Were We So Wrong?

Alright, so maybe it's time to eat a little crow. (West Nile virus be damned.) The opening weeks of the season have forced me to reevaluate my stance on the Soriano-Wilkerson trade. As much as it pains me to admit it (and it pains me deeply,) Trader Jim may have lucked into something here.

A certain reknowned MLB.com quasi-journalist called the Soriano trade "the steal of 2006." It's hard to argue with the early returns. On the heels of his "I spit on your fences" 3-homer game last night Alfonso is averaging 1 dinger per home game, and his home/road split actually favors cavernous RFK. All the usual small sample size caveats apply to these stats, but it certainly looks like Soriano knows how to play long-ball at The Bobby. Unlike some of his teammates who share a common first name, Soriano has not been trying to take every ball to the deepest part of the park. All of his extra base hits (1 double, 4 homers) have been pulled to left, with all but one landing between the left field line and left center. So I'm inclined to think that Soriano will be okay at home, at least until pitchers abandon the inside of the plate entirely and force him to hit balls the opposite way.

On the other side of the ledger, Wilkie looks truly awful in Texas, hitting .191 with a Guzmanic .247 OBP and a strikeout count that would make Preston Wilson blush. Whether he's hurt or just off to a bad start, Brad's making it hard for me to miss him. Armando Galarraga has and uninspiring 7.71 ERA for the Rangers Double-A team, and the Padres just demoted Termmel Sledge to Triple-A to attempt to get his groove back after he batted .160 over the first 9 games of the season.

Now, having said all that, I still think this was a bad trade. Soriano is essentially a 1-year rental. Even if he decides he likes DC and wants to stay, he's not worth the 5-year/$50-60M deal he would probably want, and could get elsewhere. Whatever Wilkie's value now, he was easily our most valuable bargaining chip this offseason. And instead of trading him for a young veteran and some prospects, we'll end up with a 1-year display of Alfonso Soriano's offensive prowess, then nothing.

Soriano is a "win-now" acquisition for a team that isn't, or shouldn't be, in win-now mode. If the Nats were one power hitter away from contending for the NL East this would be a no-brainer, even at the cost of sacrificing outfield defense. But anyone who looked at the Nats roster last offseason and tabbed power-hitting corner outfielder as the most glaring need probably had one too many cocktails at dinner.