Happy Birthday to Us!

Turns out we're not dead, just extremely lethargic. Plus, a competently run winning organization just doesn't pique our morbid fascination the way the old Trader Jim/Sideshow Stan carnival used to do. Still, never let it be said that we won't bestir ourselves for a little self-congratulatory back-patting.

Nats Triple Play premiered this very day in 2005, and honestly it sorta marked the tail-end of that inaugural team's magical run. So... yeah... let's not talk about that. Here's to hoping this year's second half is considerably less anti-climactic. No promises that we're going to be particularly more active, but be assured that we are watching, and waiting with bated breath to see who gets to be the 2012 version of Preston Wilson and Junior Spivey. (My money was on Marlon Byrd and Orlando Hudson, so I'm out of the betting pool.)

So, once again, happy birthday to us, and happy all star break to the NL East-leading Washington Nationals.

The Digging and Filling of Holes

Zack Greinke wasn't coming to Washington, D.C. unless Boston's lineup and Philly's rotation agreed to come with him. That simple, seemingly indisputable fact renders all the digital ink spilled on the subject moot. And yet...

It's one thing to be spurned by Cliff Lee and told that the Phillies, Yankees or Rangers are closer to contention. None but the most over-eggnoged Nats fan would argue that point. It's quite another to lose the respectability derby to the Milwaukee Brewers. Taking nothing away from our beer-besotted brethren, the 2010 Brew Crew finished 77-85, 14 games behind the Reds in the NL Central and equally far removed from the Wild Card. They were one game better than Houston and two up on the Cubs. Milwaukee was a whopping 8 games better than the 2010 Washington Nationals. And yet...

The Nats are losers. This is true both from a purely statistical, technical point-of-view (412-599 since relocating before the 2005 season) and in the more intangible sense of having been a ward of the league with a grating carnival barker of a GM who presided over decisions ranging from questionable to side-show worthy. (Come see "Smiley Gonzalez", The Incredible Aging Boy!) At the same time the front office made the reasonable, but also bottom line-friendly, decision to focus on rebuilding the tattered Expo-Nats farm system at the expense of the big league club. Middling success in that effort has not come without a cost, as Harper notes here.

The side-effects of losing can be subtle. It can be getting Jason Marquis when you'd rather have had Jon Garland, or Adam Kennedy in lieu of Orlando Hudson. Sometimes losing doesn't even seem that bad, like when missing out on 7 years of Mark Teixeira forces you to "settle" for 2 years of Adam Dunn. But losing always has consequences. Every loss digs a hole, and it gets deeper year-by-year.

Filling the hole means paying superstar money to attract a merely very good outfielder, while hoping to replace a very good first baseman with an adequate, more reasonably priced fill-in. It means that even if you wanted to mortgage your farm system to bring in an ace, you can't. Zack Greinke knows as well as anyone in baseball what a rebuilding project looks like, from the inside out. When he looked at Washington, he didn't like what he saw.

Maybe the Nationals dodged a bullet. But it wasn't by choice. Unless Mike Rizzo is actually incompetent, or secretly in the employ of another NL East club, he wasn't actively trying to make the team worse by trading 4 or 5 young players to Kansas City. Clearly he thought Greinke would make the Nats better, perhaps even competitive. Clearly Zack disagreed, as had Cliff Lee, Mark Teixeira and who knows who else before him. As a Nats fan that's disappointing but not unexpected.

The fact that it's not unexpected is the problem, and it's one that the team doesn't seem to have an answer for. The Phillies get Cliff Lee, the Brewers get Zack Greinke, the Nats get Chien-Ming Wang. On the verge of the new year, that's a perfect an encapsulation of the state of the franchise. Happy Holidays, Nats fans!

This is a Job for WikiLeaks

As soon as Julian Assange is done wasting his time with the military, the diplomatic corps and the financial sector, he's got serious work to do. I want to know what the hell goes on in the front offices of the Washington Nationals. I want a raft of emails from Mike Rizzo, Mark Lerner, Stan Kasten, and Uncle Teddy explaining exactly how subtracting Adam Dunn from the roster improves the team.

I want to know the thought process that leads to this statement:

The Washington Nationals wish Adam Dunn and his family the best of luck and good will in Chicago. Adam contributed much to the Nationals and to the Washington, D.C. community. He will be missed, but will remain an important figure in the early history of this franchise and will always be a part of the Nationals baseball family.

This is the perfect sentiment to mark the departure of Brad Wilkerson: great guy, commercial spokesman, important figure in the early history of the franchise. As a response to the loss of one of the top sluggers in baseball, it is sorely lacking. Mark Zuckerman does a much better job.

Mike Rizzo is under no obligation to explain himself. When he does get around to addressing the media, you can count on a rehash of the above sentiments and some old classics about the value of team defense and improving through the draft. That's where the boys from WikiLeaks come in.

Does Mike Rizzo honestly believe that improved defense at first base outweighs the decreased offensive production (and there will be a deficit) generated by Dunn's replacement? Did the Nationals offer Adam a market value 3-year contract and just balk at the 4th year, or did they low-ball him? (If it really was 3/$36M, they low-balled him.) When did Mike Rizzo decide that Carlos Pena was Albert Pujols-lite? Seeing as how Dunn ended up with the White Sox anyway, what did Kenny Williams offer at the trade deadline, and was it better than a pair of draft picks?

Make no mistake, whether you agree with the move or not, the Nationals let Adam Dunn walk away over something like one year and $14M dollars, money that probably could have been deferred. Odds are they aren't spending that money on Cliff Lee, so they better get something good for irritating the star third baseman, blowing a hole in the lineup, and pissing off an already shrinking fanbase.

It's The Lerners' Team Now.

Sell the StanSpeak translator for scrap; Kasten is headed for the door. Boswell's oddly well-timed column has some background that will provide copious fodder for the recently diminished ranks of the "Teh Lerners are Cheep!!1!" movement. Chris Needham correctly assesses the likely fallout.

This is a gut-punch for a franchise in need of a drama-free offseason. Leaving aside the Adam Dunn contract situation the Nationals' roster looks to be as stable as it has ever been. The manager (for better or worse) and GM are both expected back, providing continuity of on-field leadership. But with Kasten, the face of the front office and head cheerleader for "The Plan", jumping ship any number of things could be thrown into flux. Rizzo was a Kasten hire, and Riggleman was Rizzo's choice. That chain of command is now broken. Who's in charge?

Of greater importance, the buffer between the owners and the public is gone. The Lerner-Kasten partnership was a Bud Selig-arranged shotgun wedding that apparently never really suited either party. Kasten was a good soldier, never publicly admitting to an inch of daylight between him and Ted Lerner on decisions. His track record provided gravitas and cover for four years poor performance and declining attendance. But Boswell suggests that Stan privately chafed at having his advice ignored. The next president will be a purely Lerner hire, and will tell us a lot about what to expect for the future of the franchise.

Have Ted and Mark Lerner internalized Kasten's lessons? Will Kasten's replacement be a baseball man given room to operate semi-autonomously, or a glorified accountant? Will the Lerners front the money to improve the major league team around the Zimmermen(n), Ian Desmond, Danny Espinosa and Wilson Ramos even if attendance plods along in the low-20,000s per game, or will they simply be happy to turn a profit on the strength of their publicly-financed stadium?

There's no one left to deflect these questions. "The Plan" has run it's course; the future is now. It's the Lerners' team. Time to watch what they do with it.

UPDATE: Someone break out the Lerner Language Lexicon. It's a "Don't let the door hit you." statement from Uncle Teddy.

Stan Kasten will always be an important part of the history of the Washington Nationals. He was vital to ownership winning its bid from Major League Baseball and his agreement to serve as the team’s chief executive for the last five years has been critical to building the Washington Nationals franchise.

Over his tenure he has positioned the Nationals to become one of the most exciting franchises in baseball and we thank him for all that he has accomplished.

We certainly respect his decision to pursue other interests at the end of the regular season, but will continue to call upon him for his vast knowledge of the game, the league and the franchise. He will remain a friend and valued partner of the team and ownership group.

Theodore N. Lerner
Managing Principal Owner

UPDATE II: In what I can only assume is a brilliant protest move, Jim Riggleman is fielding the worst Washington Nationals lineup I believe I have ever seen for today's 4:35 pm tilt with the Astros.

Espinosa – 2B
Kennedy – 1B
Desmond – SS
Morse – RF
Bernadina – LF
Ramos – C
Maxwell – CF
Gonzalez – 3B
Detwiler – P

Undoubtedly they'll win by 14.

Hook, Line, Sinker

What has six thumbs and three tickets to the June 4th game against the Reds? These guys!

I don't blame the Nats. Like Needham says, they bent over backwards not to say anything about when Jeezus will be incarnating in DC. (Contrarywise, seems like they could have said something about when he wouldn't be appearing.) Nor do I particularly blame Zuckerman, Goessling, et al. though this piece is a masterwork of backtracking. Educated guesswork is the lifeblood of journalism, but sometimes you're going to be wrong. In sportswriting this will get you mercilessly mocked on the interweb. In politics it will get you an Op-Ed column at the Washington Post.

One of the criticisms leveled at the Nats for manipulating Stephen Strasburg's service clock was that while they were saving money on his future contracts they were losing revenue in 2010 by not maximizing his major league starts. Clearly Stan Kasten devised a way around that problem. He's managed a near sellout of an otherwise unremarkable Friday night game in early June. Have cake? Check. Eat cake? Check.

Again, I don't blame the Nats. It was in their interest not to quash the June 4th speculation. We ought to understand by now that Stan, Mark and Uncle Teddy consider tickets sold the only appropriate barometer of success. Butts in the seats, or who those butts happen to be rooting for, is a secondary concern. I have no doubt that June 8th, or any other date will sell out just as quickly once Strasburg's promotion is confirmed. Hell, I might very well roll the dice again myself.

Stan to Fans: Come Back When We're Good

"[A]s anyone who has watched bad teams turn into good teams, in any sport, these problems dissipate as teams improve, as home teams followers get more numerous and more enthusiaistic."
- Stan Kasten, President, Washington Nationals

Good news, Nats fans: you can stop caring now! The team is lousy, so it shouldn't bother you that your stadium was overrun by barbarian hordes from the north, or that the ticket office is more interested in selling blocks of tickets to opposing fans than they are in providing single game tickets to locals, even season ticket holders. My only gripe with this Adam Kilgore piece is the headline. Phillies fans didn't have to infiltrate Nationals Park; they were invited in.

"We get the attendance we deserve." - Kasten

Sure, they somehow ran out of hot dogs and beer on Day 1 of the season, but you shouldn't care because you shouldn't even have been there! Given that they've done nothing to deserve DC fans showing up, it's no wonder they're both surprised and unprepared when we do. Really, it's a little rude for us to just show up uninvited. For all you know, you could have been gatecrashing one of Stan's prized special events.

"We sell season tickets and book groups all winter long. For every game of the season." - Kasten

Nothing personal, just business. Opening Day is just another game, Phillies fans are just more paying customers. But if that's the company line, why did they suddenly pull the plug on customers from the Jersylvaniware market in February? Did someone stop to consider the optics of having 25,000 booing, battery-tossers serenading the President on Opening Day in the Nation's Capital? Did someone think of the children?! Or did someone in the organization realize that they set the stage for a massive clusterf#$k, but it was too late to do anything about it.

I think our proudest accomplishment gets measured every home game during the season, when we see fans enjoying themselves at Nationals Park. - Mark Lerner, Principal Owner, Washington Nationals

To be fair, he didn't say, "when we see Nationals fans enjoying themselves at Nationals Park." It's undeniably true that lots of fans had a great time on Monday. Lerner and Kasten have always aspired to make the Nationals more than just another local baseball team. Lerner talks about the Nationals as "America's Team" (a moniker that any DC sports fan could tell you has serious negative connotations.)

As I've noted before, Washington, DC is perhaps uniquely suited to become baseball's great neutral site, everybody's house and nobody's home. A Nationals' game could easily become another must-see item on every tourist's agenda. The danger with that aspiration is that you run the risk of turning the home team into the Washington Generals. You'll be world renowned, make millions of dollars and everybody will leave the stadium happy, having seen their hometown "Globetrotters" demolish their opponent.

If that's ownership's vision for the franchise, so be it. But they should tell us so now, so the locals can adjust their financial, and more importantly, their emotional investment accordingly. On the other hand, if the Lerners and Stan Kasten really want to make the Nationals into a world-class franchise, they have to make the team a success for DC, not just a success in DC.

A Complete(ly Embarrassing) Game

Though I live just 150 miles from the city of Philadelphia, I have never been to a baseball game at Citizens Bank Park. And yet, I feel that I can say I have, because I attended Opening Day 2010 at Nationals Park. If the crowd was less than 70/30 Phillies fans I will eat my Replica BP Hat, hundreds of which probably ended up in trash cans immediately after being distributed to the Philly faithful. I'm not sure GEICO's going to be thrilled with that particular marketing expenditure.

The Phillies have a large and vocal fanbase (larger and more vocal since their recent run of success, but c'est la vie.) A good number of transplanted Pennsylvanians live in the DC metro area, and of course it's a relatively easy three hours down I-95 from the City of Brotherly Love itself. So it's not surprising that Philly baseball fans come to DC to take in a game. What rankles is when Washington fans feel like visitors, even interlopers, in their own park. From booing Ryan Zimmerman's awards presentations to serenading the visitors with nicknames and chants, the auditory experience of today's game was all Philly, all the time.

To quote the guy who threw out the first pitch, "Let me be clear." I don't blame the Philly fans. This is what they do. At home, on the road, on their couches, and for all I know, in their sleep. They're loud, boorish, not infrequently drunk, and at least as prone to pick fights with each other as with opposing fans. They've found a home away from home on South Capitol Street, and they treat it that way. The responsibility for the present state of affairs rests solely with the ownership and management of the Washington Nationals.

It was just last year when Stan Kasten went on the radio in Philly and all but begged the locals to turn our stadium into CBP-South. I'd say today's showing means it's Mission Accomplished. In the six seasons since baseball returned to Washington, DC I've been to every home opener and 100 more games besides. I was at two of the three games the Yankees played at RFK and the crowd there was much closer to 50/50. Maybe the Red Sox games were as lopsided, but hell, the Sox do that everywhere.

This was Opening Day. The game that was supposed to showcase Mike Rizzo's rebuilt, revitalized Nationals. I've seen a lot of embarrassing things on and off the field over six years of Nats fandom, but I was never embarrassed to be a fan of this franchise until today. I understand that Washington is a city of perpetual transplants, and local sporting events are always going to be forums for showcasing divided loyalties. I also accept that DC is a front-running town that loves to claim winners as its own. (I grew up here, I'm a big boy, I know the score.) But none of that provides an excuse for what I saw in the stands at Nationals Park today.

From a purely financial perspective, what matters is that tickets are sold, not who fills the seats, or even if the seats are filled. Ted and Mark Lerner and Stan Kasten can probably run a perennially profitable operation catering to transplants, tourists, visitors and everyone but DC baseball fans. Because those folks won't care that the right fielder is a light-hitting career utility man, or that the back half of the rotation is a cobbled together mess for the fifth year running. They won't notice that the farm system, for all the hype and blather about "building from the ground up", really hasn't produced anything all that remarkable. Why should the Philly fans of the world care that while the owner talks about spending money to compete, it never quite seems to happen? Those folks come to enjoy a nice stadium they didn't pay for and root for the visiting team to whip the Nats. More often than not, they leave happy, having deposited a few more dollars in Uncle Ted's alabaster piggy bank.

It's a system that works great, for everybody but the fans of the Washington Nationals. And if there are fewer of us every year, well, can you honestly be surprised? Half the time you can't find this organization with a compass and a map. They've buried a great radio team on a hit-and-miss AM signal. The TV rights are held hostage to an agreement that ought to be a case study on how not to negotiate a media contract. Advertising, to the extent that there is any, is mostly confined to these outlets. I'm not a marketing guy (I leave the flashy stuff to Dave) but it sure looks to me like the Nats are doing everything possible not to broaden their appeal to a wider audience, at least not if that audience is local.

I write this with no particular hope or expectation that things will change soon, or even at all. Lest you think that I'm simply a bitter crank, I'm happy to report that today on the banks of the Anacostia, the sun was warm, the beer (when available) was cold, and an afternoon at Nationals Park still beats a day at the office 100 times out of 100. But if we don't expect more, we certainly can't complain about never getting it...

*****

UPDATE: Also, what he said. And Needham expands on why we're all probably just talking to ourselves. $2,000,000 buys a lot of ear plugs.

Nats Eyeing Wang*

Mike Rizzo may not be officially "done" trying to add one more veteran arm to the 2010, but the search has clearly shifted from legitimate free agent upgrade (Jason Marquis) to the Nats old familiar haunt, Trader Jim's Bargain Bin and Retread Emporium, home of the likes of Miguel Batista and Chuck James. Quoth the Rizz, "There is nobody ... out there on the pitching market that is a difference maker." Which leads us to the newest item in the display case, ex-Yankee SP Chein-Ming Wang.

Wang is coming off back-to-back injury shortened seasons, and he's not expected to be ready to start the 2010 season. Add to that the fact that he's a ground ball pitcher on a team preparing to roll out Adam Dunn at 1B and a yet-to-be-determined middle infield (Orlando Hudson is not a defensive upgrade!!1!) and what we have here is an unstoppable recipe for success. Still, Rizzo is probably right. Wang is likely no worse than another rehab project like Eric Bedard or any of the cast of undistinguished fifth starters still available as free agents.

Trading for a starter would probably net a better player, but at the cost of opening up another hole in a still patchwork lineup. In the meantime, Rizzo just lost another potential fifth starter candidate when the Milwaukee Brewers claimed Marco Estrada off waivers. Hmmm... losing serviceable young starting prospects on waivers to clear roster space for fungible vets. Who does that remind you of?

*No, I'm not proud of that, but I'm not made of stone.

Could Have? Yes. Should Have?...

Now that the details of Aroldis Chapman's $30M deal with the Cincinnati Reds are beginning to firm up, (h/t to MLBTradeRumors) we can say with some confidence that it's a contract the Washington Nationals could have matched. It's a five year major league deal with a sixth year player option, but the money is spread out over ten years and Chapman's 2010 salary is only $1M. Chapman's service time clock will start immediately.

In a vacuum, a $30M major league contract is a big commitment to a still relatively untested amateur free agent. However, given the structure of the deal (average annual value of $3M) it's hardly a crippling financial burden, even for a smaller market club like the Reds. Given that, and the deplorable state of the Nats pitching pipeline behind Stephen Strasburg, should the Nats have shelled out $30M for a Chapman lottery ticket?

Yes.

First, let's deal with the Strasburg comparisons. Stephen Strasburg is better than Aroldis Chapman. He is today and will be for the immediate future; there's no serious debate on this question. Chapman's value lies in projecting what he might do if and when he harnesses his considerable tools. The projections range from total bust through lights-out lefty closer all the way to staff ace, but they're just projections. So paying Chapman more (in total dollars) than Strasburg or anyone else on the team who didn't just win a Gold Glove could cause a perception problem both in the clubhouse and among the general public.

Still, $30M spread over ten years shouldn't hamstring a club like the Nationals, playing in a market like Washington, DC. There's a vast difference between bad contracts and crippling contracts. Nats fans are all too familiar with bad contracts (Guzman, Kearns, Young) but none of those contracts seriously impeded the team's ability to make other moves. Likewise if Chapman flames out or becomes a left-handed Fernando Rodney, Cincinnati's 10-year commitment would likely be seen as a bad deal, but not an albatross that would sink the franchise.

Perhaps more than any other team in baseball the Nats have the potential revenue and readily available roster space that could be combined in a creative deal like the Aroldis Chapman contract. Perhaps Mike Rizzo and the front office concluded that he just wasn't worth the joint financial and time commitment. Certainly the Yankees, Red Sox and Angels, who could have easily matched the Reds dollar for dollar, took a pass. The Nats have a bad track record of being shortchanged by Cincinnati GMs. Here's hoping it didn't just happen again.

The Final Countdown

Nice of MLB to schedule an off day today. It's not as though Nats fan could use a distraction in the next few hours. By 12:01 tomorrow morning Washington will have concrete evidence that the franchise has either reached a turning point or that this generation of fans is wasting its time on the club. The stakes really are that high.

Forget Strasburg, Boras, Kasten, Rizzo, MLB, the players' union, the draft, the collective bargaining agreement and the future of sports in America. These next hours are about the Nationals and their fans. Plain and simple. Either the ownership, management and front office staff will step up and commit to making the Nationals competitive, or they will tacitly admit that they are perfectly happy to settle for a publicly funded stadium, steady media and merchandising profits and exclusive membership in the baseball owners club. Winning? Nice if it should happen, but secondary to protecting baseball's status quo.

Who the hell appointed the Nationals guardians of the best interests of baseball? Giving Strasburg $12M, $20M or $50M is "bad for baseball"? Says who? It might be bad for the owners, the commissioner, the league. Hell it might even be bad for the players and future draft picks if MLB institutes a salary cap and a hard slotting system. But bad for baseball? Baseball survived the Black Sox, the Negro Leagues, World War II, franchise relocation, Pete Rose, Barry Bonds and a tied All-Star Game. Baseball thrives everyday in dirt lots, American Legion fields and high schools and colleges all over the world. Stephen Strasburg could blow out his arm the day after signing or win 300 MLB games and baseball wouldn't change one iota.

I don't root for MLB, Bud Selig or the Lerners' financial portfolio. Signing Stephen Strasburg would be good for the Nationals. Having the best young pitcher in the game pitching in DC, NY and LA rather than Ft. Worth would be good for Major League Baseball. Having kids in Oakton, Anacostia or Silver Spring dream of growing up to be the next Stephen Strasburg would be good for baseball. Everyone agrees that Strasburg is a special talent. Why should I care whether the price of that talent is "record-breaking", "astronomical" or "outrageous"?

The Nationals have done nothing to earn the benefit of the doubt. Sure, they were "in" on Mark Teixeira, but at the end of the day they didn't get it done. Likewise with Aaron Crow. They negotiated, but when the clock struck midnight they were left holding a pumpkin. This year, the team has gone overslot to sign not one of their draft picks. Stephen Strasburg is not only all the eggs, he's the basket too.

In conclusion, a special word to Rob Dibble: "You sir, are an asshat." Quoth the Nasty Boy:

"And by the way, if you're the Lerners and Stan Kasten, you can't worry about what the bloggers and the media think of you. You can't bankrupt yourself and the system for one player."

News flash Dibbs. Bloggers are fans. I know for a fact that most Nats bloggers are also ticketholders. Which makes them paying customers. And if the Lerners and Stan Kasten are in the business of ignoring their customers now, DC residents probably have a right to be slightly put out at the $600M life-size chess board they built for King Teddy and the royal court. And, as an aside, if signing Strasburg is going to bankrupt the franchise or the "system" then wasn't the whole Teixeira negotiation (involving tens of millions more dollars over many more years) just a sham? What do you know that we don't, Rob?

For the next 12 hours, the clock is ticking on much more than just the Strasburg negotiations.

Hey Buddy, Wanna Buy a Bridge?

The open letter sent out this morning by the Washington Nationals is reprinted below in its entirety (and also available via D.C. Sports Bog). This opus would choke the StanSpeak Translator, but we here at Nats Triple Play feel ourselves equal to the task.

To Fans of the Washington Nationals, (Fans... plural. Love the optimism.)

No one is more dissatisfied in the first half of the 2009 Washington Nationals season than we are. (Thank God we get paid to be here.) Like you, we had hoped that some of our younger players would have matured faster (once we dumped them in AAA after 7 games,) and that the addition of some of our new veterans would have significantly improved our record from a season ago (without improving our pitching or defense). Our hope was that a solid club leadership would emerge on and off the field (we blame Dmitri for the lack of leadership) and that some intangible combinations (magic beans) would begin to click resulting in many winning streaks (two games is a streak, right?).

We definitely do see significant pieces materializing for the future (once Scotty gets the transporter working), and there have been many close, exciting games and optimistic bright spots (predictably ruined by the bullpen): Strong outings by John Lannan, the home run and RBI production of Adam Dunn, the All-Star selection and 30 game hitting streak of Ryan Zimmerman, and the recent addition of speedster Nyjer Morgan. (Yes folks, Nyjer Morgan is 4th on your list of season highlights.) Much (All) of the season, however, has been defined by weak relief pitching, poor defense, and youthful inconsistency (from 10-year veterans). We have tried to work through this period with patience and focus but now we are faced with mounting losses which (could actually threaten our jobs, and) are beginning to take a toll on our entire roster. Clearly, some changes are required as we prepare for the second half of the 2009 season and, more importantly, build for a competitive future (but rest assured those changes won't happen anytime soon).

Today, we announced that manager Manny Acta is being replaced on an interim basis by Jim Riggleman, (bad) veteran manager, (sacrificial goat) and currently the Nats bench coach. Both the Ownership and the entire Washington Nationals organization have the highest respect for Manny Acta and the role he has played in the short history of the Nationals. However, it is our belief that a fresh attitude and approach (more screaming) is necessary as we set out to improve our performance for the remainder of the year. We want to send a strong message to our clubhouse and our fans that the status quo is unacceptable (all of a sudden). We believe (all evidence to the contrary notwithstanding) that more is expected of everyone in the organization.

Baseball operations will be reevaluating all our players and our options for improvement over the next several months (and we have begun the process of legally changing Austin Kearns's name to Jason Bay). We hope to sign our 2009 draft choices by the August deadline (without actually spending any money, so don't hold your breath). We hope these new additions will join an already exciting Nationals youth movement headed by the likes of Lannan, Jesus Flores (may he rest in peace), Alberto Gonzalez (author of the memo conclusively demonstrating that Nationals baseball is not torture), Jordan Zimmermann and Craig Stammen on our current roster, and the likes of promising minor league stars like Chris Marrero, Michael Burgess, Danny (0-3, 2K) Espinosa, Derek Norris and Drew Storen, among many others. But, we also will be determining the viability of trades or roster upgrades that can be made without doing damage to the farm system (now DDT-free!) or the developing talent we expect to blossom within the next two years.

When we bought the Washington Nationals in the middle of the 2006 season - just under three years ago - we committed to a patient, long term approach (marked by indifference to the major league squad), building a strong farm system (compared to the dirt farm bequeathed us by Omar Minaya) and core foundation that would deliver a perennial and consistent contender (to Potomac); to provide a second-to-none family entertainment value at Nationals Park; and to investment and involvement in the metropolitan Washington DC community. Today we remain steadfastly committed to each component of that mission. We are proud to represent the National Pastime in the Nation's Capital, and we are proud to call the Capital area home (except for those of us with no ties to the area who live elsewhere).

We know we have a way to go, but the end result will be all the richer (f0r us) for the early days we've spent together at Nationals Park (siphoning your cash while fielding a AAAA team). We are getting better (at lying to you). We want you to be with us as the pieces of the puzzle come together. Your support is powerful to the Nationals and baseball in Washington (not as powerful as the support of Phillies, Mets, Red Sox, Cubs, Yankees, Braves and Cardinals fans, but still, you guys are swell). Thank you for your continuing patience and your commitment to a shared dream.

Sincerely,

Washington Nationals Baseball Club (What, you expected someone to actually sign their name to this horse pucky? Such a kidder, you are.)

Bustings Milledge

Whatever the immediate merits of the great Morgan-Burnett for Milledge-Hanrahan swap of '09 (the P-Rats clearly won the letter sweepstakes) it's hard to see this as anything but a loss for the Nationals. Nyjer Morgan and Sean Burnett may be competent major leaguers, an honest-to-goodness upgrade from the routine incompetence of the 2009 Washington baseballclub, but it's hard to see either of them being part of the "first great Nationals team," as much as I abhor the phrase. Weren't the Nats supposed to be in the business of stockpiling talented youngsters and building for the future? Unless "the future" has been radically redefined as 2010, I'm missing something here.

Sure, Lastings Milledge was a self-aggrandizing headcase with a gift for turning routine defensive plays into highlight reel-worthy miscues. That said, he was still just 24, an age when many good-if-not-great players are still figuring out their game in the high minors. Despite his well-documented struggles, he was one of the franchises most talented offensive prospects. Read into that what you will. Maybe this move is Milledge-specific, in which case there's not much more to say. It's hard to leverage a guy who was demoted to AAA a week into the season only to break his finger. Still, selling low on him for a guy who looks for all the world like Brandon Watson fulfilling his potential is a failure, regardless of spin.

On the other hand, maybe we really are seeing the first fruits of a Bowden-free organization. Couple the Milledge trade with a June draft low on toolsy, projectable high schoolers and heavy with more developed college and JuCo players. Perhaps the front office is developing a healthy scepticism of unfulfilled "potential". After all, who is really more valuable to the franchise, Lastings Milledge in Syracuse or Willie Harris in DC? Of course, the answer is the most value comes from developing Milledge to the point where he can supplant Harris. But these are the Nationals we're talking about.

Joel "Gas can"rahan is another story. He seems to have lost whatever fairy magic allowed him to get through the 2nd half of 2008 as a semi-reliable closer. If he can get his groove back in the Steel City, more power to him. Getting anything for his 7+ ERA at this point is a bonus. Sean Burnett is a lot like Hanrahan, a talented guy who seemed cursed to never figure it out. This season he has, so far. Is it an illusion? Who knows, who cares.

If this is the opening round of the purge, let me be the first (or the 1,000,001) to suggest that Ronnie Belliard, Dmitri Young, Austin Kearns and Jesus Colome can be liquidated without posing much threat to that aforementioned first great Nationals team. Sell, Rizzo, sell!

Prediction Challenge

So Chico @ WaPost put up a Prediction Challenge. I'm not on the ball enough to ask the other NTPers to do it with me, so here are mine... Happy Opening Day.

1. 2009 win total - 65

2. Attendance at Nationals Park (81 dates; last year's was 2.32 million) - 2.30 million. Half will be Red Sox fans.

3. All-star representative(s) - Adam Dunn

4. Adam Dunn's home run total - 32

5. Date of Stephen Strasburg's major league debut - 8/15/09

6. Nick Johnson's total games played - 100

7. Wins for John Lannan - 7

8. Percentage of season Dmitri Young spends in big leagues, not on DL - 25%

9. Josh Willingham's total at bats - 300

10. Innings pitched for Daniel Cabrera - 80

11. Team ERA leader - Lannan

12. Team batting average leader - Guzman, for Nate

13. Biggest surprise - That Jim Bowden was that much of a bad influence.

14. Biggest disappointment - I only get one?

15. Current minor leaguer (not counting Zimmermann) who will make an impact - A collection of people who will rotate through, and you wont learn their neames.

Bonus: Predict the Nats' rotation entering the last week of the season:
Impossible. Space and time do not allow for vision like this.

Talk amongst yourselves.

Uh-Oh, Odalis

Don't be too quick to pencil Odalis Perez into the 4th slot in the 2009 Nationals rotation. According to ESPN, Perez is having second thoughts about the $850K non-guaranteed minor legaue contract he verbally agreed to a few weeks back. It did seem like a really good deal for the Nats, but at the same time I'm not sure how much better the market for Odalis is going to get when guys like Tom Glavine and Pedro Martinez are still looking for work and getting offers in the $1.5M range.

Perez wants the Nats to increase the contract amount and guarantee his money, saying: "I will not accept any minor league contracts with no safeguards." Nevermind the fact that he accepted that exact contract prior to 2008 and had in fact agreed to do it again. Lesson for all you 1Ls coming off your first semester of contracts: Verbal agreements aren't worth the paper they're written on. Get it in writing. In the meantime, it sounds like Odalis will join Pedro in using the WBC as a showcase.

Should the Nats rework Odalis's contract? I'm torn. He did yeoman work for the rotation in 2008, and his performance was clearly worth more than $850K, but like my broker said before I stuffed him in the trunk and rolled that car into the lake, past performance is no guarantee of future results. Perez would be a nice security blanket, and if he's willing to take a 1-year guaranteed deal in the $2M range, he's worth having around.

Any more than that though, and it's time to roll the dice with Hill, Balestar, Zimmermann, Mock, Clippard, Martis and the AAA hordes. Remember, Odalis was plucked from baseball purgatory in 2008, following in the proud tradition of Esteban Loiaza and Tim Redding before him.

Plus, I just hate guys who welsh on their deals.

NatsTown, USA. Population: ?

Because Natopia was too on the nose?

I hate cutesy, theme-driven ad campaigns. Marketing is all about inducing people to buy things that they would otherwise be indifferent to owning. Really good products/companies/sports teams don't market themselves. They don't have to, because the product speaks for itself. Sure, they advertise: "This is where we are; this is what you have to do to get us." but they're selling a thing, not a feeling or state of mind.

Bad teams dream up elaborate campaigns to distract from the product on the field. The Nationals can't just say: "Come see winning baseball at Nationals Park this summer!" because odds are on any given day, you won't. They can't say "Come marvel at the play of [established superstar]!" because apart from Zimm's slick fielding and flair for one dramatic game-ending homer per season, there hasn't been much to "Ooh" and "Ahh" over since Soriano left NatsTown.

In the absence of a tangible result, the Nats have to market the "experience" and the "community." That's fine, but it doesn't make a virtue out of the necessity to advertise around the team instead of advertising the team.

P.S. Whether it's a lousy catchphrase or not, sorry Caps fans, we've had dibs on "Get Your Red On" since the Nats-Cubs series of 2006.

Josh Willingham Thinks He's An Outfielder

So says Chico Harlan. But hey, Soriano thought he was a 2nd baseman. And Da Meat Hook thought he was small, earth-orbiting satellite.

Preston Redux?

Beyond the Box Score calls new Nats RHP Preston Larrison "Chris Schroder deluxe." Perhaps the Christmas play is saved after all. But the last Preston in DC didn't work out so well...

The Whitney - Young Bridge

The Nats signed Cleveland farmhand and former Rule 5 pick Matt Whitney to what shall henceforth be known as the "Pete Orr Special", a minor league deal with an invite to spring training and a promise that, "Gosh, of course you'll be in the mix to make the big club." Riiiiiiiight. Akron's decidedly non-slugging 1B hit .268/.356/.404 at AA last season, production that suspiciously resembles Larry Broadway's .266/.354/.410 line at AAA Columbus.

Perhaps no one has mentioned this to Jim Bowden, but making over a terrible team usually doesn't involve resigning a bunch of role players who were on that team at some point last season. By my count, the roster of potential Opening Day first basemen in the Nats system now includes:

• Nick Johnson (brittle)
• Josh Willingham (outfielder)
• Dmitri Young (fat)
• Kory Casto (bad)
• Ronnie Belliard (short, fat, 2B) and
• Matt Whitney (worse)
  

Notably absent from the list:

• Larry Broadway (minor league free agent)
• Bill Rhinehart (Larry Broadway, Jr.) and
• Mark Teixeira (not enough money in Congressional bailout package)

Buck sez Matt and Meat are fighting it out for the honor of Opening Day starting 1B in Syracuse, at which point the Chiefs demand a mulligan on this whole association thing. In the meantime, if Trader Jim has his heart set on putting the band back together he could at least bring back Langerhanscendentalism!

Reassembling the 2005 Cavaliers

The Nats made a minor move today, swapping pitchers with the Cubbies. Leaving the farm, 21-year old lefty reliever Ryan Buchter, who pitched 24 good innings between Rookie and Low-A ball this season, but has otherwise been unremarkable in 70 innings over 3 seasons. In exchange the Nats get 25-year old righthander Matt Avery, who's put up a pedestrian mid-4 ERA over two stints at AA the last two seasons.

Normally I don't like minor league pitching swaps that make the Nats older and less left-handed, but I'll make an exception in this case because it stocks the minors with another member of the 2005 Virginia Cavaliers. Avery played with Zimm at UVA and was the next Wahoo drafted in '05 after Dutch. And that was a pretty good Virginia team, reaching the regionals at the College World Series that season.

Still needed to complete the set: Jeff Kamrath, Mike Ballard, Tom Hagan (also a punter for the footbawlin' Hoos), Sean Doolittle (tearing up the A's minors), Brandon Guyer, Casey Lambert, Beau Seabury, Mike Mitchell and Pat McAnaney (an Arizona draftee). Go to work boys.

In other news, NFA has the goods on the disturbingly undersized 2008 class of international signees. Apparently, "The Plan" is not valid in the D.R., Venezuela, or the Far East. Dang fine print.

And for 2009... we're choosing to be homeless.

As Nate alluded to in a previous post, the NTP crew has made our season ticket decision for 2009.

Like a great many other folks, we will not be renewing our ticket package.

I in particular have taken a lot of grief over the years for my pro-season ticket holder stance. (See "The Business of Baseball" and "Value of Investing in the Team") So this represents a major change in our thinking as fans and “investors”, if you will, in the team. An explanation is in order.

First and foremost, there’s just no added value in owning season tickets to the Washington Nationals. We aren’t in line for preferred seating at the new ballpark. Frankly, hanging onto our tickets from RFK didn’t get us where we wanted to go anyway, and at this point, we’re not looking to increase our investment to snag “better” seats than Section 223. At best, we’d be looking to continue our current spending, but there are better uses for our hard-earned money. The economy IS down, and justifying a big expenditure on tickets is much harder now than it was several years ago, particularly when there are other ways to get the same or better seats with less outlay.

The final straw was my experience with the Padres/Nats game on Saturday. Watson had the tickets, and was taking his family. Ticket price was $25 per ticket, and we sit in Section 223, Row L, seats 8 to 11. My wife and I decided we wanted to go, as well. So off to Stubhub I went, looking for seats. What did I find? Section 223, Row C, Seats 9 and 10... For $12 each. LESS THAN HALF what we pay for our seats farther back, and I didn’t have to reserve anything. Not a thing! Yes, it’s the Padres. But what this showed me was that I could see plenty of baseball, move around the stadium AND get better seats, for significantly less! How about buying a game in Section 104? Then one in 123? Then one up in 402? Then back to 223? Odds are we can practically pick the seats and still spend less than we’re committed to now, at least for 2009.

Now, let’s be honest. The Nats 2009 aren’t going to the playoffs. They just aren’t. The team has gotten worse — much worse — in the short we’ve been watching. I’m looking for a better season next year, but in the words of the immortal Jim Mora, “Playoffs? PLAYOFFS!?!”. So any though of purchasing tickets in hope of having first pick for the post season is folly. We’ll all be happy to be a 81-81 team again, and that ain’t getting you to the playoffs.

What’s more, apologies to Boz, but the Lerners aren’t spending any money. They aren’t paying rent! Say what you will about the stadium not being “substantially complete” , Mr. Lerner, but the city delivered a habitable, useable major league stadium, on-time and on budget. We know because we were there. You look petty — AND CHEAP — with this rent withholding nonsense. It’s bad PR, and when I’m sitting here deciding on my renewal, it doesn’t inspire me with confidence in your commitment to improving the team. Stan the Man may have the Plan, but I don’t see anything turning around fast enough to make 2009 much better than 2008. Certainly not playoff worthy, which is the prime incentive to secure a whole season’s worth of tickets to this mess.

Is the schedule worth it? Securing good seats for premium games? Next year, Opening Day and the last game of the season are both on the road. No special games there. Memorial Day — road. July 4 — home. Labor Day — no game. A 3 game home series with Boston might be a draw, but the annoying Bahstan fans factor is pretty damn high. Looking at the 2009 schedule, there isn’t much worth “securing”. No big first game in the new park. No Opening Day. No Closing Day. Can’t really say there’s anything here that I need to have.

And even if there was, the Nats aren’t even close to selling out the stadium. You can walk up and buy a seat anytime you want, and even with no planning, you can probably get better seats than you’ll get in a reasonably priced season package. If the ownership chooses to push the fans away by not even trying, well, I’m finally done rewarding them. I have every confidence that in a year or two I can line back up for season tickets and get as good or better than what I have now. With season ticket purchases dropping each and every year, the trend suggests that taking a year off won’t cost me any ground.

You need me more than I need you, Mr. Lerner. I can buy what I want anytime I want. You need me to commit to a season ticket purchase to help prop up your revenue base. Your corporate sponsorships haven’t appeared, the demand for tickets isn’t there, and you can’t sell those $400 seats. And now the economy is in the tank to boot. You may not have needed me in 2006, but you will in 2009. You’re in it for the cash too, Mr. Lerner, and I’m looking to get value. And what am I getting for my season ticket commitment? From where I sit, not much.

Thus, we’re not renewing. We’ll be at the stadium in 2009. I’m sure of that. But we’ll be there on our terms.

PS – Who am I kidding? They’ll make their money back from us on half smokes, Miller Lights and helmet sundaes. It’s not for nothing that MLB is a six and a half billion dollar business.

Last Days of Lenny?

The Nats are starting the September call ups a little early this year, but instead of adding a 3rd catcher and a few spare bullpen arms, the team has added an extra coach. AAA hitting instructor Rick Eckstein, older brother of the quintessential scrappy white infielder, will be joining the big club "to become an extra hitting coach and do anything else manager Manny Acta wants him to do."

Like helping Lenny Harris clean out his office and pack up his car?

As the article notes, this is the third time in the last five years that the team has added an extra coach for the closing weeks of the season. This may be a month-long tryout for Eckstein, or just a chance to get an extra set of eyes and hands on our struggling hitters, but it can't be seen as anything other than an indictment of the work done by Harris, who has coached one of the worst offenses in MLB history.

We know Rick Eckstein has ample experience working with young hitters, from his time in the Nats farm system, to his just-completed Olympic stint with Team USA. So Godspeed, Rick. Feel free to start with Bonifacio and work your way down the lineup.