 2012.
• Wilson Ramos - solid season for the rookie backstop; may get more days off if partnered with a healthy Flores in 2012. Pre-arbitration.

Infielders

• Ian Desmond - which Desmond will show up in 2012: First half (bad) Ian or second half (good) Ian? Pre-arbitration.
• Danny Espinosa - same question, flip the desired answer. First half Danny was a ROY candidate. Pre-arbitration.
• Adam LaRoche - again, not so much by (non-existent) performance but by virtue of his $8M contract for 2012.
• Steve Lombardozzi - got his '11 cup of coffee, but probably better playing every day in Syracuse than coming off the bench in DC. Pre-arbitration.
• Chris Marrero - "top" 1B prospect figures to be a bench bat in 2012 because the farm is filling up beneath him. Pre-arbitration.
• Anthony Rendon - the other 2011 draft pick with a major league deal. Won't see DC in 2012.
• Ryan Zimmerman - because he's the RZA, that's why.

Outfielders

• Bryce Harper - Washington's uber-prospect still has to make his bones in AA, but could be patrolling the Nationals Park outfield in September. $1.75M contract for 2012.
• Michael Morse - only question is where he will play. Arbitration eligible.
• Jayson Werth - an outfield fixture in every sense of the word. $13.57M next year, and it only gets worse after that.

The 99% (4) - They aren't key pieces, but there's no reason to think that (barring a trade) these guys won't be back next season.

• SP/RP Tom Gorzelanny - wasn't a terrible starter, but was much better in limited duty as a reliever. Every bullpen needs a second lefty. Arbitration eligible.
• RP Cole Kimball - hard throwing righty out until at least mid-season 2012 recovering from surgery. Pre-arbitration.
• RP Ryan Mattheus - bad peripheral stats but good results equal a reliever who will get another chance in 2012. Pre-arbitration.
• RP Atahualpa Severino - maybe 2012 will be the season he gets to pitch meaningful innings as the bullpen's second lefty. Or maybe not. Either way he'll probably be around. Pre-arbitration.

The Bubble Boys ( 6) - Poor performance, lack of minor league options, or just wearing out their welcome could spell the end for these fellas:

• RP Collin Balester - never able to establish himself as a long reliever while riding the Syracuse shuttle, spring training 2012 will be make-or-break for the BallyStar. Pre-arbitration.
• OF Roger Bernadina - Roger has never shown enough to merit a starting job, so he'll likely be competing for the 4th OF job with a number of free agents. Arbitration eligible.
• UT Brian Bixler - Bixler does a little bit of everything, but not particularly well. Pre-arbitration.
• OF Corey Brown - a late injury spoiled his 2011 cup of coffee, and he didn't show much at AAA, but he'll still likely get a second shot at Syracuse. Pre-arbitration.
• RP Doug Slaten - yeah, he's gone.
• RP Craig Stammen - will likely compete with Balester for the righty long reliever spot in the 'pen. There can be only one. Pre-arbitration.

 The Free Agents (8) - There are no mutual obligations here, and the team's progress means that many of these (popular) veterans may have played their last season in Washington.

•  OF Rick Ankiel - Doesn't have the bat to hold down a starting gig anymore, but his otherworldly arm, "versatility" and veteran-y goodness mean he's the FA most likely to be re-signed as a 4th OF.
• INF Alex Cora - when your calling card is "better than Brian Bixler", it's probably time to go.
• RP Todd Coffey - Everyone loves a jolly fat man, so look for Coffey to re-sign once he's done with his offseason gig at the North Pole.
• OF Jonny Gomes - could be a bench bat in 2012, but there are better options.
• SP Livan Hernandez - Sentimental favorite, and willing to go to the bullpen, but probably squeezed out in a numbers game. Farewell, Livo.
• OF Laynce Nix - could be a bench bat in 2012, but neither he, Ankiel or Bernadina can hit lefties.
• C Ivan "Pudge" Rodriguez - fan favorite still brings great defense, but the Nats just don't have the ABs for him.
• SP Chien-Ming Wang - Most likely FA to re-sign and try to build on a strong finish to 2011. Contract negotiations are already under way.

Best guess? Wang and Ankiel re-sign, Balester, Bixler and Slaten are cut loose, and the Nats use the 2012 offseason to find a lead-off hitting OF, a left-handed reliever and a infield bench bat to supplement Flores, Marrero, Ankiel and Bernadina.

Universal Truths, Observed Realities & Umpiring

I love National Public Radio as much as the next East Coast liberal elitist, but there is such a thing a over-thinking an issue. Today's example: metaphysics and the theory of umpiring.

All pretentiousness aside, it's a good read, and will provide all sorts of philosophical underpinnings for your argument the next time you suggest that the home plate ump consult a seeing eye dog for assistance.

Or you could take my preferred approach, and simply accept that there is no spoon.

Jonny Gomes Isn't Jackie Robinson Either

So... the Washington Nationals organization didn't exactly cover itself in glory tonight, did it? The big boys got whipped by Florida (of course), AAA Syracuse found itself on the wrong end of a perfect game, and Nats director of player development Doug Harris felt the need to compare Bryce Harper to Jackie Robinson for reasons passing understanding.

As it happens I was in Bowie tonight watching Harper and his Harrisburg Senators 'mates take on the Baysox, so I can personally attest to the lack of racial slurs and spitting that attended Bryce's four at-bats. Given that the Prince George's County Stadium crowd was roughly 40% Nationals partisans, Harper was received with a mix of applause and good-natured heckling. He wasn't persecuted for the sins of middle class white teenagers, and the microscope he's under is largely of his own construction. Baseball's top prospect responded to the unparalleled pressure by going 0-3 with a walk, made a few routine plays in left field and generally looked like an 18-year old in his first tour of AA.

While all this was going on the Nats sent erstwhile Harrisburg OF Bill Rhinehart and Hagerstown closer Chris Manno to the Cincinnati Reds for OF Jonny Gomes, kicking off the 2011 trade deadline in earnest. Now Gomes isn't much of a fielder, but he has the instant distinction of being the only Nats outfielder who can hit left-handed pitching at all. (Did you know that Jayson Werth has a .636 OPS versus lefties this season? True story!)

Jonny also projects as a Type B free agent and, as has been noted elsewhere, he could end up netting the Nats a supplemental 1st round draft pick in 2o12. In essence, the Nats traded Rhinehart and Manno for a draft pick, and so we wouldn't have to see Laynce Nix and Rick Ankiel attempt to hit left-handed pitching any more. There's also a non-zero chance that Gomes' arrival spells the end of the Matt Stairs experiment. All in all, hard to be too upset about that.