Hook, Line, Sinker

What has six thumbs and three tickets to the June 4th game against the Reds? These guys!

I don't blame the Nats. Like Needham says, they bent over backwards not to say anything about when Jeezus will be incarnating in DC. (Contrarywise, seems like they could have said something about when he wouldn't be appearing.) Nor do I particularly blame Zuckerman, Goessling, et al. though this piece is a masterwork of backtracking. Educated guesswork is the lifeblood of journalism, but sometimes you're going to be wrong. In sportswriting this will get you mercilessly mocked on the interweb. In politics it will get you an Op-Ed column at the Washington Post.

One of the criticisms leveled at the Nats for manipulating Stephen Strasburg's service clock was that while they were saving money on his future contracts they were losing revenue in 2010 by not maximizing his major league starts. Clearly Stan Kasten devised a way around that problem. He's managed a near sellout of an otherwise unremarkable Friday night game in early June. Have cake? Check. Eat cake? Check.

Again, I don't blame the Nats. It was in their interest not to quash the June 4th speculation. We ought to understand by now that Stan, Mark and Uncle Teddy consider tickets sold the only appropriate barometer of success. Butts in the seats, or who those butts happen to be rooting for, is a secondary concern. I have no doubt that June 8th, or any other date will sell out just as quickly once Strasburg's promotion is confirmed. Hell, I might very well roll the dice again myself.

File Under Better Late Than Never

To make room for the return of Mike Morse the Nats are designating 5th OF/pinch runner (and inexplicable occasional starting right fielder) Willy Taveras for assignment. Taveras is such a typical Jim Bowden-type player that I'm surprised Rizzo didn't get more grief for bringing him aboard. His defense has been solid, but he's been a black hole offensively (38 OPS+) and even with his vaunted speed is just 1-3 in stolen base attempts. Taveras's best performance came in an April 10th win over the Mets, where he went 2-4 with 4 RBI.

I'd say this move has been a long time coming, but in truth, until Morse was healthy again there was no one in Syracuse that would have represented a serious upgrade. Justin Maxwell has put up better numbers, but the organization still hopes that he's more than just a reserve or platoon outfielder and is giving him one last shot to prove he deserves a larger role. It will be interesting to see what sort of time share Jim Riggleman works out for Harris, Bernadina and Morse in right. Morse was originally slated to take the short end of a lefty/righty platoon with Super Willie. That would consign Bernadina to the 5th OF/pinch runner role Willy T. just vacated.

Morse has the potential to be the Nats most offensively potent right fielder (note the damning with faint praise.) Defensively he's probably a step above Cristian Guzman, but several notches below Bernadina and Harris. Morse gives the team a little more flexibility because he can also "play" first base, though with only 85 innings of experience over four seasons it's not clear that he'd be a better defensive replacement than Adam Kennedy or even an upgrade over Adam Dunn.

A look at the roster after Morse's return highlights two ongoing concerns. One, the Nationals are still operating without a legitimate right fielder, and there's no one waiting in the wings to take over. Two, there's still no power on this team outside of the core of Zimmerman, Dunn and Willingham. When Mike Morse automatically becomes your big bopper off the bench, that's a problem. Fans are rightly focused on the arrival of Strasburg, Storen et al. to reinforce the pitching, but if the Nats are going to make a serious run at contention in 2010 Rizzo is going to need to do more in right field than just swapping Mike Morse for Willy Taveras.

Bryce Harper and the Tao of Rizzo

"Talent without character doesn't work. Your lack of character will make you stumble somewhere along the line." - Washington Nationals' General Manager Mike Rizzo

Never have I seen a clearer statement of Rizzo's organizational philosophy. The Rizzo ethic stands in clear contrast to Jim Bowden's "Tools uber alles" approach and penchant for giving talented but troubled ballplayers a second home. Based on the early results, you'd have to call this a clear win for the Tao of Rizzo, wouldn't you?

Here's the thing, though. The corollary to Rizzo's first sentence is "Character without talent doesn't work either." In fact, I'm pretty comfortable asserting that a lack of talent has tripped up many more ballplayers than have been laid low by a fundamental character deficiency. Given a choice everybody wants high talent, good character players. That's about as uncontroversial as wanting smart, good-looking kids.

The question is, what ratio of character to talent do you need to be a success? More importantly, if character is what we do when no one is looking, how the hell do you measure character? On a practical level, it becomes a circular argument: "Mike Rizzo puts a premium on character, so any guy he brings in must be a good character guy." Likewise, doesn't Rizzo have to say that any player he pursues has good character? After all, if you value character you wouldn't be interested in fractuous trouble-makers.

On the flip side, other teams might rightly suspect that any player the Nats are looking to unload comes with some baggage. (Josh Willingham improved his batting stroke this offseason by clubbing baby seals, you know.)

In conclusion, no one questions Bryce Harper's talent. So the more you see Nationals' front office-types defending Bryce Harper's make-up, the surer you can be that he'll be holding a Nationals' jersey in June. After all, if Rizzo's interested, Harper must be a good guy; and if Harper wasn't a good guy the Nats wouldn't be interested, right?

BernaDINGER!

Can we please get rid of Willy Taveras now?

No? Well, how about now?

Okay, but surely Willy's on the bus to Syracuse by now?

Play Bernadinger in right, play Super Willie in right, I don't care. Hell, play Mike Morse in right when he comes back. I've accepted that the Nats probably aren't going to have a right fielder who can hit and field consistently in 2010. Just get Willie Taveras off the roster.

*****

Know what else I noticed about this game? No Bruney!

Now I'm not saying that Brian the Bear is single-handedly responsible for at least 3 losses this season... no wait, that's exactly what I'm saying.

I didn't think it was possible to have less command of the strike zone than Joel "Gas Can" Hanrahan. I get that "missing bats" is a good thing for a hard-throwing reliever, but someone needs to remind Rizzo that missing bats because you're pitching a foot off the plate doesn't count.

Rizzo doesn't want to call up Storen for fear of having to pay him an extra $5M six years from now when he's still an effective closer (like Chad Cordero, Houston Street and all those other consistent young relievers). Fine, then how about Joel Peralta?

Chronicles of Pitching Depth: Volume 2

I think we've discovered the multi-part featurette that Adam Kilgore keeps in the can for a rainy off-day. Every one needs an obsession, I get that. I'm just not sure there's much more gold to mine from the tragic tale of Matt Chico and his inability to crack the AAA rotation. Chico was a mediocre (and lucky) pitcher on a very bad team. Now he's an older, surgically-repaired pitcher, competing with other failed major leaguers to be the mediocrest of them all. If there's a riveting story in that, I'm not seeing it.

*****

Your Improbable 2o11 First Baseman of the Week: Alex Gordon

The official NTP editorial position is that, in the abstract, the Nats should sign Adam Dunn to an extension. We figure the Dunnkeys alone are worth a million a year. Of course, the abstract could give way to a five year, $85M albatross, and nobody (except possibly Adam) wants that. With that in mind, this is the first in an occasional series of looks at the men who could, but probably won't, replace Dunn in DC in 2011.

Alex Gordon (aka the guy drafted two places ahead of Ryan Zimmerman) is in the doghouse in Kansas City. Gordon is undeniably guilty of not being the second best player selected in the 2005 draft. Apart from that, the 26-year old's particular sins are as follows: He doesn't hit for average; he'll probably never be a 30 HR hitter; he's not an elite defensive third baseman, and he's injury-prone.

On the flip-side, he takes a walk with the best of them, he's only a few years removed from being MILB Player of the Year, and a move from third to first probably improves his defense in the long run. Best case scenario? Nick Johnson v. 2.0. Yeah, he's probably not going to be the Nationals' first baseman in 2011, (see the headline). Still, any time a player with Gordon's talent is on the outs with his club, we should hope Rizzo is kicking the tires.

What Have the Phillies Dunn?

In case you somehow missed the news, Philadelphia today inked their star first baseman to a 20-year, 50 bajillion dollar contract extension. (Okay, it was 5 years, $125M, as though that makes it better.) It's rare to see a deal immediately and universally deplored, but that appears to be happening here. I'm sure someone, somewhere is lauding this as a great deal for the Phils, but I sure haven't seen it yet.

Now, as a Nats fan I'm perfectly content to see the Phillies misallocate resources on an epic scale. Perhaps Philly GM Reuben Amaro, Jr. thinks he's undergone some sort of Freaky Friday body exchange with Brian Cashman, or maybe he figures he'll be out of the picture long before Ryan Howard goes full-Albert Belle on this contract. That's fine. Philadelphia certainly has the money now, and if this is how their front office chooses to spend it, bully. But here's the problem with teams throwing that kind of money around; the repercussions impact everyone.

Craig Calcaterra has a pretty good run-down of the immediate winners and losers in Howard's new deal. Among the winners are Ryan himself, and the free agent first base class of 2011, including Albert Pujols, Prince Fielder and Adrian Gonzalez. Not mentioned by Calcaterra but slated to be a free agent first baseman this offseason? Our own Adam Dunn.

Howard's new contract extension complicates things for the Nats on a couple of fronts. One, it raises the market rate for defensively-challenged slugging first basemen on the wrong side of 30. This will make it more expensive to retain Adam, if the team is inclined to go that route. I'm not suggesting that Dunn will get, or even ask for, $25M/year, but it's not unreasonable to think that the price range for an extension may have gone up from $12-15M annually to $15-18M.

Second, and probably more important, if the Nats let Dunn walk, the cost of replacing him has also gone up. Even leaving aside Pujols, Fielder and Gonzalez, all of whom will likely command salaries equivalent to or greater than Howard's deal, a rising tide lifts all boats. Second-tier first basemen like Carlos Pena will have a new benchmark, and if Adam Dunn goes, the Nats are going to have a big void to fill.

Unless Chris Marrero shows something in AA Harrisburg pretty soon, the farm system's cupboard at 1B is more than bare. It's not just Dunn's offensive numbers that will have to be replaced (no easy task), it's the man himself. For better or worse he is the Nats most experienced first baseman. The idea of inserting Josh Whitesell or Chris Duncan as a stopgap can hardly be encouraging for a Nats franchise angling for a return to respectability over the next few seasons.

So feel free to chuckle at the Phillies today, but reserve a few tears to weep at what their profligacy may well mean for the future of your team.

Everybody Hurts

I know this is just the way things are done in baseball, but that doesn't make it any less aggravating. Jason Marquis has been scuffling since Spring Training. All the while, everyone from Rizzo to Riggleman to McCatty to Marquis himself swears up and down that it's mental, or mechanical, anything but physical. Then, all of a sudden they examine him and, lo and behold, his pitching elbow is chock full of grape nuts and ball bearings. Needless to say, he's DL-bound.

Okay, things crop up, I get that. Pitchers are used to a certain amount of pain, soreness and discomfort. Maybe it's hard to separate that from a new and different pain. That's why teams have trainers, team doctors, outside specialists, physical exams and MRIs. I'm no doctor, but floating bodies in the elbow doesn't sound like something you wake up with one morning after an ill-advised 3 am convenience store egg salad sandwich. After all, this is the same Jason Marquis whose 6.05 ERA last September got him left off the Rockies playoff roster.

Over the winter this franchise gave Jason Marquis more money than any pitcher in Nationals' history. I really hope they did their due diligence. This isn't Vinny Castilla for Brian Lawrence. There were a half dozen guys roughly equivalent to Marquis available this offseason, and somehow the Nats ended up giving $15M to the guy with the bum elbow. Seems like this has the potential to be another big black eye for the team's none-to-highly-regarded medical staff.

For all I know, "floating bodies" is the 2010 equivalent of Dontrelle Willis disorder. Jason Marquis certainly looks like a guy who could use a few weeks off and a low pressure rehab assignment. I'm not sure how time off is supposed to cure miscellaneous junk in the elbow though. Maybe it's a conservation of energy thing: floating bodies at rest tend to stay at rest? I guess we'll see. Is it June yet?

On a related note, I'm ignoring Zimmerman's cramp in the hopes that it will go away quietly. If he misses any significant time expect a remix of my post on how this team's vaunted "versatility" really won't be of any use in replacing key offensive production.