Nats Triple Play

The Worst-Case Scenario Opening Day Roster

2012-01-10T20:55:00.000-05:00

The Nationals' off season to date has been characterized by a marked lack of activity on the position player front. No major free agents (Sorry, Mark DeRosa does not qualify as a blockbuster signing.), no "big" trades; lots of sound, very little fury (apart from certain quarters of the fanbase). Signifying what, exactly?

Unlike seasons past, when the plan for the winter was less roster upgrade than roster overhaul, the Nats approach 2012 with relatively well-defined needs. Foremost among the holes to be filled, a centerfielder and a lead-off hitter, either separately or all in one player. The free agent market for lead-off hitting centerfielders was less than impressive even before Grady Sizemore re-signed with Cleveland, and Coco Crisp is a cereal, not a solution.

Remaining free agents like Cuban Yeonnis Cespedes or trade targets like B.J. Upton are centerfielders, but not classic leadoff hitters. And now the jungle drums are rumbling that Mike Rizzo may wait until 2013 to upgrade the outfield, even as Buster Olney suggests that the team may be eyeballing ex-Nat Marlon Byrd in the Cubs on-going fire sale. And all of this leaves aside the looming, ever-expanding profile of the Prince of Milwaukee, Wisconsin's very own Hamlet. "To be or not to be?" is indeed the question, but not one we're concerned with today.

Today we're looking at the Opening Day 25-man roster as though the franchise was frozen in time on January 10, 2012. No more bench bats or bullpen arms, only what Mike Rizzo has to work with as of right this moment. With that in mind, I give you your 2012 Washington Nationals:

Starting Pitchers: S. Strasburg (R), G. Gonzalez (L), J. Zimmermann (R), C. Wang (R), J. Lannan (L)

First Thoughts - Easily the best rotation since baseball returned to Washington, DC. Three potentially legitimate top-of-the-order starters, and the 4/5 pitchers are slotted below their ability.

Relief Pitchers: D. Storen (R), T. Clippard (R), H. Rodriguez (R), S. Burnett (L), R. Mattheus (R), T. Gorzelanny (L), R. Detwiler (L)

First Thoughts - This bullpen could easily be as good as the 2011 version, but in a perfect world one of the lefty long relievers would be swapped for a right-hander and there'd be one more veteran arm to support the youngsters.

Starting Eight: W. Ramos (C), A. LaRoche (1B), D. Espinosa (2B), R. Zimmerman (3B), I. Desmond (SS), M. Morse (LF), M. Cameron (CF), J. Werth (RF)

First Thoughts - If there were an award for Comeback Lineup of the Year, the Nationals would be strong contenders. The team will need bounce back years from LaRoche, Zimmerman, Desmond & Werth to stay competitive. The inclusion of ageless Mike Cameron shines a harsh spotlight on the Nats' on-going struggles in centerfield.

Bench: J. Flores (C), M. DeRosa (UTIL), S. Lombardozzi (INF), R. Bernadina (OF), C. Tracy (UTIL)

First Thoughts - Equal parts question marks and potential, but if the season started today the bench would once again be a weakness. If Flores and DeRosa have overcome their injuries they'll be solid contributors, but it's unreasonable to expect too much from the rest.

*****

The Nationals have made tremendous progress and fans have every reason to hope for a winning record in 2012, but significant holes remain, and there's no clear-cut path to filling them. Thank goodness Mike Rizzo still has 40 days until pitchers and catchers report to fine-tune his team.

N.B. - There is one glaring absence from the Opening Day roster, a Mr. Harper. First, please observe that this is The Worst-Case Scenario Opening Day Roster. Second, slotting Bryce Harper in as the Opening Day rightfielder and pushing Jayson Werth into center may nominally resolve some questions, but it's not a panacea. Harper's presence in the starting lineup creates problems of its own. But that's a topic for another post.

Learning to Love the "Links"

2011-11-08T16:22:00.000-05:00

Already this offseason the Nationals have been "linked" in one form or another to free agent starting pitchers C.J. Wilson, Mark Buehrle, Roy Oswalt and Edwin Jackson, as well as potential Japanese imports like Yu Darvish and Tsuyoshi Wada. And that's just the pitchers. The Nationals have also been named as a potential destination for free agent hitters from Prince Fielder and Jose Reyes to Grady Sizemore and Cuban refugee Yeonis Cespedes. Now the Nats aren't going to sign all, most, or necessarily even more than one of these guys. There's a possibility they'll end up with none at all. But even being in the conversation is a sometimes unsettling new reality for Nationals' fans.

A welcome side-effect of the team's status as newly-minted offseason players is a spirited debate among fans. Who's a better fit, Wilson or Darvish? Oswalt or Buehrle for veteran staff-leader? What's the bigger risk, a Sizemore reclamation project or an unknown quantity like Cespedes? Hot stove chatter is good for keeping baseball in the DC sports fan's consciousness, particularly now while the Redskins are imploding, the Wizards are locked out, and the Capitals are just beginning their long march toward a playoff berth. If the Nationals are going to become a year-round topic of local sports conversation, now is the time to get started.

Beyond the PR value though, the rumors are a sign that the Nationals have (finally) arrived as an MLB franchise. Fans can be forgiven for thinking that all this chatter is unusual, but really it's a result of the front office doing it's job. Mike Rizzo and his assistants should be making and fielding phone calls, kicking tires, examining all the options. This is what good teams do to get better and the only reason it feels novel is that for the first half decade of their most recent incarnation in DC the Nationals couldn't, or wouldn't participate in the process.

The team's "needs" for 2012 are fairly well defined. Someone has to play centerfield, and someone has to hit at the top of the order. Please, for the love of all things holy, note that these two roles do not have to be filled by the same person. The Nationals have been pursuing a "leadoff-hitting centerfielder" since 2005, with comically disastrous results.

Every thing beyond that is a "want". Rizzo wants to add another veteran starting pitcher, another bullpen arm, possibly a middle infielder and some big bats for the bench. These aren't quite luxuries, but they aren't indispensable either. Between the needs, the wants and the guys they have to find playing time for (Adam LaRoche, eight starting pitchers with 2011 MLB experience), there are a plethora of potential combinations, signings and trades for the Nationals this offseason. That's the biggest reason we're hearing the team's name pop up so often. (The other reason is leverage. Every free agent wants to be courted by as many teams as possible, and the Nats have a recent history of offering up big deals.)

Of course, the team probably doesn't see a fit for every player it's been linked to thus far, and even if it did it won't get them. The Nationals are not the only fish in the sea, nor are they the biggest. But they've finally graduated to swimming with the sharks, and fans will eventually learn to love the ride.

Bye Bye Bixler

2011-11-03T16:00:00.000-04:00

Scrappy utility player ~~Kory Casto~~ ~~Anderson Hernandez~~ ~~Pete Orr~~ ~~Alberto Gonzalez~~ Brian Bixler was claimed off waivers today by the Houston Astros, ending his Nationals tenure after 79 games, 83 at-bats, a 205/267/265 batting line, and a few memorable plays like this one.

Now we can expect Stephen Lombardozzi to compete with a few veteran free agents (possibly including 2010 Syracuse standout Matt Antonelli) for the all-important utility position. The waiver claim frees up one spot on the Nationals' 40-man roster.

Nate's Nats Notes - 11/2/11

2011-11-02T14:07:00.000-04:00

If you're reading this (which I suppose you pretty obviously are) you may have noticed that Nats Triple Play went through some fairly significant content generation droughts in 2011. Some of that is the inevitable impact of running out of new things to say about this team after 6+ years, but more often it went something like:

1. Read/hear/see something interesting about the Nationals.
2. Think of an interesting (to me anyway) angle, start drafting a blog post.
3. Life Happens.
4. Issue is no longer relevant/I'm no longer interested/someone else has covered it better.

That happens a lot, and by and large I'm ok with it. There are a lot of great people (amateur and professional) out there writing about the Nationals and that's a good thing for the team, for fans and for baseball coverage in DC. Still, there are times like now when there are a lot of little Nats-related stories going around that don't merit a full-blown post, but I do want to get out of my head and in to a computer.

That's where Nate's Nats Notes comes in. Hopefully these will be catch-all/dumping grounds for smaller or tangentially-related Nationals news. And they won't always be from me, they could just as easily be Dave or Watson's Nats Notes, but that's less alliterative. So without further ado:

Rob Dibble Has Suffered For His Art - I don't like Rob Dibble. Didn't like the hiring, didn't care for his color work, am glad he's no longer associated with the team in any official capacity. For all those reasons, I hesitate to highlight his latest blowhard rantings, but there's just so much classically idiotic Dibble in there. As for the assertion that his time as the MASN Nationals color guy was "the worst two years of my life", I can only say, "Right back at ya, asshat."

Players Love D.J. - I'm glad that Ryan Zimmerman and Drew Storen are glad that the Nationals are bringing back Davey Johnson to manage in 2012. It would certainly be bigger news if they weren't happy, and it would be a thumping great read if they publicly said they weren't happy, but I'm happy they're happy. Does this happiness mean the RZA is more likely to sign an extension this offseason? There's your story.

Bryce Harper is Going All Bryce Harper on the AFL - After a shaky intro to AA, a late season hamstring injury and a slow start in the Arizona Fall League, there was a teeny tiny bit of walking back the timeline on all-everything OF prospect Bryce Harper. Predictably he's now punishing pitchers in MLB's finishing school to the tune of .290/.357./.613 and once again generating talk about the date of his 2012 MLB debut. Whether he makes the team out of Spring Training or not, Harper's progress will impact the Nationals' search for a center fielder this offseason.

Turning Taiwanese, I Really Think So - And finally, a Michael Morse double is a no-doubter in any time zone. Ah, baseball.

Meet the New Boss, Etc.

2011-10-31T11:18:00.002-04:00

Your clubhouse leader for least surprising press release of the 2012 offseason:

FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE

Monday, October 31, 2011

DAVEY JOHNSON TO RETURN AS NATIONALS FIELD MANAGER IN 2012

The Washington Nationals today announced they have exercised Davey Johnson’s managerial option for the 2012 season. Nationals Executive Vice President of Baseball Operations and General Manager Mike Rizzo made the announcement.

Johnson will continue the on-field efforts he began on June 27, when he assumed the Nationals’ managerial helm.

“After a series of discussions, it became obvious that the Nationals would be best served if Davey Johnson would continue as manager,” Rizzo said. “Davey’s remarkable connection to the clubhouse and D.C. community during the season’s final three months was well received. His baseball acumen coupled with a proper off-season of planning, including a full regiment of Spring Training, should put our players in a position to succeed in 2012.”

Johnson’s 2011 Nationals closed strong, winning 15 of their final 20 contests to register the best winning percentage in the NL from Sept. 9 through season’s end. In more than half a season with Johnson at the helm, the Nationals went 40-43 and a D.C.-based big league club finished as high as third place for the first time since 1945.

*****
Apart from being 100% expected, this is fine. Any manager who isn't purely a placeholder deserves at least one full season. In 2012 Davey will have his players executing his strategies. We'll see what happens.

UPDATE: WaPo's Adam Kilgore says that current bench coach Pat Corrales is stepping down, to be replaced "by a younger coach who could potentially replace Davey Johnson as the Nationals' long-term manager after the 2012 or 2013 season."

That too just makes sense, as Davey will be the oldest manager in baseball in 2012, and if the Nats have a successor in mind, it's probably good to lock him in, and get him an apprenticeship of sorts under D.J.. If the Nats are serious about contending in 2012 and beyond, they'll want a manager who is familiar with the players, rather than someone who is coming in cold from outside the organization.

Checking Up on the 40-Man Roster

2011-10-30T19:47:00.000-04:00

As you may have noticed, reports of our death, while not wildly exaggerated, were at least slightly premature. C'mon, it's not like anything interesting really happened in the last 3 months anyway. Have you seen the Nats blogosphere lately? It's all Mike Rizzo pledging to go out and fill the same two positions he was pledging to fill last offseason, and the gripping drama of what day Davey Johnson's press conference will be. You're not going to guilt-trip me for skipping that, are you?

In any case, we're back with a quick pre-free agency review of the Nationals' 40-Man Roster, complete with 2011 draft picks. The roster currently stands at 42 and includes two guys who will have to be taken off the 60-day IR in the offseason.

The Lead Pipe Locks (24) - Either by virtue of their contract or their status within the organization these guys will (barring a trade) absolutely be with the Nationals in 2012.

Relievers

Sean Burnett* - re-established himself as the go-to lefty reliever in late 2011. Signed for $2.3M in 2012.
Tyler Clippard - shut down set-up man has an argument for staff MVP. Arbitration eligible.
Yunesky Maya - he's here because he's signed to a $2M major league deal next season, not because of his 5.23 ERA.
Henry Rodriguez - erratic fireballer turned late inning reliever and possible closer-in-training? Pre-arbitration
Drew Storen - the Nats young closer is great at what he does, and we have every reason to hope for more of the same in 2012. Pre-arbitration.

Starting Pitchers

Ross Detwiler* - is 2012 the year Ross puts it all together? He'll get every chance to show it. Pre-arbitration.
John Lannan* - put together his "best" season in 2011. No reason to think that he won't be smack in the middle of the 2012 rotation. Arbitration eligible.
Tom Milone* - or, as I like to call him, "John Lannan, Jr.". Will compete for the 5th starter spot and/or ride the shuttle from AAA Syracuse. Pre-arbitration.
Brad Peacock - see above, though Peacock is more likely to start the season at AAA. Pre-arbitration.
Matt Purke* - 2011 3rd round draft pick, signed a major league deal. Currently pitching in the AFL.
Stephen Strasburg - Dominant end-of-season cameo. $4.875M for innings limited 2012.
Jordan Zimmermann - aka "Strasburg's Road Map". Arbitration eligible in 2012.

Catchers

Jesus Flores - may not be happy as Ramos' back-up but he's too talented to just let walk away. Arbitration eligible in 2012.
Wilson Ramos - solid season for the rookie backstop; may get more days off if partnered with a healthy Flores in 2012. Pre-arbitration.

Infielders

Ian Desmond - which Desmond will show up in 2012: First half (bad) Ian or second half (good) Ian? Pre-arbitration.
Danny Espinosa - same question, flip the desired answer. First half Danny was a ROY candidate. Pre-arbitration.
Adam LaRoche - again, not so much by (non-existent) performance but by virtue of his $8M contract for 2012.
Steve Lombardozzi - got his '11 cup of coffee, but probably better playing every day in Syracuse than coming off the bench in DC. Pre-arbitration.
Chris Marrero - "top" 1B prospect figures to be a bench bat in 2012 because the farm is filling up beneath him. Pre-arbitration.
Anthony Rendon - the other 2011 draft pick with a major league deal. Won't see DC in 2012.
Ryan Zimmerman - because he's the RZA, that's why.

Outfielders

Bryce Harper - Washington's uber-prospect still has to make his bones in AA, but could be patrolling the Nationals Park outfield in September. $1.75M contract for 2012.
Michael Morse - only question is where he will play. Arbitration eligible.
Jayson Werth - an outfield fixture in every sense of the word. $13.57M next year, and it only gets worse after that.

The 99% (4) - They aren't key pieces, but there's no reason to think that (barring a trade) these guys won't be back next season.

SP/RP Tom Gorzelanny - wasn't a terrible starter, but was much better in limited duty as a reliever. Every bullpen needs a second lefty. Arbitration eligible.
RP Cole Kimball - hard throwing righty out until at least mid-season 2012 recovering from surgery. Pre-arbitration.
RP Ryan Mattheus - bad peripheral stats but good results equal a reliever who will get another chance in 2012. Pre-arbitration.
RP Atahualpa Severino - maybe 2012 will be the season he gets to pitch meaningful innings as the bullpen's second lefty. Or maybe not. Either way he'll probably be around. Pre-arbitration.

The Bubble Boys ( 6) - Poor performance, lack of minor league options, or just wearing out their welcome could spell the end for these fellas:

RP Collin Balester - never able to establish himself as a long reliever while riding the Syracuse shuttle, spring training 2012 will be make-or-break for the BallyStar. Pre-arbitration.
OF Roger Bernadina - Roger has never shown enough to merit a starting job, so he'll likely be competing for the 4th OF job with a number of free agents. Arbitration eligible.
UT Brian Bixler - Bixler does a little bit of everything, but not particularly well. Pre-arbitration.
OF Corey Brown - a late injury spoiled his 2011 cup of coffee, and he didn't show much at AAA, but he'll still likely get a second shot at Syracuse. Pre-arbitration.
RP Doug Slaten - yeah, he's gone.
RP Craig Stammen - will likely compete with Balester for the righty long reliever spot in the 'pen. There can be only one. Pre-arbitration.

The Free Agents (8) - There are no mutual obligations here, and the team's progress means that many of these (popular) veterans may have played their last season in Washington.

OF Rick Ankiel - Doesn't have the bat to hold down a starting gig anymore, but his otherworldly arm, "versatility" and veteran-y goodness mean he's the FA most likely to be re-signed as a 4th OF.
INF Alex Cora - when your calling card is "better than Brian Bixler", it's probably time to go.
RP Todd Coffey - Everyone loves a jolly fat man, so look for Coffey to re-sign once he's done with his offseason gig at the North Pole.
OF Jonny Gomes - could be a bench bat in 2012, but there are better options.
SP Livan Hernandez - Sentimental favorite, and willing to go to the bullpen, but probably squeezed out in a numbers game. Farewell, Livo.
OF Laynce Nix - could be a bench bat in 2012, but neither he, Ankiel or Bernadina can hit lefties.
C Ivan "Pudge" Rodriguez - fan favorite still brings great defense, but the Nats just don't have the ABs for him.
SP Chien-Ming Wang - Most likely FA to re-sign and try to build on a strong finish to 2011. Contract negotiations are already under way.

Best guess? Wang and Ankiel re-sign, Balester, Bixler and Slaten are cut loose, and the Nats use the 2012 offseason to find a lead-off hitting OF, a left-handed reliever and a infield bench bat to supplement Flores, Marrero, Ankiel and Bernadina.

Universal Truths, Observed Realities & Umpiring

2011-10-27T14:08:00.001-04:00

I love National Public Radio as much as the next East Coast liberal elitist, but there is such a thing a over-thinking an issue. Today's example: metaphysics and the theory of umpiring.

All pretentiousness aside, it's a good read, and will provide all sorts of philosophical underpinnings for your argument the next time you suggest that the home plate ump consult a seeing eye dog for assistance.

Or you could take my preferred approach, and simply accept that there is no spoon.

Jonny Gomes Isn't Jackie Robinson Either

2011-07-26T23:27:00.003-04:00

So... the Washington Nationals organization didn't exactly cover itself in glory tonight, did it? The big boys got whipped by Florida (of course), AAA Syracuse found itself on the wrong end of a perfect game, and Nats director of player development Doug Harris felt the need to compare Bryce Harper to Jackie Robinson for reasons passing understanding.

As it happens I was in Bowie tonight watching Harper and his Harrisburg Senators 'mates take on the Baysox, so I can personally attest to the lack of racial slurs and spitting that attended Bryce's four at-bats. Given that the Prince George's County Stadium crowd was roughly 40% Nationals partisans, Harper was received with a mix of applause and good-natured heckling. He wasn't persecuted for the sins of middle class white teenagers, and the microscope he's under is largely of his own construction. Baseball's top prospect responded to the unparalleled pressure by going 0-3 with a walk, made a few routine plays in left field and generally looked like an 18-year old in his first tour of AA.

While all this was going on the Nats sent erstwhile Harrisburg OF Bill Rhinehart and Hagerstown closer Chris Manno to the Cincinnati Reds for OF Jonny Gomes, kicking off the 2011 trade deadline in earnest. Now Gomes isn't much of a fielder, but he has the instant distinction of being the only Nats outfielder who can hit left-handed pitching at all. (Did you know that Jayson Werth has a .636 OPS versus lefties this season? True story!)

Jonny also projects as a Type B free agent and, as has been noted elsewhere, he could end up netting the Nats a supplemental 1st round draft pick in 2o12. In essence, the Nats traded Rhinehart and Manno for a draft pick, and so we wouldn't have to see Laynce Nix and Rick Ankiel attempt to hit left-handed pitching any more. There's also a non-zero chance that Gomes' arrival spells the end of the Matt Stairs experiment. All in all, hard to be too upset about that.

Michael Morse, Suicide King

2011-07-07T00:24:00.002-04:00

For goodness sake, VOTE FOR MORSE!

Snakebitten

2011-06-24T10:31:00.003-04:00

This team cannot catch a break. We draft one of the most heralded pitchers in recent memory and he lives up to the hype only to have his arm fall off. Then we draft a wunderkind who has all the physical gifts needed to be great at this game and who may or may not be a potential clubhouse cancer. We lose our face-of-the-franchise third baseman for the first third of the season. Then miraculously everything seems to be coming together. We get Ryan back, we go on tear winning 11 of 12 and the team fights its way to a .500 record and then one game over. Things are looking up.

And then the manager decides to replace the stadium fireworks with his career. Regardless of who you think is right or wrong, this team cannot catch a break.

Answer Unclear, Ask Again Later

2011-06-21T18:16:00.003-04:00

Are the 2011 Washington Nationals surprise NL Wild Card contenders or just slightly better than expected playoff pretenders? The next 10 days should tell us quite a bit about the suddenly scrappy boys in red, white and blue.

Starting tonight the Nats play a nine game stretch versus the Mariners, at the White Sox, and at the Angels before wrapping up June with an off day. All three clubs are hovering right around the .500 mark, providing additional evidence of this season's unusual parity. Seattle, like Washington has ridden a better than expected pitching staff into contention in a year when Texas was supposed to run away with the AL West. M's starters Doug Fister, Erik Bedard and Michael Pineda are probably the best trio the reconstituted Nats lineup has faced, and while their offense is not good, that didn't exactly stop the Padres from rolling the Nats, did it?

After that the team hits the road to take on under-performing squads in Chicago (Hi, Big Dunnkey!) and Anaheim (aka Los Angeles). Both clubs have struggled at times but are talented enough to blow the Nats out of the water if the team that showed up Sunday versus the Orioles makes a repeat appearance. A club with serious playoff aspirations would expect to win all three of these series, or at worst take 2 of 3 at home and 3 of 6 on the road. By June 30th we'll know if these Nats are more than just talented enough to reel off a random win streak.

But even with that out of the way it's not at all clear that this year's Nats have the tools to compete. In fairness they weren't really meant to. Any National League club that carries a full-time pinch hitter is not seriously thinking playoffs. This was supposed to be the bridge season to 2012 - Strasburg, possibly Harper (and now perhaps Rendon) to go along with the Zimmermen(n), Jayson Werth, a more seasoned Ramos, Espinosa, and Desmond and Clippard, Burnett and Storen at the back of the 'pen. Improvement, including a run at .500 was in the cards, but nobody was talking playoffs.

They are now, but that talk will need to translate into action to improve the CF defense and the OBP at the top of the order, find a reliable fifth starter, add at least one more (left-handed) arm to the bullpen, and maybe a utility infielder better than Alex Cora and/or Brian Bixler. The Nats will also have to commit to keeping Jason Marquis and mini-Morse Laynce Nix around past July 31st, meaning Rizzo would have to dip into the farm to make upgrades to the big league clubs.

Is that the right path to take? Harper clearly thinks not. I'm less of a believer in the success cycle myself, and more of a Nats fan, so it's a harder call for me. If the Nats come home on June 30th two games over .500 and reel off a winning record at home in the 10 games leading up to the All-Star break, it's going to be awfully difficult for me to get on the "Break Up the Nats!" bandwagon.

Among other things, 2012 will be Strasburg's first post-TJ season, so it's hard to see him being dominant even in the best case. The best case would also feature at most 2/3 of a season of 19 year old Bryce Harper, rookie Anthony Rendon and a few rookie pitchers (perhaps AAA LHP Tom Milone and AA RHP Brad Peacock), who while they look intriguing in the minors will have virtually no MLB experience. Tough to see that being a significantly more playoff caliber club.

But all this is cheap progNATStication. The next 10 days will tell us more about who the 2011 Nationals are, and where they're headed. Stay tuned.

Drew Storen > Aaron Crow

2011-05-02T14:59:00.002-04:00

Erstwhile never-quite-a-Nat Aaron Crow was just named Kansas City's pitcher of the month for April. The lefty reliever worked 12 1/3 scoreless innings, striking out 11 and stranding all 10 runners he inherited. That's nice work for a setup man, no doubt, but Crow was supposed to be a starter, a dominant lefty that the Nats could pair with Jordan Zimmermann atop the rotation.

Of course, as we all know, it didn't work out that way. Drafted by the Nats in the first round in 2008, Crow balked at the Nats contract offer and spent a year pitching for the independent Fort Worth Cats before re-entering the draft and signing with Kansas City. Harsh words were leveled at the front office and ownership in the immediate aftermath, and the consensus was that Crow's flight was a serious failure, to be mitigated only if the Nats' compensation pick, reliever Drew Storen, ended up being better than Crow.

On the face of it, those were long odds. Aaron Crow was a starter, Storen a relief pitcher. Even the best relievers rarely provide anything approaching the value of an average starting pitcher. Here's the thing though, once in the minor leagues Crow wasn't an average starting pitcher; he was terrible. ERA over 5 in hi-A ball terrible. No 3rd pitch terrible. Just plain terrible.

Storen, meanwhile, blew through the minors, literally and figuratively, balancing his pitching responsibilities with duty as Stephen Strasburg's unofficial spokesman. He made his MLB debut on May 17, 2010 and went on to post an ERA+ of 113 over 55 innings, including 5 saves. Storen's matched that save total already in 2011, with an ERA+ of 660 (over 15 innings).

By all rights there is a lot of baseball ahead of both these young men, but here are their career lines to date:

None of this excuses the process that led to the botched 2008 draft, but knowing what we know now, it's hard to think the Nationals didn't come out on top in spite of themselves. A little over a month from now, Drew Storen will have two years of professional baseball experience, Aaron Crow almost three. By the numbers you'd have to take Storen every time, wouldn't you?

Not Dead Yet

2011-04-27T16:24:00.003-04:00

Whew, this once a month posting schedule is punishing. Much like watching Chad Gaudin pitch. Which we won't have to do for at least two weeks.

Apparently the enormous sucking force generated by his 6.48 ERA placed an insupportable strain on his shoulder, causing inflammation. Get well, Chad, but not soon. And have your doctor take a look at Doug Slaten too, hmmm? He may have elbow tendonitis, or a prolapsed colon or something, dontchathink?

Coincidentally, Henry Rodriguez is ready to join the big club. God works in mysterious ways. The bullpen may still be shaky, but they just got much more intimidating.

Beyond Baseball

2011-03-22T12:30:00.003-04:00

WaPo's Barry Svrluga was the chronicler of baseball's return to Washington, D.C. in 2005, so it's only fitting that he authored this heart-breaking, inspiring story of Chad Cordero's most recent return to the game following the sudden death of his infant daughter.

For those of us who mark the spring of 2005 as the return of our interest in baseball, the members of that inaugural Nationals team will always hold a special place in our hearts. Livan, John Patterson, Nick Johnson, Joey Eischen, Brian Schneider, Jose Vidro, Jon Rauch, and, of course, The Chief will always be connected to D.C., regardless of where they've gone and what they've done since.

More on the story, and back-story, here. It's a useful counter-point to stories of athletes living outsized lives who are in the news for all the wrong reasons. Svrluga's piece is also a poignant reminder of what a great writer Nats fans lost when Barry was "promoted" to his current beat. Take a break from Spring Training and read it.

Our thoughts and prayers go out to Chad and his family, with best wishes for his current comeback effort.

Spring Training in Photos

2011-02-22T17:12:00.009-05:00

Clearly we've been on a bit of a blogging hiatus here at NTP, but some things just can't pass unremarked. This is either a training exercise or a particularly unsavory clause in Jayson Werth's $126M contract:

Shots like that are why Mark Zuckerman gets paid the big bucks. Is that a camouflage bungee? Of course it is. Now for your daily double, speaking of big bucks:

Meet new 1B Adam LaRoche (center) and the Buck Commander Team, courtesy of Curly W Live. I'm with Mottram on this one, who would have guessed that replacing Adam Dunn would up the redneck factor at first base?

Finally, this is a few days old, but worth commenting on:

I'm not sure that Roger Bernadina can win the left field job outright over Mike Morse and Rick Ankiel, but I'm pretty sure he could bludgeon them to death if he had to. Those Dutch trainers must mix a mean protein shake.

Not Quite Good to the Last Drop

2011-01-27T14:15:00.003-05:00

Look, when the Nationals DFA Justin Maxwell to make room for Todd Coffey you're going to get puns. Deal with it.

There was a time when I thought Justin could be another homegrown draw for a franchise that desperately needs to forge connections to its community. A Maryland native and University of Maryland grad, Maxwell would have formed a great 1-2 punch with Ryan Zimmerman. Both were 2005 draft picks. Justin would have been UMD to Zimm's UVA, cannon-armed outfielder and slick-gloved infielder, Stevie Wonder to Ryan's Frank Sinatra. Alas it was not meant to be.

A series of Nick Johnson-esque injuries prolonged Maxwell's road to the majors, and walk-off dramatics aside, he never showed enough with the bat to earn regular playing time. He never hit for contact, struck out more than you'd like to see in a guy who had just okay minor league power numbers, and didn't hit either lefties or righties well enough to distinguish himself as a platoon candidate. Justin peaked as a 5th OF/defensive replacement/pinch hitter, and his fate was more or less sealed when the Nats signed Rick Ankiel earlier this offseason.

This may not be the end of the road for J-Max in DC, but it is a sizeable pothole. The team has 10 days to trade Justin, release him, or attempt to clear him through waivers back to the minors. A 27 year-old outfielder with a 201/319/379 career line isn't likely to be enticing trade or waiver wire bait, so there's a fair chance Maxwell will be back at AAA Syracuse in 2011.

Down on the Farm

2011-01-18T17:09:00.003-05:00

The acquisition of Tom Gorzelanny does not make me tingle in my special places. (In case you were curious, my special places are Charlottesville, Edinburgh, and Montego Bay.) He's youngish and left-handed, which can be accounted pluses, but also wildly inconsistent both in terms of results and underlying stats. He strikes me as another version of Lannan/Marquis/Livo/Maya, but not necessarily a better one. However, I come neither to bury Gorzelanny nor to praise him.

I'm more interested in what the trade that brought him to DC says about the Nats farm system. As has been noted, Washington sent OF Michael Burgess and pitchers AJ Morris and Graham Hicks to Chicago in exchange for Tom Ter...adequate. None of the three was a consensus Top Ten prospect, though Burgess did sneak onto the bottom of a few lists courtesy of big power and a cannon arm in right field. Coupled with those tools was pitch recognition and strike zone discipline that was postively Pena-esque, and that's Wily Mo, not Carlos. Still, Burgess was rightly recognized as the centerpiece of the return for the Cubs.

Morris and Graham are both good not great young arms who, barring unexpected improvement, will probably max out as big league middle relievers. Burgess has the raw tools to succeed, but will never progress if he can't learn to identify and lay off a curve ball in the dirt. You can argue over whether these three players represent a fair return for Gorzelanny. What you can't dispute is that Burgess, Morris and Hicks, a quad-A slugger and two back-end starter/middle reliever-types are mid-level Nationals prospects.

The cream of the farm system basically begins and ends with proto-phenom Bryce Harper. Catcher Derek Norris has great plate discipline, but needs to reestablish his power and demonstrate the tools to stay behind the plate because his ceiling at 1B is basically Nick Johnson with less pop. Beyond Harper and Norris it's tough to identify any premier offensive prospects.

On the mound, starting pitchers Sammy Solis and A.J. Cole are highly regarded, but so were Ross Detwiler and Jack McGeary not so long ago. More established youngsters like Tom Milone and Brad Meyers have back-of-the-rotation skill sets. Way too much is riding on Stephen Strasburg's rehab and Jordan Zimmermann's continued development.

To be sure, the farm system would be much more impressive if youngsters like Strasburg, Danny Espinosa, Drew Storen and Wilson Ramos hadn't already graduated to significant roles in DC, but great teams have a prospect pipeline. The Nationals have a prospect sprinkler.

The Digging and Filling of Holes

2010-12-19T17:58:00.004-05:00

Zack Greinke wasn't coming to Washington, D.C. unless Boston's lineup and Philly's rotation agreed to come with him. That simple, seemingly indisputable fact renders all the digital ink spilled on the subject moot. And yet...

It's one thing to be spurned by Cliff Lee and told that the Phillies, Yankees or Rangers are closer to contention. None but the most over-eggnoged Nats fan would argue that point. It's quite another to lose the respectability derby to the Milwaukee Brewers. Taking nothing away from our beer-besotted brethren, the 2010 Brew Crew finished 77-85, 14 games behind the Reds in the NL Central and equally far removed from the Wild Card. They were one game better than Houston and two up on the Cubs. Milwaukee was a whopping 8 games better than the 2010 Washington Nationals. And yet...

The Nats are losers. This is true both from a purely statistical, technical point-of-view (412-599 since relocating before the 2005 season) and in the more intangible sense of having been a ward of the league with a grating carnival barker of a GM who presided over decisions ranging from questionable to side-show worthy. (Come see "Smiley Gonzalez", The Incredible Aging Boy!) At the same time the front office made the reasonable, but also bottom line-friendly, decision to focus on rebuilding the tattered Expo-Nats farm system at the expense of the big league club. Middling success in that effort has not come without a cost, as Harper notes here.

The side-effects of losing can be subtle. It can be getting Jason Marquis when you'd rather have had Jon Garland, or Adam Kennedy in lieu of Orlando Hudson. Sometimes losing doesn't even seem that bad, like when missing out on 7 years of Mark Teixeira forces you to "settle" for 2 years of Adam Dunn. But losing always has consequences. Every loss digs a hole, and it gets deeper year-by-year.

Filling the hole means paying superstar money to attract a merely very good outfielder, while hoping to replace a very good first baseman with an adequate, more reasonably priced fill-in. It means that even if you wanted to mortgage your farm system to bring in an ace, you can't. Zack Greinke knows as well as anyone in baseball what a rebuilding project looks like, from the inside out. When he looked at Washington, he didn't like what he saw.

Maybe the Nationals dodged a bullet. But it wasn't by choice. Unless Mike Rizzo is actually incompetent, or secretly in the employ of another NL East club, he wasn't actively trying to make the team worse by trading 4 or 5 young players to Kansas City. Clearly he thought Greinke would make the Nats better, perhaps even competitive. Clearly Zack disagreed, as had Cliff Lee, Mark Teixeira and who knows who else before him. As a Nats fan that's disappointing but not unexpected.

The fact that it's not unexpected is the problem, and it's one that the team doesn't seem to have an answer for. The Phillies get Cliff Lee, the Brewers get Zack Greinke, the Nats get Chien-Ming Wang. On the verge of the new year, that's a perfect an encapsulation of the state of the franchise. Happy Holidays, Nats fans!

On Rizzo & Responsibility

2010-12-06T16:47:00.005-05:00

Let's get this out of the way first: I firmly believe that Jayson Werth's 7-year, $126M contract is a bad deal for the Washington Nationals. It is an overpay both in dollars and in years, and Werth would need to defy both physics and history to come close to earning his salary.

That said, there is a strain of analysis that says that this is not just a bad contract of the sort that every franchise will, at one time or another give out. Rather this is an epically, unprecedentedly bad contract, a blight on the Nationals' franchise and an affront to baseball itself. ESPN analyst Keith Law put it this way:

Giving a 32-year-old position player who has qualified for the batting title exactly twice in his major league career a guaranteed seven-year deal for over $100 million isn't just a bad move.

It's irresponsible.

The full piece is behind ESPN's Insider paywall, (Well worth the investment, just don't let them send you the magazine or you'll never be rid of it.) but it's such a sterling archetype that I'm going to excerpt a bit more in a few paragraphs. First though, I want to tackle that second sentence. Is this contract irresponsible?

Appointing the "least drunk" guy in the car designated driver is irresponsible. Spending your rent money on lotto tickets is irresponsible. Putting the half-term governor of an obscure state a heartbeat away from the presidency is irresponsible. Overpaying a 31-year old right fielder for his age 32-38 seasons may be ill-advised. It may be flat dumb. But is it irresponsible?

To answer that you'll have to decide who Rizzo and the Nationals are responsible to. The Werth contract undeniably blew up the free agent market and reset salaries. Do Rizzo and the Lerners owe it to the other 29 clubs not to make bad deals? Hell, no. Free agency is a free-for-all. So Carl Crawford gets a 7-year, $140M contract. How is that the Nationals' problem? When the Nats embarked on their quixotic bid for Mark Teixeira nobody called the contract he ultimately signed with the Yankees irresponsible. So maybe the Red Sox had to renegotiate Adrian Gonzalez's extension b00-freakin'-hoo. When another GM starts steering reasonably-priced quality players to the Nationals, then we can talk about mutual responsibility. Of course, another word for mutual responsibility is collusion.

The Nationals are undeniably responsible to their fans. (Note: responsible, not responsive, otherwise this week's big free agent signing would have been Adam Dunn.) Is the Werth contract irresponsible on that front? On behalf of the fanbase, I'm going to say no. Jayson Werth is a good player. I want good players on my team. As for the length and the amount? Heck, it ain't my money. Well, it is in some sense, but it's not like the Lerners' were going to roll back ticket prices and start handing out half smokes but for this deal. I want the Nationals to be better. Werth makes the Nationals better. As a fan, I'm sold.

Mike Rizzo does have a responsibility to the franchise. He is obligated to use the resources he is given wisely and to put his team in the best position to win. Is signing Werth for 7 years and $126M irresponsible? Ah, now here's your argument. Let's go back to Keith Law:

[I]f you as a GM or owner feel the market is forcing you to "overpay" for a free agent because your team isn't good, maybe you should improve your team first through the draft (where, I should point out, the Nationals spent money and added a lot of talent in 2010) and wait for that supposed free-agent premium to disappear. That is, if free agents don't want to come to your team because your team stinks, the first solution is to make your team better.

In this view, the Werth contract was irresponsible because that $18M a year could be better used to draft and sign young, cost-controlled players. Splashy free agent signings should be back-burnered until they are the "last piece of the puzzle", when presumably you won't have to over-pay to get them. This is a pretty standard sabermetric trope. Expensive free agents are only for teams at the top of the competitive curve. Otherwise they are a waste of resources.

However, even here the Werth signing is only irresponsible if it negatively impacts the Nationals' ability to acquire and retain good young talent. Will it? It's impossible for anyone, including Keith Law, to say. $18M certainly is a sizeable chunk of change, but in a $90-100M payroll, where key pieces like Zimmerman, Strasburg, Harper, Ramos, and Zimmermann are locked into reasonably affordable deals for the next few years, it's hardly crippling.

If the alternative is to consign Ryan Zimmerman to wasting his prime years while the team loads up on prospects that may or may not pan out, to have Ramos and Espinosa develop in a culture of intentional mediocrity, to put the full weight of the franchise of Stephen Strasburg's surgically-repaired elbow, then a splashy free agent signing or two may just be the responsible move.

There will come a day when the Washington Nationals regret Jayson Werth's contract, but today is not that day.

This is a Job for WikiLeaks

2010-12-03T17:21:00.004-05:00

As soon as Julian Assange is done wasting his time with the military, the diplomatic corps and the financial sector, he's got serious work to do. I want to know what the hell goes on in the front offices of the Washington Nationals. I want a raft of emails from Mike Rizzo, Mark Lerner, Stan Kasten, and Uncle Teddy explaining exactly how subtracting Adam Dunn from the roster improves the team.

I want to know the thought process that leads to this statement:

The Washington Nationals wish Adam Dunn and his family the best of luck and good will in Chicago. Adam contributed much to the Nationals and to the Washington, D.C. community. He will be missed, but will remain an important figure in the early history of this franchise and will always be a part of the Nationals baseball family.

This is the perfect sentiment to mark the departure of Brad Wilkerson: great guy, commercial spokesman, important figure in the early history of the franchise. As a response to the loss of one of the top sluggers in baseball, it is sorely lacking. Mark Zuckerman does a much better job.

Mike Rizzo is under no obligation to explain himself. When he does get around to addressing the media, you can count on a rehash of the above sentiments and some old classics about the value of team defense and improving through the draft. That's where the boys from WikiLeaks come in.

Does Mike Rizzo honestly believe that improved defense at first base outweighs the decreased offensive production (and there will be a deficit) generated by Dunn's replacement? Did the Nationals offer Adam a market value 3-year contract and just balk at the 4th year, or did they low-ball him? (If it really was 3/$36M, they low-balled him.) When did Mike Rizzo decide that Carlos Pena was Albert Pujols-lite? Seeing as how Dunn ended up with the White Sox anyway, what did Kenny Williams offer at the trade deadline, and was it better than a pair of draft picks?

Make no mistake, whether you agree with the move or not, the Nationals let Adam Dunn walk away over something like one year and $14M dollars, money that probably could have been deferred. Odds are they aren't spending that money on Cliff Lee, so they better get something good for irritating the star third baseman, blowing a hole in the lineup, and pissing off an already shrinking fanbase.

Adam Dunn's Red Flag?

2010-09-30T18:26:00.004-04:00

If Adam Dunn never plays another home game in Washington, his career at Nationals Park ended on a particularly ignominious note: 0-4, 4Ks. The golden sombrero. Of course, he didn't get cheated on any of those swings, so it's not hard to believe than Adam was pressing to give the home fans a memorable show. Dunn's 2010 has been marked by his traditional display of power - 38 homers and counting - but marred by a career low walk percentage and a career high percentage of strikeouts.

Dunn is famous for being very nearly the platonic ideal of a 3 True Outcomes hitter. When he comes up to bat you can lay good money on a home run, a walk, or a strikeout. He has seven consecutive seasons of at least 38 HRs, and averages 111 BBs and 183 Ks per season for his career. He's led the league in strikeouts three times and walks once. Yet in 2010 he has just 76 walks and is one whiff away from a career high of 196 strikeouts.

Over his career Adam has a K/BB ratio of 1.65. This season he's averaging 2.57 strikeouts per walk. His previous season high was 1.95 K/BB through 66 games in his 2001 rookie season. That was also his career low for walk percentage, when 13.3% of all his plate appearances ended in a base-on-balls. In 2010 he's walking just 11.9% of the time. Dunn is also striking out in more than 30% of his plate appearances, the highest that number has been in his 10 year career. As a result Adam's on-base percentage (.359) is the lowest it's been since 2003 (.354) and 22 points below his career average (.381).

The decline can be traced to a second-half slump. Pre-All Star break Dunn was hitting 288/372/588. He's a career 254/385/547 first-half hitter, so apart from swapping some OBP for increased power and batting average, the numbers are pretty typical. In the second half everything declined. Adam typically wears down over the course of the season, but this year it was particularly noticeable. Dunn's batting average cratered to .227, his on-base percentage dropped thirty points to .342 and he lost power to the tune of a .480 slugging percentage (vs. 247/376/493 in the second half for his career.)

At this point it's important to pause and note that there is nothing wrong with a .359 on-base percentage. Dunn's OBP is the 23rd best in the National League, nothing to sneeze at for a guy who also owns the league's 5th best slugging percentage. However, as the Nationals contemplate re-signing Adam for 3 or 4 more years they should be aware of that his 2010 numbers are moving in the wrong direction. It's impossible to draw definite conclusions from a half season's worth of stats, but that doesn't make them any less concerning.

There are mitigating factors. Josh Willingham, who hit behind Dunn in the first half and was arguably the Nats second best hitter in April and May got hurt and struggled in July and August before going on the DL. Maybe his absence made pitchers less reluctant to pitch to Dunn in the second half. Maybe Adam felt more pressure to swing and try to put the ball in play with a rotating cast of Bernadina, Rodriguez and Morse hitting behind him. Or maybe we're seeing the very early signs of Dunn's decline. Hitters with "old player skills" (i.e. power and batting eye) have a nasty track record of declining hard and fast once they hit the wall.

Adam Dunn will probably never be more than a serviceable but solidly below-average defense first baseman. His value is linked inextricably to his bat. He is without question one of the premier sluggers in baseball. But this year his declining walks and increasing strikeouts have driven him closer to being an "all or nothing" hitter. That could be a one-half season blip, or it could be a sign of things to come. I wish Mike Rizzo all the best of luck in trying to figure out which explanation is closer to the truth.

(If you want to check my math, Adam Dunn's stats are drawn from Baseball Reference - a statistical gold mine.)

Pay to Win

2010-09-28T18:05:00.006-04:00

It doesn't get much easier to understand than this, courtesy of the NY Times:

Vertical axis: Wins. Horizontal axis: Payroll. Notice any correlation? Yes, there are exceptions to every rule (sweet, holy giraffe the Mets suck!) but the trend line is unmistakable. More dollars (in general) equals more wins.

Please print, clip and mail the graphic above to:

Nationals Park
Attn: Mr. Theodore N. Lerner
1500 South Capitol Street SE
Washington, DC 20003

H/T to Mr. Irrelevant.

It's The Lerners' Team Now.

2010-09-23T14:05:00.006-04:00

Sell the StanSpeak translator for scrap; Kasten is headed for the door. Boswell's oddly well-timed column has some background that will provide copious fodder for the recently diminished ranks of the "Teh Lerners are Cheep!!1!" movement. Chris Needham correctly assesses the likely fallout.

This is a gut-punch for a franchise in need of a drama-free offseason. Leaving aside the Adam Dunn contract situation the Nationals' roster looks to be as stable as it has ever been. The manager (for better or worse) and GM are both expected back, providing continuity of on-field leadership. But with Kasten, the face of the front office and head cheerleader for "The Plan", jumping ship any number of things could be thrown into flux. Rizzo was a Kasten hire, and Riggleman was Rizzo's choice. That chain of command is now broken. Who's in charge?

Of greater importance, the buffer between the owners and the public is gone. The Lerner-Kasten partnership was a Bud Selig-arranged shotgun wedding that apparently never really suited either party. Kasten was a good soldier, never publicly admitting to an inch of daylight between him and Ted Lerner on decisions. His track record provided gravitas and cover for four years poor performance and declining attendance. But Boswell suggests that Stan privately chafed at having his advice ignored. The next president will be a purely Lerner hire, and will tell us a lot about what to expect for the future of the franchise.

Have Ted and Mark Lerner internalized Kasten's lessons? Will Kasten's replacement be a baseball man given room to operate semi-autonomously, or a glorified accountant? Will the Lerners front the money to improve the major league team around the Zimmermen(n), Ian Desmond, Danny Espinosa and Wilson Ramos even if attendance plods along in the low-20,000s per game, or will they simply be happy to turn a profit on the strength of their publicly-financed stadium?

There's no one left to deflect these questions. "The Plan" has run it's course; the future is now. It's the Lerners' team. Time to watch what they do with it.

UPDATE: Someone break out the Lerner Language Lexicon. It's a "Don't let the door hit you." statement from Uncle Teddy.

Stan Kasten will always be an important part of the history of the Washington Nationals. He was vital to ownership winning its bid from Major League Baseball and his agreement to serve as the team’s chief executive for the last five years has been critical to building the Washington Nationals franchise.

Over his tenure he has positioned the Nationals to become one of the most exciting franchises in baseball and we thank him for all that he has accomplished.

We certainly respect his decision to pursue other interests at the end of the regular season, but will continue to call upon him for his vast knowledge of the game, the league and the franchise. He will remain a friend and valued partner of the team and ownership group.

Theodore N. Lerner
Managing Principal Owner

UPDATE II: In what I can only assume is a brilliant protest move, Jim Riggleman is fielding the worst Washington Nationals lineup I believe I have ever seen for today's 4:35 pm tilt with the Astros.

Espinosa – 2B
Kennedy – 1B
Desmond – SS
Morse – RF
Bernadina – LF
Ramos – C
Maxwell – CF
Gonzalez – 3B
Detwiler – P

Undoubtedly they'll win by 14.

Nats 2011 Slogan Suggestion: It Could Always Be Worse

2010-09-20T14:28:00.006-04:00

Now this is how a mature fanbase handles an extended period of failure and incompetence:

Somebody get Bob Boone on the phone. He's got work to do.

The Time Has Come

2010-09-14T00:28:00.007-04:00

I'm a fairly lazy custodian of our "Nat(m)osphere" sidebar. I tend to stick with what I know and what I like. Hey, it's our sidebar. And, as previously noted, I'm a lousy housekeeper. What that means in practice is that I'm slow to update when new bloggers join the party and even slower to delete those who may have signed off or gone off the rails.

Every so often though, something gets my attention and reminds me to clean house. In this instance, it was this piece of whiny, self-important BS from Nats320. SBF's place on our blogroll is a function of longevity, not quality. As of now, that's no longer good enough. The team is in a downward spiral, our best pitcher is laid up for the next year, our best slugger is about to take his show on the road, and Jeff is incensed by the inequitable distribution of swag?

To make matters worse, this is the stuff that gets picked up and rebroadcast to the wider web. DC baseball fans have a fairweather, frontrunning image problem that Nats320 is feeding directly into. The Nationals Enquirer has nailed the only possible response to the substance of the post, but I'm using it as an opportunity to tidy up the ol' blogroll. I'm confident that SBF neither wants nor needs my link; I doubt there's much overlap in our audiences.

In place of Nats320 I'll be adding long overdue links to Nationals Fangirls and Nats Inquisition, and removing a few of the older, comatose if not dead links. The link to Nationals Farm Authority will stay until I've completed all five stages of the grieving process. I'm still bargaining. If I'm still missing anybody, feel free to leave your info in the comments, though it may be another 6 months until I get around to doing this again.

And finally, in case you were wondering, Ryan Zimmerman can't hear you.

Batting Practice Video

2010-09-12T22:50:00.008-04:00

And now, for something completely different, Nationals players hitting baseballs with bats. Could have used some of that Friday and Saturday.

Also, MissChatter is now up with her typical incomperable photojournalism. (Warning: Do not look directly at the NTP photo.)

Nationals "Blogger Day" Take Two

2010-09-12T07:40:00.001-04:00

Saturday afternoon was the Nationals second Blogger Day of the 2010 season. This time Dave and I were set loose on Nationals Park with video camera in hand. Chad Kurz, Manager of New Media and the Nationals public relations staff provided us with access to GM Mike Rizzo, Manager Jim Riggleman and many others.

Over the next few days we'll be posting still photos, video clips and thoughts on the day's activities. For now please enjoy this photo of the view from the press box.

Additional bloggy coverage of Saturday's events can be found over at Nationals Fangirls and Nationals Inquisition.

Off-Day Movie Review: Scott Pilgrim vs. the World

2010-09-10T15:41:00.004-04:00

The NTP crew can’t watch baseball every night, even with MLB Network and three channels of ESPN. Sometimes we need a break. Some of those times we catch a movie. One of those times, the movie was Scott Pilgrim vs. the World.

Matt:

Given the rise in popularity of video games and comic books over the last thirty years, the cross-pollination of the two was inevitable. Add in Hollywood insatiable quest for the movie rights to the new hybrid and you get “Scott Pilgrim vs. the World”. We’ve seen movies based on comic books and story ideas lifted from video games before, but this is the first movie that *is* a video game. Director Edgar Wright (Hot Fuzz, Shaun of the Dead) takes Canadian cartoonist Bryan Lee O’Malley’s six-part graphic novel and creates a cultural testament to the 8-bit generation, complete with music from The Legend of Zelda, end-of-scene Boss fights, Pac-man history, and a healthy dose of PG-13 punk rock. How much you enjoy this film is directly proportional to how many hours you spent sitting in front of a TV with an Atari or an NES or a Sega Genesis. Frankly, we found it entertaining as hell.

Dave:

I’ll admit I was the one pushing to see this movie. It had me from the opening credits – which I can’t even describe without giving away the gag. As Matt said, we spent a whole lot of time in front of 8-bit consoles, and watching villains explode into coins is enormously satisfying. Several times the movie hit exactly the right, “This is what life would be like as a video game” note. You’d go on an adventure, you’d finish a challenge, and you’d have a boss battle. That’s the way it works. This motif recurs throughout the film. Either you buy in or you don’t. I bought in to it in a big way.

Matt:

The basic plot of the film centers on Scott Pilgrim, your average 22-year-old Canadian slacker drifting through life. He’s nominally dating a cute high school student, doesn’t seem to have a job and plays bass in a fledgling punk rock trio, Sex Bob-omb. (The name is a tribute to a minor baddie from the Super Mario Bros. series, and gives you a good idea of the universe this film inhabits.) Then he sets eyes on Ramona Flowers, the alterna-girl of his dreams. Literally. Of course, there’s a catch. In order to be with Ramona he has to defeat her seven evil exes, who’ve joined forces to stop Scott. Cue the boss fight music; it’s on like Donkey Kong. Say what you will about the film’s blissful ignorance of reality, but at least it’s an original premise. We haven’t seen this story told a hundred times before.

Dave:

I knew going in that it was going to be different. I haven’t read the graphic novels, but the trailers gave enough away that you could tell this was an original treatment. The plot is slightly incoherent, and occasionally even a little beside the point, but having played many video games that move you from level to level, the progression is instantly recognizable. The “cut scenes” move the story forward, but the action is the main focus. The use of comic book and video game style graphics in just the right places make this easy to accept. If you’re not willing to embrace the quasi-reality style, this movie won’t work for you.

Matt:

There is a very large leap of faith required by the viewer to accept “Scott Pilgrim”. As Dave mentioned, the opening credits set the tone but if you can’t sit back and accept what’s coming, you’re not going to enjoy the movie. Over the last 20 years advances in CGI technology have really allowed directors to experiment with how to tell a story. Graphic novel adaptations Sin City and 300 would not have been as compelling without their amazing visuals. “Scott Pilgrim” falls very much into this category. It’s a stylized, 8-bit treat for those of us who remember staying up late to play Super Mario Bros. for hours on end. With all sequels and re-treads being pumped out by Hollywood, original and well made movies should be applauded and encouraged, especially if they’re as fun and well done as “Scott Pilgrim vs. The World”.

On a completely arbitrary scale from 3 strikes (This movie is headed OUT! of theatres) to 4 balls (Run, don’t walk to your multiplex), this film earns: 3 Balls!

The Beatings Will Continue Until Morale Improves

2010-09-01T22:42:00.004-04:00

Seafood just does not agree with the Nationals. Pick your poison. Last night, a 1-0 10-inning loss capping a pitching duel. Tonight, a 16-10 slugfest featuring only slightly more hits than hit batters. Either way, the Marlins remain the team the Nats just can't find a way to beat.

Speaking of beatings, I can't understand why Nyjer Morgan seems determined to beat a path out of DC. Maybe the relationship was irrevocably damaged when the team put Morgan on the DL against his will. Maybe he can sense that he's not part of the team's long-term plans. Maybe all the losing is getting to him. We may never know for sure. What we do know is that for all the reasons FJB lays out, the time has come for Morgan to go.

Steven's also right that this reflects badly on all involved. GM Mike Rizzo brought Morgan in and shipped Lastings Milledge out to "change the tone" of the clubhouse. I sincerely doubt that this is what he had in mind. Time to get that aura reader recalibrated, Mike. I initially assumed that the incident in Philly was just an overreaction to a misunderstanding, but everything that has happened since has inclined me to believe that Nyjer Morgan probably did chuck a ball at a fan.

For his part, Manager Jim Riggleman seems to have no relationship with Nyjer, and no control over his activities on the field. Leaving aside the question of whether Riggleman hung Morgan out to dry in the press, (he did) if you can't convince your 170-lb centerfielder to stop impersonating a blocking fullback, major league baseball manager may not be your optimal gig. Even worse, the teammates who are forced to back Nyjer after these stunts come off looking like dopes.

And speaking of dopes... so long, farewell, auf wiedersehen and goodbye to Rob Dibble. Honestly, I could have forgiven the Strasburg he-man idiocy if Dibble wasn't just plain bad at his job. Being a shameless homer because you have a deep, visceral, almost disturbing connection to the team is one thing. (Hi, SBF!) Being a homer because the team signs you paycheck is just embarrassing. The late Senator Daniel Patrick Moynihan said the everyone is entitled to his own opinion, but not his own facts. Too often Dibble's version of reality was at odds with what was happening on the field (and in the strike zone.) I know there are fans who thought that Dibble's antics were the only thing keeping the Nats watchable. To them I say, you are bad fans.

To sum up: subtract Morgan and Dibble; add Wilson Ramos and Danny Espinosa? Who knows, maybe morale will improve in spite of the beatings

It Is Finished

2010-08-27T11:51:00.003-04:00

Photo by AP

And on the Eighth Day, God Created the Mute Button

2010-08-24T13:09:00.003-04:00

I make a concerted effort to ignore everything Rob Dibble says, so I'm reluctant to make an exception for his latest gaffes, but:

1. If you listen to Rob Dibble for any length of time you have no reason to be surprised when idiotic things come out of his mouth on a fairly regular basis; and

2. If, armed with that knowledge, you continue to listen to Rob Dibble you have no one to blame but yourself.

One of the beauties of baseball is that it conveys equally well on a muted television or on a radio. In this respect it is superior to many other sports. (Being a Redskins fan of the Frank Herzog-era I am compelled to say that football can also be surprisingly listenable, if done well, moving left-to-right across your radio dial.)

A soundless TV broadcast conveys 95% of the information you need to follow the action. An accomplished radio play-by-play man renders a television entirely redundant. Nats fans are cursed with substandard media in many other aspects, but Charlie Slowes and Dave Jageler are as solid a professional pairing as any in baseball.

In conclusion, if Dibble offends thee, turn him off. Good night, and good luck.

Win the Battle, Lose the War?

2010-08-21T22:22:00.002-04:00

Just keep repeating "It was only precautionary. It was only precautionary."

Ummm... it was only precautionary, right? Fellas?

Is this thing on...?

Hawpe to It

2010-08-18T22:40:00.003-04:00

The Colorado Rockies are on the verge of releasing OF Brad Hawpe. Coincidentally, the Nationals are in the market for an outfielder to replace Josh Willingham as he makes his long overdue trip to the DL. Hawpe should be that replacement.

There's no question that there will be a reshuffling of the Nats outfield. All three outfield spots are legitimately up for grabs over the season's final month and a half. There are currently 5 players in the mix for those 3 spots: Nyjer Morgan, Roger Bernadina, Michael Morse, Willie Harris, and Justin Maxwell. (OF Kevin Mench is also on the big league bench, but he shouldn't be, and he certainly isn't a serious contender for regular playing time.)

As much as we love Willie Harris's webgems and improbable home runs he, like Mench, is not a part of this team's future. Leaving aside Jim Riggleman's inexplicable love for using Willie as the first pinch hitter off the bench he should not be getting anything more than spot starts and defensive replacement innings at this point.

For better or worse Nyjer Morgan is likely to return to his regular centerfield duties. There is some speculation that Roger Bernadina could move to center and push Nyjer to left, but that seems pointless, exchanging one below average corner outfield bat for another. On the plus side, Nyjer was hitting 308/361/354 in 18 second half games before his injury. That leaves Bernadina, Michael Morse and Justin Maxwell to split up at-bats at the corners. If you think that makes for an uninspiring choice, you'd be correct.

Roger Bernadina's been slowly playing himself out of the starting lineup all season. A 268/325/411 line might play in center field, but at the corners it's an offensive drag. It's not at all clear from his major or minor league stats that Roger has the glove to stick in center. He'll also be 27 next season, pretty well past the prospect stage. It may be time to admit that he is what he is, a very good 4th OF in the making.

Michael "Mike" Morse made a name for himself mashing left-handed pitching. A 306/342/556 split against lefties has earned him an everyday audition. A 257/304/419 line against righties is threatening to send him back to the bench. Morse deserves the chance to play out the season, but he's a below average outfielder, so if he's not getting it done with the lumber, he's not getting it done.

Like Morse, Justin Maxwell hits lefty pitching pretty well. But the guy simply cannot hit right handers. Not in the majors, not in the minors, not in a train, not on a plane. Not here nor there, he cannot hit them anywhere. As you might imagine, that limits his value. Justin gets a lot of slack because he's a local guy, and by all accounts a great guy, but his time is undeniably running out.

All of which brings us to Mr. Hawpe. He's having a down year, hitting just 252/340/430 and playing typically bad defense in right field. Note that Hawpe's slump constitutes an improvement over every healthy OF on the Nationals' 25-man roster. Check out this side-by-side career batting line comparison.

Hawpe: 280/374/492 (274/369/470 away from Coors Field)
Willingham: 265/367/475

Hard as it may be to believe, The Hammer probably gets a slight edge on defense, just because Hawpe is almost Adam Dunn bad in the outfield. That's the reason the Rockies put him on the Adam Dunn plan, and had him start taking some innings at first base. We're not necessarily talking about a long-term solution here. Hawpe is a clear upgrade over the current crop of corner outfielders, and might provide some insurance if Josh Willingham's knee surgery doesn't go as well as hoped.

Hawpe also projects as a Type-A free agent, and while offering him arbitration would be risky, the Nats might be one of the few teams in a position to take that risk and reap the draft picks should he decline. Of course, with the Rockies paying his salary, Hawpe would probably be an attractive left-handed bench bat for a number of contending teams. None could offer him the chance to play every day though, while the Nationals just happen to have an opening in the outfield.

The post-Harper breather is over. Hawpe to it, Mr. Rizzo

Beyond Bryce

2010-08-14T10:10:00.003-04:00

UPDATE: Anyone care to translate this sentence into English for me?

Mike Rizzo: "I seem confident that we should sign the guys that we want to sign out of the draft."

At this rate we're going to need a Rosetta Stone to decipher all the Stan and Rizzo-speak coming out of Nationals Park in the next 48 hours. However, two questions come immediately to mind:

1. Doesn't telling people you seem confident suggest that you are not confident?

2. Who are the guys that they drafted that they don't want to sign?

*****

It's deja vu all over again. With less than 60 hours to go, the Nationals are still on the clock to sign the number 1 overall pick in the June amateur draft. And just like last year, despite having more than two months to negotiate, the deal won't get done until T-minus 30 seconds before the deadline. That's the nature of the process, and unlike Stan Kasten, I'm disinclined to get all angsty about it.

I'm guessing Bryce Harper ends up as the highest paid amateur position player in draft history, raking in a few dollars more than Mark Teixeira got just on principle and to salve Scott Boras's ego. Harper will sign because between a deep 2011 draft class, a new collective bargaining agreement that could completely revamp the draft, and the ever-present risk of injury if he returns to play junior college ball, there's too much risk in waiting another year. But signing Harper won't be enough to consider the Nationals' 2010 draft a success.

Beyond Harper are three pitchers. San Diego State left-hander Sammy Solis (2nd round pick) and high schoolers A.J. Cole (4th round) and Robbie Ray (12th round). These three are the real keys to victory. Harper + Solis = a good draft. Harper, Solis and Cole; a great draft. All four? It's hard to call that anything other than the best draft of 2010.

Three years ago the Nationals were in a similar situation. August 2007 saw the Nats come to terms with three talented left-handed pitchers. First rounders Ross Detwiler and Josh Smoker and 6th rounder Jack McGeary. Here's what we wrote at the time:

Pitchers in particular are a tricky bunch. If 3 years we'll probably be lucky if one of our top 3 lefties profiles as a front-of-the-rotation starter. Maybe Detwiler will never be better than a lefty set-up guy. Maybe Smoker's arm will fall off. Maybe two years at Stanford will kindle an unrealized passion for Buddhism and McGeary will move to Tibet and moonlight as a sherpa with a 92 MPH fastball. It's much, much too soon to say. But that's why you need so many talented youngsters, and why you need to take them whenever you find them.

Still sounds about right. And the same is true of Solis, Cole and Ray. That's why the Nats need to do what it takes to bring them into the fold on Monday night. Solis is probably the surest bet to sign. We also know that Ray was in town for a meeting with the coaches and front office. If the team is serious about continuing to rebuild the farm system, none of these guys will be packing for college on Tuesday morning.

Return of the Stras

2010-08-09T17:52:00.003-04:00

Per Nats' Director of Baseball Media Relations Mike Gazda:

[T]here are plenty of good seats available for Stephen Strasburg's start tomorrow vs. FLA... [T]here are a lot of fans who have been shutout from seeing Strasburg pitch (because of sellouts), but they have a chance to get tix tomorrow since he is coming off the DL and word has been slow to spread.

If they're pushing this hard, they're probably 99.44% sure that Stephen won't be scratched in warm-ups in favor of Miguel Batista this time. Mister Irrelevant, who's also hawking tickets to the game, notes that Strasmas ticket prices are slowly returning to normal. So this would be a good time to see the phenom in action. Consider the word spread.

In other news...

These Things Have a Way of Working Themselves Out: Detwiler to the DL, Stammen to the 'pen, and all of a sudden the Nats' glut of starting pitching has thinned considerably. Note that thinned is not a synonym for improved.

Five Fighting For Future: The Zucker Man has his list of 5 Nats to watch in the season's waning months. For my money, the only truly interesting name of the list is Michael Morse, who has about 8 weeks to play himself out of a career as a platoon outfielder/bench bat. I'm working on a little piece for later this week about the great Morse/Bernadina/Maxwell cage match shaping up in August and September.

The Spirit is Willing, But the Ham is Weak: Speaking of the outfield, Josh Willingham's 2nd half slump (and it's potential impact on the lineup) has become a topic of muted concern. In truth though, the Hammer's "slump" from his hot start dates to the beginning of June, and shows no sign of letting up. If Adam Dunn is playing himself into a multi-year contract, Josh could be playing himself out of one, and putting LF back in play for the Nats in 2011 and beyond. Hmmm... do we know any free agent left fielders?

Dear National Media, Please Go Away: There was a time when I would have welcomed any mention made of the Nats from beyond the boundaries of the DMV. But we have Strasburg now, so I'm over the desperate need for attention phase. Now I'm firmly with Harper in the "stop plugging my team into your generic story generator" camp. Mike Rizzo turns Matt Capps into Wilson Ramos and change and unloads the Guz, but "loses" the trade deadline because he didn't jettison Adam Dunn for Daniel Hudson and a handful of magic beans? Spare me. Exactly who are all these people that have it on good authority that the Nats won't offer Dunn arbitration and "risk" paying him $15-16M next season? Go bother some other mid-market team. Isn't there a Prince Fielder to the Red Sox non-rumor you people should be busy inflating?

Maya Signs: World Series in 2012?

2010-08-01T18:27:00.005-04:00

It's official. 28-year-old Cuban ace Yunesky Maya is the first major international signing of the Mike Rizzo era. The agreement, first reported in mid-July, was completed this weekend. Maya's major league contract will be worth between $6-8M over the next four years, and he could pitch for the Nationals before the season is out.

Maya doesn't have the raw talent of his countryman Aroldis Chapman, but he is by all accounts a polished veteran with a low-90s fastball and developed secondary pitches. With a career 2.51 ERA in Cuba (and a 1.73 ERA in the World Baseball Classic) there's reason to think that Maya could be a middle-of-the-rotation MLB starter right away. Given the parade of forgettables that have occupied that spot for the Nationals over the last five seasons, this signing is cause for legitimate optimism.

There's a great deal of assumption, wishful thinking, and finger-crossing that goes into projecting any roster into the future, but if Maya and Jordan Zimmermann have successful cups of coffee to close out 2010, and Stephen Strasburg's $15M shoulder gets a clean bill of health, the three of them could headline a formidable 2011 rotation. Mike Rizzo and Jim Riggleman would have the luxury of choosing between established veterans Jason Marquis and Livan Hernandez, comeback players like Chien-Ming Wang, John Lannan and Scott Olsen, or a talented youngster like Ross Detwiler to round out the starting five.

Depth would then come from some combination of those guys and AAAA veterans like Craig Stammen, Luis Atilano, J.D. Martin and Matt Chico. All of the aforementioned have had at least some measure of big league success and could presumably be counted on to fill in for a start or two without melting down in the spotlight.

Of course, an injury to one or more of the potential "Big 3" would be a serious setback (and with Zimmermann only a year removed from Tommy John surgery, not all that unlikely.) Any major league team needs at least seven starting pitchers to get through a 162-game season. But you also need luck to have the replacements fill in for your 4 and 5 guys, not your ace and No. 2. Still, if Strasburg, Zimmermann and Maya can put together 30 starts each in 2011, the Washington Nationals could be well on their way to contention and beyond.

The Guzman Error Era

2010-07-30T22:11:00.012-04:00

For a certain segment of the Washington Nationals' fan base Cristian Guzman will never be anything more than Jim Bowden's original sin. Bowden forfeited a 3rd round draft pick to the Twins in his haste to sign the free agent All-Star shortstop to a 4 yr/$16M dollar deal in November 2004.

No one who was paying attention to the Nats in 2005 can forget the initial return on that investment. Guzman's inaugural season in DC was his worst since his rookie campaign and one of the worst in baseball. He posted a terrible .219/.260/.314 line (53 OPS+), but still appeared in all but 20 of the team's games and amassed nearly 500 plate appearances. (He did hit .325/.367/.470 in September though!)

Of course, we only found out in the offseason that Cristian had been playing almost all of 2005 with a bad shoulder. Surgery and rehab cost him all of 2006, aka Year 2 of his much derided 4-year contract. In Guz's absence Royce Clayton and Felipe Lopez split time forgettably at shortstop.

2007 brought a renewed Guzman with bionic shoulder and Lasik eyes. The surgical enhancements worked to the tune of a 328/380/466 line in 46 games to start the season. Then disaster struck, courtesy of Josh Barfield's stupid over-sized head. Another season down the drain, but Guzie was nothing if not a master of timing.

In the walk year of his initial 4-year deal with the Nationals, Cristian built on his 2007 sample to post the second best full offensive season of his career. His .316/.345/.440 line in over 600 plate appearances earned him a return trip to the All-Star game. More important, Guzman was able to parlay a solid season and a quarter into a 2-year, $16M contract extension, courtesy of Jim Bowden. (See if you can spot the recurring theme here.) It's hard to believe now, but this was basically a market-value deal at the time. Of course. the market tanked about three months later, but I digress.

2009 was a typical Cristian Guzman season. Empty .284 batting average, few walks, little power. His range at shortstop, always suspect, certainly didn't improve after his 31st birthday. Still, he managed to make the All-Star ballot once again, and even threw a brief thrill into the fan base when he was rumored to be shipping up to Boston.

As 2010 dawned, big changes were in store for Cristian. No longer the default option at shortstop, he was expected to be an $8M utility infielder, backing up rookie SS Ian Desmond and free agent 2B Adam Kennedy. Cristian's bat had other ideas. A hot month of May (.381/.411/.452) garnered him 19 starts, and most-favored status with manager Jim Riggleman. He was in the lineup almost every day from then on, delivering a typically Guzmanic .282/.327/.361 on the eve of his trade to Texas.

Almost all of Cristian Guzman's problems in DC stemmed from the fact that Jim Bowden paid him to be something he had never been and never would be. (The remainder stemmed from injuries.) Was Guzman worth what he was paid? No, but that hardly makes him unique, and it's not even really his fault. For five and a half seasons Cristian Guzman took the field for the Washington Nationals every day that he was physically able. He played through injuries, three managers, two GMs, and a revolving cast of mediocre-or-worse teammates. (Where have you gone, Bernie Castro?) Through it all he smiled, stretched for those grounders just past his glove, and waggled his fingers after every slappy single.

He may have been a symbol of everything that was wrong with the current incarnation of DC baseball, but he wasn't part of the problem. Farewell and good luck Cristian. Where ever the road takes you, you'll always have a home here in Washington, DC.

NOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO!!!!

2010-07-30T16:35:00.002-04:00

Well, okay, as long as it's Texas. Twins-Nats-Rangers. In one sense Cristian Guzman has spent his entire career playing baseball for Washington. You have to admire the symmetry.

Farewell to GUZMANIA!, the longest tenured player in Washington Nationals history, and the only member of the 2005 club to have remained in DC for the full five and a half seasons.

Over an even 550 games with the Nationals, Cristian put up a .282/.317/.389 line, good for an 87 OPS+. Coincidentally, that's better than his career line, so the Nats really did get Guzman's best years, no matter how much Jim Bowden over paid for them.

Later this evening I'm planning a full retrospective and appreciation of the Guzman Era, coupled with some drinking. So for one day at least, kindly keep your oh-so-clever snark to yourself.

Shows What I Know

2010-07-29T22:24:00.003-04:00

"[W]e ain't getting Wilson Ramos for Capps..." - July 28, 2010

Yeah, about that... I'm a dumbass. The formal announcement is still pending, but Woo Hoo!

Here's a little background on Wilson Ramos, courtesy of Baseball America. Aaron Gleeman, who knows Twins baseball just about as well as anyone, has this take on Ramos:

Wilson Ramos has been totally overmatched by Triple-A pitching, posting a hideous 41-to-8 strikeout-to-walk ratio while hitting just .208/.244/.319 in 52 games. Ramos showed reasonable enough plate discipline in the low minors, but since advancing to Double-A last year he has 14 walks and 64 strikeouts in 106 games. He's making contact at a palatable rate, but the total lack of patience is disturbing along with a .427 career slugging percentage.

Ramos remains a very solid prospect largely due to projecting as a good defensive catcher, but it was always wishful thinking to assume he was even close to an MLB-ready impact bat and that notion now looks silly. With that said, he's still just 22 years old and has fewer than 450 plate appearances above Single-A, so there's no need to sour on Ramos too much.

Wilson Ramos is far from a sure thing, but he's a legitimate catching prospect and easily enters the Nationals' Top 10 prospects list. Considering that Ramos was rumored to be part of the Twins' offer to the Mariners for Cliff Lee, getting him for a reliever like Capps is a coup.

The Nats' bullpen will have to be reshuffled, but that's an insignificant price to pay. Whether this is the dawn of the Drew Storen Era or the beginning of two and a half months of closer-by-committee, you make this trade 100 times out of 100. Nicely done, Mr. Rizzo.

Strasburgeddon and Other Catchy Headlines

2010-07-28T07:30:00.000-04:00

I'm not a doctor, and I don't play one on TV, but it seems to me that a precautionary MRI is not something a pitcher gets because he has "trouble getting loose in the bullpen". It might, however, be the kind of thing a pitcher gets when he "may be favoring his four-seam fastball over his two-seamer." "There's no pain" should be words of comfort, except that a brief history of DC pitchers who have felt no pain includes John Patterson, Brian Lawrence, Chad Cordero, Matt Chico, Jordan Zimmermann, Scott Olsen and Jason Marquis. In other words, it was fun while it lasted, Nats fan.

Capps & Trade

As the trade deadline draws nearer the Nationals are the subject of an unusual amount of speculation. Beyond the usual suspects (Adam Dunn and Josh Willingham) opposing teams are rumored to have varying levels of interest in Cristian Guzman, Adam Kennedy, Willie Harris and Matt Capps. Nationals Journal and Nationals Review both took in-depth looks at the pros and cons of trading the Nats' closer. Here's the bottom line: closers are made, not born. And even good relief pitchers are notoriously volatile commodities. DC fans need look no farther than Chad Cordero, Joel Hanrahan and Mike MacDougal to find recent examples of the boom-and-bust closer phenomenon.

Even without Capps the Nats have at least three relievers who are arguably capable of holding a lead in the 9th inning. Tyler Clippard has been the consummate set-up man. You might not want to bring him in with men on, but if you need three outs and the bases are empty there's no reason to think he can't do the job. Joel Peralta saved 2o games for AAA Syracuse this season and has pitched well since his promotion, with basically the same arsenal that Capps employs. Then there's Drew Storen, consensus "closer of the future". He's done everything asked of him so far, so unless he's on an inning count, why not see if he can handle the 9th inning?

If Mike Rizzo can trade Matt Capps for anything of value he should do it now and not think twice. That said, we ain't getting Wilson Ramos for Capps or Matt Garza for Adam Dunn. Who let Jim Bowden back in here?

Dunn Roaming

I have no problem with Adam Dunn's impromptu visit to the Miller Park broadcast booth on Saturday night. I do have a problem with him not clearing it by Jim Riggleman or bench coach John McLaren. The talking to he got was justified. However well-intentioned, Adam's decision to duck out of the clubhouse without telling anyone projects a devil-may-care indifference that the worst defensive team in baseball should probably try to avoid. On the plus side, at least he wasn't taking a nap.

Irreplaceable: The Perpetual Rebuild

2010-07-18T00:36:00.000-04:00

The Nationals aren't going to compete for anything in 2010. After outscoring the Marlins and still dropping the series, there's enough accumulated evidence to assess this team's talent level. The offense is mediocre and erratic, the bullpen is a relative strength and the starting pitching not named Strasburg, while capable of ocassional competence, is a definite weakness.

In the midst of all this Adam Dunn and Josh Willingham are having outstanding seasons. Dunn, hitting 288/373/579 with an NL-leading 22 homers, is in the last months of his two-year contract and would be an asset to any team looking for a 1B/DH bat in the second half. Willingham, batting 276/403/491 is perhaps even more attractive because he's under team control for all of 2011 and can play a respectable left field. On one level it makes sense to say that if the Nats can't score runs even with these guys, they should ship them out for prospects and reset the clock on that "first great Nationals team".

The Nationals Review does a nice job of breaking down the endlessly frustrating offense. Basically, if you think the Nats are struggling now, just wait 'til you see what they look like with the heart of the order gutted. But there's a larger issue at work here. Ever since fans became attuned to the dynamics of player development and teams with financial limitations started trumpeting the "build from within" approach, there has been a school of thought that says there's no use in being anywhere on the spectrum other than "rebuilding" or "contending". If you aren't in it to win it at the major league level you should be focused on turning veterans into young, cost-controlled prospects who will ideally form the nucleus of your next (or first) contending club.

In the abstract that approach makes sense. The devil, as always, is in the details. First, it's important to correctly evaluate your odds. The 2010 Nats are not contending, but the 2011 team could, if your rose-colored glasses are tinted just right. Needless to say, subtracting Dunn and/or Willingham would hobble the big club in the short-term, regardless of the return. Meanwhile, Ryan Zimmerman's contract is ticking along toward free agency and 3 more years doesn't seem like that much time for a club that has already squandered 5 post-relocation seasons.

Second, you have to trust your GM to make not just a deal, but the right deal. From a fan's perspective, this part is all but unknowable. Blood was demanded when the Nats failed to either move or resign Alfonso Soriano at the trade deadline in 2006. Fonzie's compensatory draft picks became Jordan Zimmermann (and Josh Smoker), but it's impossible to tell from the outside if that constitutes a better return than any of the potential trades that were declined.

Finally, there's the lure of the perpetual rebuild. Even the best teams need to get lucky to make the playoffs. They need to stay healthy, not have any veterans fall off a cliff and get unexpected contributions from one or two unheralded quarters. Teams without the Phillies' payroll or the Rays' farm system have even less margin for error. One or two bad breaks and a promising spring becomes a lost season pretty quickly. At which point you're supposed to jettison everyone who might (A) get more expensive, (B) be on the downside of his career, or (C) return a premium prospect. Sure this season it's Dunn and Willingham, but you don't have to look too far into the future to see a time when the veteran in his prime who's wasting time with the perpertually scuffling Nats is named Zimmerman, or even Strasburg.

At some point you have to build, not just rebuild. Without straining my imagination I can see a 2011 Nationals club with a rotation headed by Strasburg and Zimmermann, with 3 of Wang, Detwiler, Olsen, Marquis, Lannan and free-agent-to-be-named rounding out the back. Behind them a bullpen anchored by Burnett, Clippard, Storen and Capps. Zimmerman, Dunn and Willingham in the heart of the order, supplemented by Ian Desmond and a Roger Bernadina/Mike Morse platoon, with Pudge Rodriguez and Jesus Flores splitting the catching duties. (Is this is a little fanciful? Yes, but no more so than projecting Derek Norris, Chris Marrero and Danny Espinosa to be offensive stalwarts in two years.)

Is the team outlined above good enough to compete for a World Series? Maybe, maybe not. One thing's for sure, if Dunn or Willingham is dealt at the deadline it will be well past 2011 before we see another Nats team with equivalent talent.

Offensive

2010-06-20T00:00:00.000-04:00

"I WANT to believe the problem is with the pitching, not the hitting. But by league rank, it's the opposite." - Chris Needham, Capitol Punishment, 6/15/10

The Washington Nationals offense is like a good-for-nothing ex-spouse, or a cheap bra. It offers no support. The boys have scored 0, 1, 3, 3 and 4 runs in the last five games (all loses), and averaged just 3.4 runs/game over the last ten. The middle of the lineup - Zimmerman, Dunn, Willingham - has been great, All-Star caliber. Ivan Rodriguez and Roger Bernadina have been fine complementary pieces. The rest of the lineup? Ah, therein lies the problem.

Well, sort of. The truth is, the Nats are underperforming even their own modest projections. Baseball Musings' Lineup Analysis tool is a blunt instrument, but it credits the Nats standard lineup (Morgan, Guzman, Zimmerman, etc...) with creating 4.79 runs/game. FJB suggests batting Zimmerman second, and that probably wouldn't hurt, but fiddling with the lineup is rearranging deck chairs. The difference between the Nats best and worst possible lineup is measured in fractions of runs per game.

Jim Riggleman's lineup may not be helping, but it isn't the main problem. The Nats are carrying four well below average hitters into every game, every day. Now, being a National League team, they're more or less stuck with a pitcher. But that still leaves the shortstop, second baseman and center fielder not pulling their weight. (Bernadina may be a below-average hitter for a right fielder, but he's above average overall.)

If you're so inclined you can write Ian Desmond's (.299 OBP, .400 SLG) bat off as the price of doing business with his spectacular glove. The same cannot be said of Cristian Guzman or, in 2010 at least, of Nyjer Morgan. Maybe the Nationals can carry one defense-first starter, but not three, particularly when two aren't really all that defensively gifted these days.

Now He's a National

2010-06-19T00:00:00.002-04:00

Welcome to Washington, Stephen. Is it time to start the "Countdown to Free Agency"?

Hey Now, You're An All Star... Voter

2010-06-18T17:18:00.006-04:00

Nationals fans can be forgiven for thinking that MLB All-Stars are token players chosen to round out the roster and ensure that every team has representation. That's the kind of mindset that comes from having luminaries like Dmitri Young (2007) and Cristian Guzman (2008) represent Washington, DC in the mid-summer classic. Last year, Ryan Zimmerman (winner of the Gold Glove and Silver Slugger, perhaps you've heard of him?) only made it on as a reserve. So yeah, voting for the MLB All-Star Game is not especially merit-based.

In any other town this might be a problem, but this is Washington, DC. No city in the world boasts more collective knowledge about voter manipulation, log-rolling and bloc voting. The 2010 Nationals have at least two guys who are legitimately worthy of starting for the National League All-Star team, but there's just no way Zimmerman and Josh Willingham both make the cut. It's time to unite behind Ryan and start cutting some deals. If you need some number to back that up, they're all here.

Here's the current breakdown of NL All-Star candidates, by position. The first thing you'll notice is that the RZA isn't even in the Top 5 at third base. This is frankly embarrassing and an indictment of Nationals fans. So before you finishing reading this post, before you do anything else:

GO VOTE. Vote 25 times. Don't worry, it's kosher. The All-Star Game is a Chicago-style election campaign. Vote early, vote often vote Nats.

Once that's done it should put Ryan in the Top 5. If we can't find 23,000 people in DC who think that Zimmerman is the best third baseman in the National League, it's time to pack up the tent and go home. After that it's time to start horse-trading.

First, the low-hanging fruit; fans of American League teams. They get 25 votes for the NL All-Stars just like you get 25 votes for the AL team. Promise them anything. The Yankees fan on your softball team wants to see an all-New Yawk lineup? In exchange for 25 votes for Zimm you'll hold your nose and pull the lever for Posada over Mauer. The Angels fan who's trying to mount a Kendry Morales sympathy vote? Hey, nobody backs lost causes like a Nats fan. Don't be greedy. It's tempting to try to score some votes for Willingham, Adam Dunn, maybe even Pudge Rodriguez, but stay focused. Also, trust but verify. You're going to want to see those votes.

The next step is trickier. We're talking vote-swapping with our National League rivals. The key here is swapping votes wisely. For example, I love Ian Desmond, but he's no All-Star. So here's an open offer to all the Marlins fans out there. You vote Zimmerman, I vote Hanley Ramirez and keep Jimmy Rollins out of the top spot. It's a win-win. Likewise, Dodgers fans, I can totally get behind Andre Ethier, especially if it keeps Jayson Werth out of the top three.

I think you see how the game is played. Now go forth and barter. Zimmerman 2010!

Remember to do your part: VOTE NOW.

POWer Pitching

2010-06-15T18:30:00.001-04:00

12.1 innings, 3 earned runs, 5 walks, 22 strikeouts, 2 wins. Apparently, those numbers get you noticed. National League Player of the Week. Sports Illustrated cover boy. Topic of discussion from FanHouse to San Fran.

Oh sure, now folks want to have an opinion about the Nationals. Where were you when that batting tee attacked Junior Spivey?!

The Nationals haven't had a true power pitcher since John Patterson struck out 185 in 198 innings in 2005. (He also struck out 42 in 40.2 innings of work in an injury-shortened 2006, walking just 10. John Patterson was good. Snakebit, but good.) Not coincidentally, that's also the last season the Nats posted a non-losing record.

What Strasburg does, apart from collect buckets of Ks and make major league hitters look silly with his curveball, is give the entire pitching staff a different look. For four years hitters pretty well knew what they were getting in a 3-game series vs Washington. Three pitchers throwing between 88 and 91 and hoping to keep to ball on the ground and in the park. Sure there were minor differences between guys, maybe one was a lefty, but there was nothing to make opposing batters re-tool their entire approach to hitting. Now there is.

Hall of Fame pitcher Warren Spahn said, "Hitting is timing. Pitching is upsetting timing." In a three game set, the other team might see Strasburg's 100 MPH fastball one night, Lannan's 88 MPH slider at the knees the next, and Livan's 62 MPH Bugs Bunny curve the next afternoon. That has to mess with your timing, doesn't it?

Of course it wouldn't be DC if fans didn't look for the dark cloud in every silver lining. Post columnist Thomas Boswell, who really wanted Dustin Ackley anyway, is worried that too many strikeouts will put an unnecessary strain on Strasburg's arm. Or, in the alternative:

This Time Was Different

2010-06-09T09:57:00.007-04:00

Years ago when I visited Yankee Stadium for the first time, I quickly realized that there was something different about that crowd. We exited the train onto the street and there was a hum and excitement that you could actually feel. It brought to mind the tension in the air just before a massive thunderstorm rolls in. At the time I chalked it up to just being at Yankee Stadium but after Steven Strasburg's debut last night I know different.

As I was walking to Rosslyn to meet Dave last night I had complete strangers walk up to me and ask if I was going to the game. People were plainly envious that I was heading to the ballpark. Then we got to the stadium and I started to feel that hum again. It wasn't quite as strong as that Yankee Stadium feeling but it was there. Then the capacity crowd gave Strasburg a standing ovation when he walked in from the bullpen and the feeling exploded like thunder. That was when it dawned on me why this was different. This game mattered.

Last night wasn't about opening a new ballpark, it wasn't about a family taking in the national pastime, and it wasn't about the guys going out for the night. Last night was about baseball. The product on the field was what mattered.

Something happened right off the bat that made it feel like something special could happen. The crowd chuckled when "Jaared" the saxophone player was introduced to play the national anthem but once he started we all stood up a little straighter. Nobody expected the soulful instrumental that followed. He got two different spontaneous cheers during his solo and that's saying something.

Then it was time to get underway. McCutcheon's liner to short made us all hold our breath but then we settled in to witness greatness. 7 strong innings, 94 pitches and 14 strikeouts. The homerun Strasburg gave up to Delwyn Young stung a little bit but in hindsight it served as a reminder that after all he is just a rookie.

And it wasn't just Strasburg that dazzled last night, Ryan Zimmerman, Adam Dunn, and Josh Willingham provided their own fireworks. This was Strasburg's night but it was a team win. It was a win on a night when, for at least one game, the team had something concrete to play for. It mattered to the 40,000 plus fans, it mattered to the people watching at home, and it mattered to the Nationals. This time it was different.

What If...

2010-06-08T11:49:00.002-04:00

What if Stephen Strasburg doesn't take the mound, strike out the side in order on 9 pitches and ascend directly to heaven? What if he gives up a handful of hits, or (Strasburg forbid) a handful of runs in only six innings of work before sitting down for the night? What if suspect defense or spotty relief work cost him a Strasmas Day victory?

What if the stadium runs out of food and drink in the 2nd inning? You think I'm kidding, but Opening Day was a logistical nightmare, and the June 4th pre-Strasmas crowd pretty much emptied the concession stands out by the fifth inning.

What if the view of the field is obscured by people constantly coming and going from their seats while the ushers stand idly by? What if standing room only fights break out as people jockey for position to watch the first pitch?

I guess what I'm saying is, the eyes of the baseball world are on Nationals Park tonight, and if things don't go smoothly it could easily cast a long shadow over what should be one of the brightest days in DC baseball history.

I'm sure Mark Lerner and Stan Kasten are aware of the stakes, but given their history I'm much less confident that they've looked beyond the rosy glow of ticket sales. The challenges that come with accomodating what figures to be the largest crowd in Nationals Park history, many of whom may be experiencing Nationals baseball for the first time, are enormous. I believe Stephen Strasburg is up to the task. I can only hope the same is true for the rest of the organization.

Kasten: Harper in DC by 2013

2010-06-07T20:54:00.007-04:00

Stan speaks, sans translator

On Saturday Nationals' President Stan Kasten spoke to fans (and 20-odd bloggers) before the Nats-Reds game. He covered a range of topics from the Philly Phan Invasion to Strasburg-mania. He also touched briefly on Bryce Harper.

Speaking in the abstract, because this was 24 hours before Mike Rizzo confirmed what everyone has known for months, Stan noted that Harper's path to the majors would be greatly accelerated by moving out from behind the plate. Based on his "conversations with baseball men" Kasten observed that a young catcher could take 4 or 5 years to develop.

On the other hand, an outfielder with Harper's bat and physical tools could conceivably be major league-ready in two years. So there you have it. The plan all along was to draft Harper, move him to right field and have him playing behind Strasburg and Zimmerman by 2013. Dave Cameron has some thoughts on the pros and cons of this approach here.

Stan also repeatedly mentioned that "signing quickly" would be key to Bryce Harper's development. Way to play it cool, Stan.

Matt & Nate: Coming Out of the Booth

2010-06-05T19:08:00.018-04:00

That's right, we're sellouts. The Nats reeled us in with a "Blogger Day" and cushy seats in the mile-high press box. Also, Q&As with Drew Storen, Josh Willingham, Jim Riggleman and Stan Kasten. We'll chime in if anything interesting happens here, otherwise expect a write-up of thoughts later tonight.

8:20 pm: Mike Leake is clearly a better pitcher than Stephen Strasburg.

8:30: I feel that Luis Atilano learned the wrong lesson re: pitch counts from Livan's start last night. 80 pitches through 5 innings is not a goal.

8:45: Clippard, Storen and Capps pitched last night. Slaten, Walker, Burnett tonight? Do not want.

8:50: I'm sure it would be tremendously difficult, but can someone please teach Adam Dunn to push a bunt down the 3rd base line?

8:55: Joey Votto needs more stick'um.

9:05: Apparently the goal for the evening was to get Atilano's ERA under 4.25. Mission accomplished.

9:10: What is it about Willie Harris's slash line that makes him the automatic first pinch hitter off the bench?

9:20: If you're not part of the solution, you're Tyler Walker.

9:24: It's the Joe West show, folks.

9:28: Cheer up, Wil. Some days you're the pigeon, some years you're the statue.

9:34: Why Miguel Batista? Why not?

9:45: Zimmerman walking - Good. Dunn hitting w/ men on base? Bad. (See above re: bunting down the 3rd base line.)

9:54: No warning to Batista? Joe West is a jackass.

10:02: I have absolute confidence in the Nats' ability to come back from this. ::weeps::

A Trip Down Memory Lane

2010-06-02T12:05:00.002-04:00

In preparation for the second coming, Barry Svrluga has a great piece about the 2005 team that rattled off a ten game win streak and eventually led the NL East at the All-Star break.

Ahhhh, memories.

Hook, Line, Sinker

2010-05-26T22:59:00.003-04:00

What has six thumbs and three tickets to the June 4th game against the Reds? These guys!

I don't blame the Nats. Like Needham says, they bent over backwards not to say anything about when Jeezus will be incarnating in DC. (Contrarywise, seems like they could have said something about when he wouldn't be appearing.) Nor do I particularly blame Zuckerman, Goessling, et al. though this piece is a masterwork of backtracking. Educated guesswork is the lifeblood of journalism, but sometimes you're going to be wrong. In sportswriting this will get you mercilessly mocked on the interweb. In politics it will get you an Op-Ed column at the Washington Post.

One of the criticisms leveled at the Nats for manipulating Stephen Strasburg's service clock was that while they were saving money on his future contracts they were losing revenue in 2010 by not maximizing his major league starts. Clearly Stan Kasten devised a way around that problem. He's managed a near sellout of an otherwise unremarkable Friday night game in early June. Have cake? Check. Eat cake? Check.

Again, I don't blame the Nats. It was in their interest not to quash the June 4th speculation. We ought to understand by now that Stan, Mark and Uncle Teddy consider tickets sold the only appropriate barometer of success. Butts in the seats, or who those butts happen to be rooting for, is a secondary concern. I have no doubt that June 8th, or any other date will sell out just as quickly once Strasburg's promotion is confirmed. Hell, I might very well roll the dice again myself.

File Under Better Late Than Never

2010-05-16T00:10:00.003-04:00

To make room for the return of Mike Morse the Nats are designating 5th OF/pinch runner (and inexplicable occasional starting right fielder) Willy Taveras for assignment. Taveras is such a typical Jim Bowden-type player that I'm surprised Rizzo didn't get more grief for bringing him aboard. His defense has been solid, but he's been a black hole offensively (38 OPS+) and even with his vaunted speed is just 1-3 in stolen base attempts. Taveras's best performance came in an April 10th win over the Mets, where he went 2-4 with 4 RBI.

I'd say this move has been a long time coming, but in truth, until Morse was healthy again there was no one in Syracuse that would have represented a serious upgrade. Justin Maxwell has put up better numbers, but the organization still hopes that he's more than just a reserve or platoon outfielder and is giving him one last shot to prove he deserves a larger role. It will be interesting to see what sort of time share Jim Riggleman works out for Harris, Bernadina and Morse in right. Morse was originally slated to take the short end of a lefty/righty platoon with Super Willie. That would consign Bernadina to the 5th OF/pinch runner role Willy T. just vacated.

Morse has the potential to be the Nats most offensively potent right fielder (note the damning with faint praise.) Defensively he's probably a step above Cristian Guzman, but several notches below Bernadina and Harris. Morse gives the team a little more flexibility because he can also "play" first base, though with only 85 innings of experience over four seasons it's not clear that he'd be a better defensive replacement than Adam Kennedy or even an upgrade over Adam Dunn.

A look at the roster after Morse's return highlights two ongoing concerns. One, the Nationals are still operating without a legitimate right fielder, and there's no one waiting in the wings to take over. Two, there's still no power on this team outside of the core of Zimmerman, Dunn and Willingham. When Mike Morse automatically becomes your big bopper off the bench, that's a problem. Fans are rightly focused on the arrival of Strasburg, Storen et al. to reinforce the pitching, but if the Nats are going to make a serious run at contention in 2010 Rizzo is going to need to do more in right field than just swapping Mike Morse for Willy Taveras.

Bryce Harper and the Tao of Rizzo

2010-05-14T16:23:00.005-04:00

"Talent without character doesn't work. Your lack of character will make you stumble somewhere along the line." - Washington Nationals' General Manager Mike Rizzo

Never have I seen a clearer statement of Rizzo's organizational philosophy. The Rizzo ethic stands in clear contrast to Jim Bowden's "Tools uber alles" approach and penchant for giving talented but troubled ballplayers a second home. Based on the early results, you'd have to call this a clear win for the Tao of Rizzo, wouldn't you?

Here's the thing, though. The corollary to Rizzo's first sentence is "Character without talent doesn't work either." In fact, I'm pretty comfortable asserting that a lack of talent has tripped up many more ballplayers than have been laid low by a fundamental character deficiency. Given a choice everybody wants high talent, good character players. That's about as uncontroversial as wanting smart, good-looking kids.

The question is, what ratio of character to talent do you need to be a success? More importantly, if character is what we do when no one is looking, how the hell do you measure character? On a practical level, it becomes a circular argument: "Mike Rizzo puts a premium on character, so any guy he brings in must be a good character guy." Likewise, doesn't Rizzo have to say that any player he pursues has good character? After all, if you value character you wouldn't be interested in fractuous trouble-makers.

On the flip side, other teams might rightly suspect that any player the Nats are looking to unload comes with some baggage. (Josh Willingham improved his batting stroke this offseason by clubbing baby seals, you know.)

In conclusion, no one questions Bryce Harper's talent. So the more you see Nationals' front office-types defending Bryce Harper's make-up, the surer you can be that he'll be holding a Nationals' jersey in June. After all, if Rizzo's interested, Harper must be a good guy; and if Harper wasn't a good guy the Nats wouldn't be interested, right?

BernaDINGER!

2010-05-12T19:00:00.003-04:00

Can we please get rid of Willy Taveras now?

No? Well, how about now?

Okay, but surely Willy's on the bus to Syracuse by now?

Play Bernadinger in right, play Super Willie in right, I don't care. Hell, play Mike Morse in right when he comes back. I've accepted that the Nats probably aren't going to have a right fielder who can hit and field consistently in 2010. Just get Willie Taveras off the roster.

*****

Know what else I noticed about this game? No Bruney!

Now I'm not saying that Brian the Bear is single-handedly responsible for at least 3 losses this season... no wait, that's exactly what I'm saying.

I didn't think it was possible to have less command of the strike zone than Joel "Gas Can" Hanrahan. I get that "missing bats" is a good thing for a hard-throwing reliever, but someone needs to remind Rizzo that missing bats because you're pitching a foot off the plate doesn't count.

Rizzo doesn't want to call up Storen for fear of having to pay him an extra $5M six years from now when he's still an effective closer (like Chad Cordero, Houston Street and all those other consistent young relievers). Fine, then how about Joel Peralta?

Chronicles of Pitching Depth: Volume 2

2010-05-03T21:05:00.005-04:00

I think we've discovered the multi-part featurette that Adam Kilgore keeps in the can for a rainy off-day. Every one needs an obsession, I get that. I'm just not sure there's much more gold to mine from the tragic tale of Matt Chico and his inability to crack the AAA rotation. Chico was a mediocre (and lucky) pitcher on a very bad team. Now he's an older, surgically-repaired pitcher, competing with other failed major leaguers to be the mediocrest of them all. If there's a riveting story in that, I'm not seeing it.

*****

Your Improbable 2o11 First Baseman of the Week: Alex Gordon

The official NTP editorial position is that, in the abstract, the Nats should sign Adam Dunn to an extension. We figure the Dunnkeys alone are worth a million a year. Of course, the abstract could give way to a five year, $85M albatross, and nobody (except possibly Adam) wants that. With that in mind, this is the first in an occasional series of looks at the men who could, but probably won't, replace Dunn in DC in 2011.

Alex Gordon (aka the guy drafted two places ahead of Ryan Zimmerman) is in the doghouse in Kansas City. Gordon is undeniably guilty of not being the second best player selected in the 2005 draft. Apart from that, the 26-year old's particular sins are as follows: He doesn't hit for average; he'll probably never be a 30 HR hitter; he's not an elite defensive third baseman, and he's injury-prone.

On the flip-side, he takes a walk with the best of them, he's only a few years removed from being MILB Player of the Year, and a move from third to first probably improves his defense in the long run. Best case scenario? Nick Johnson v. 2.0. Yeah, he's probably not going to be the Nationals' first baseman in 2011, (see the headline). Still, any time a player with Gordon's talent is on the outs with his club, we should hope Rizzo is kicking the tires.

What Have the Phillies Dunn?

2010-04-26T16:47:00.004-04:00

In case you somehow missed the news, Philadelphia today inked their star first baseman to a 20-year, 50 bajillion dollar contract extension. (Okay, it was 5 years, $125M, as though that makes it better.) It's rare to see a deal immediately and universally deplored, but that appears to be happening here. I'm sure someone, somewhere is lauding this as a great deal for the Phils, but I sure haven't seen it yet.

Now, as a Nats fan I'm perfectly content to see the Phillies misallocate resources on an epic scale. Perhaps Philly GM Reuben Amaro, Jr. thinks he's undergone some sort of Freaky Friday body exchange with Brian Cashman, or maybe he figures he'll be out of the picture long before Ryan Howard goes full-Albert Belle on this contract. That's fine. Philadelphia certainly has the money now, and if this is how their front office chooses to spend it, bully. But here's the problem with teams throwing that kind of money around; the repercussions impact everyone.

Craig Calcaterra has a pretty good run-down of the immediate winners and losers in Howard's new deal. Among the winners are Ryan himself, and the free agent first base class of 2011, including Albert Pujols, Prince Fielder and Adrian Gonzalez. Not mentioned by Calcaterra but slated to be a free agent first baseman this offseason? Our own Adam Dunn.

Howard's new contract extension complicates things for the Nats on a couple of fronts. One, it raises the market rate for defensively-challenged slugging first basemen on the wrong side of 30. This will make it more expensive to retain Adam, if the team is inclined to go that route. I'm not suggesting that Dunn will get, or even ask for, $25M/year, but it's not unreasonable to think that the price range for an extension may have gone up from $12-15M annually to $15-18M.

Second, and probably more important, if the Nats let Dunn walk, the cost of replacing him has also gone up. Even leaving aside Pujols, Fielder and Gonzalez, all of whom will likely command salaries equivalent to or greater than Howard's deal, a rising tide lifts all boats. Second-tier first basemen like Carlos Pena will have a new benchmark, and if Adam Dunn goes, the Nats are going to have a big void to fill.

Unless Chris Marrero shows something in AA Harrisburg pretty soon, the farm system's cupboard at 1B is more than bare. It's not just Dunn's offensive numbers that will have to be replaced (no easy task), it's the man himself. For better or worse he is the Nats most experienced first baseman. The idea of inserting Josh Whitesell or Chris Duncan as a stopgap can hardly be encouraging for a Nats franchise angling for a return to respectability over the next few seasons.

So feel free to chuckle at the Phillies today, but reserve a few tears to weep at what their profligacy may well mean for the future of your team.

Everybody Hurts

2010-04-21T23:55:00.002-04:00

I know this is just the way things are done in baseball, but that doesn't make it any less aggravating. Jason Marquis has been scuffling since Spring Training. All the while, everyone from Rizzo to Riggleman to McCatty to Marquis himself swears up and down that it's mental, or mechanical, anything but physical. Then, all of a sudden they examine him and, lo and behold, his pitching elbow is chock full of grape nuts and ball bearings. Needless to say, he's DL-bound.

Okay, things crop up, I get that. Pitchers are used to a certain amount of pain, soreness and discomfort. Maybe it's hard to separate that from a new and different pain. That's why teams have trainers, team doctors, outside specialists, physical exams and MRIs. I'm no doctor, but floating bodies in the elbow doesn't sound like something you wake up with one morning after an ill-advised 3 am convenience store egg salad sandwich. After all, this is the same Jason Marquis whose 6.05 ERA last September got him left off the Rockies playoff roster.

Over the winter this franchise gave Jason Marquis more money than any pitcher in Nationals' history. I really hope they did their due diligence. This isn't Vinny Castilla for Brian Lawrence. There were a half dozen guys roughly equivalent to Marquis available this offseason, and somehow the Nats ended up giving $15M to the guy with the bum elbow. Seems like this has the potential to be another big black eye for the team's none-to-highly-regarded medical staff.

For all I know, "floating bodies" is the 2010 equivalent of Dontrelle Willis disorder. Jason Marquis certainly looks like a guy who could use a few weeks off and a low pressure rehab assignment. I'm not sure how time off is supposed to cure miscellaneous junk in the elbow though. Maybe it's a conservation of energy thing: floating bodies at rest tend to stay at rest? I guess we'll see. Is it June yet?

On a related note, I'm ignoring Zimmerman's cramp in the hopes that it will go away quietly. If he misses any significant time expect a remix of my post on how this team's vaunted "versatility" really won't be of any use in replacing key offensive production.

Won't Somebody Please Think of the Children?

2010-04-19T18:15:00.003-04:00

Children's National Medical Center is hosting a benefit at Nationals Park this Sunday, April 25th when the Nats host the Dodgers. One third of every ticket sold through this link will be donated to the Pediatric Diabetes Care Complex in DC. The Nationals have been involved with this project through their Dream Foundation for several years.

If you're going to the game anyway, get your tickets here. If you weren't going, now you have an excuse. It's for charity! Once they knock out childhood diabetes, CNMC can start trying to figure out what ails Jason Marquis.

The link to order tickets is: www.nationals.com/childrensnational

Speaking of the youngsters, Past a Diving Vidro has a thoroughly depressing look back at the Nats stars of the future past, circa 2005. If this really is the first in a series we may all need medical care before Kevin makes it to 2009.

I love it when a post title works on multiple levels.

Did Rizzo Keep the Receipt?

2010-04-18T21:39:00.003-04:00

"Jason Marquis is no ace, but he'll give you 200 innings of league average pitching, sparing Nats fans from the 2010 version of the "Daniel Cabrera Experience"."
- Nats Triple Play, December 27, 2009

That, Nats fans, is a swing-and-miss. (Also known as that thing Jason Marquis generated exactly none of today.) Frankly, Daniel Cabrera v. 2009 would be considered a rotation stabilizer at this point. So, if you've ever wondered why I'm typing in a darkened basement and not heading up a major league scouting operation, now you know.

Tony Armas, Tomo Ohka, Zach Day, Tim Redding, Ramon Ortiz, Pedro Astacio, Ryan Drese... this is just a sampling of the notable names who have started at least 10 games for the Washington Nationals. None of these guys managed to lay an egg the size of the one that Jason Marquis produced on Sunday. That said, a blowout loss doesn't count for any more than a squeaker, so there's no particular reason to dwell on today's result.

There are reasons to be concerned about Jason Marquis. He hasn't looked right since coming to DC. From day one of Spring Training to his 28th and final pitch this afternoon he's been completely ineffective. He's a sinkerballer who's not getting ground balls, a pitch-to-contact guy who can't find the strike zone. For now we have to take the team at its word that the problem isn't physical. Unfortunately, that means the issue is somewhere between his head and his arm. It's time for Steve McCatty to earn his money. Otherwise, don't be shocked when Marquis comes down with "dead arm" and needs a trip to the disabled list and a minor league rehab stint just about the time Garrett Mock is ready to come off the DL.

That's right, as of today Garrett Mock is officially a better option for the starting rotation than Jason Marquis. June can't come soon enough.

Livan Hernandez: An Appreciation

2010-04-17T15:43:00.005-04:00

It is fitting that Livan Hernandez returned the Washington Nationals to winning baseball. No pitcher better represents the spirit of this team. Even when he's been with other clubs Livo has remained close to the heart of Nats fans - a feeling that's clearly mutual. We should savor every inning, because it's unlikely that we'll get to enjoy a pitcher quite like Hernandez again.

Photo from MissChatter's photostream

If you didn't get a chance to see today's performance, you missed out on the Nationals' most complete game of the season. The bats were working up and down the lineup, but Livan's complete game, 4-hit shutout was the story. Working off his standard 85 mph fastball, changeup and ridiculous 63 mph curve, Hernandez kept the Brewers off-balance all day without breaking a sweat. This performance follows on the heels of seven shutout innings against the Mets last week in Queens. 16 shutout innings by a starter to start the season is, no surprise, a DC franchise record.

More than anything else, it's just a joy to watch Livo pitch. He never looks like he's laboring, he never pays undue attention to the guys on base and he's perfectly willing to throw a 3-2 strike and make the batter do something with it. Hernandez provides a blueprint to success for every other pitcher on Mike Rizzo's pitch-to-contact staff. Hit your spots, mix your pitches and trust your defense. It's even possible to strike a few guys out if you slip a fastball by them while they're looking for a 73 mph changeup.

Livan won't pitch seven scoreless every time out, and if he has a game where he's getting squeezed or missing his spots, he'll just as likely give up as many runs as innings pitched. Nevertheless, if you have a chance to take in a Nats game this season before Saint Stephen of Harrisburg makes his debut, I highly recommend aiming for a Livo start. You haven't lived until you've seen a big fat guy lobbing baseballs into home plate and making major league hitters look silly.

Nats - Dunn = .500

2010-04-16T23:02:00.004-04:00

Thanks to tonight's 5-3 victory we can say with a fair degree of certainty that Adam Dunn knows the strike zone better than the umps, but tossing your helmet will get you tossed every time. Also, Josh Willingham can wear the hell out of a silver Elvis wig. On the other hand, there are all sorts of bad lessons that Jim Riggleman could draw from this win over the Brew Crew.

Bad Lesson #1: Zimmerman and Dunn are sort of superfluous. Willingham and Nieves are all the offense any team needs.

Bad Lesson #2: Batting Guzman and Gonzalez 3-4 is the key to victory. Slappy and scrappy beat OBP and SLG any day.

Bad Lesson #3: Ian Desmond should sacrifice bunt more often!

Bad Lesson #4: Brian Bruney is exciting and should be employed to liven up any ballgame.

One day the lack of secondary power on the roster (aka hitters other than Dunn, Zimm and the Hammer) will come back to bite this team. Fortunately, today was not that day. Instead, a solid performance from John Lannan and just enough timely offense was enough to get the Nats back to break even.

Tonight's win should give the Nats new journo-bloggers some good material. In general though, I'm with Kevin and Chris on this issue. Until someone with credentials kneecaps Dibble, that is.

In other news:

.500 ball is enough to bring all sorts of old friends out of the woodwork.
Behold, Stan Kasten's favorite customers in all their hometown glory.
You mean Strasburg can't control the weather? OVERRATED!

The Great Roster Panic of '10

2010-04-11T11:20:00.003-04:00

Zimm out, Mock down, Bernadina up, Morse to DL. So much for lazy Sundays. On the heels of an exciting 4-3 win over the Mets, one (hopefully) minor run of injuries has exposed everything that is wrong with the way Rizzo and Riggleman constructed the season opening roster. Much ink has already been spilled on the "versatility" of the 2010 Nats, but the dark side of versatility is having a bunch of guys playing out of position. Let's look at the two most glaring omissions:

1. No backup corner infielders. After Zimm, guess who has the most experience at 3rd base? Adam Kennedy. All of Adam's experience actually came last season with Oakland, so at least he's fresh. After him it's Willie Harris, Mike Morse and the couple of innings Guzie played at 3B during the All Star game. First base? Don't ask. Past polished veteran 1B Adam Dunn, you've got Morse's 85 innings and 23 from unsuspected utility guy Kennedy. Oh, and The Hammer has 4 innings on the infield. So we've got that going for us, which is nice.

2. No right fielder. Willie Harris? 10 innings in right before this season. Mike Morse? 87 innings from 2005-2009. "Natural" right fielder Willy Taveras? 1 inning in right (in 2004!) before this season. That's without even bringing Guzman into the conversation. FWIW, Rog Bernadina has also primarily been a CF in his five seasons in the minors. That's not to say that any or all of these guys can't play an acceptable right field, just that they'll all be learning on the job.

On the surface neither of these is really a big deal. After all, if Zimm or Dunn miss any significant amount of time the Nats are pretty well screwed regardless of who's covering for them off the bench. And you can live with one outfielder learning a new position on the fly, though only Morse really has the bat to play in RF.

The problems arise when, as happened yesterday, you get a spate of minor injuries. Mike Morse tweaks a hammy, no big deal, you've got a little more playing time for Taveras, Guzman and Alberto Gonzales. Ryan Zimmerman tweaks a hammy the same week as Morse? All of a sudden you're shuffling either your starting right fielder (Harris) or starting second baseman (Kennedy) to third, starting a career shortstop (Guzman) at second or in right, or counting on a guy who was supposed to be your 5th outfielder/defensive replacement/pinch runner (Taveras) for significant innings.

Of course, some of these problems could be avoided in the Nats carried an extra bench player, but to do that they'd need to jettison a reliever. Seeing as how the team is currently carrying an 8-man bullpen, you'd think that shouldn't be a huge issue. It certainly wouldn't be if the starters could be counted on for more than 4 innings. Which brings us Garrett Mock's well-deserved, one week overdue demotion.

Getting Mock out of the starting rotation was the right thing to do, but it's unlikely to solve the problem. After all, if there were somebody (not named Strasburg) who was head and shoulders better than Mock, they'd have been with the team to start the season while Garrett savored spring time in Syracuse. So you see, all the Nats' problems, from Zimmerman's hamstring to Willy Taveras' continued employment, flow from a lack of quality starting pitching.

If only there was something to be done about that...

About That Pitching Depth

2010-04-10T11:47:00.004-04:00

This is a largely meaningless piece of early season fluff from new WaPo beat writer Adam Kilgore. I'm not ripping Adam, pieces like this are inevitable when every beat writer has blogs to fill and chats to host in addition to the standard gamers and traditional longer-form stories. When you have to find something to talk about other than how the team's front office, pitching and roster construction all suck eggs, you get a one-off post on the Nationals' improved minor league pitching depth.

The article is accurate, as far as it goes. Matt Chico, who started 31 games for the Nationals in 2007, is currently assigned to AA Harrisburg as he continues to rehab from Tommy John surgery. Lots of guys come back from TJ surgery these days, and some even come back stronger, so there's reason to think that we might see Chico in the big leagues again one day. But here's the thing: even as a fully healthy 24 year-old Matty was maxed out as the "workhorse" on one of the worst pitching staffs in modern baseball history. Could a now 27 year-old Chico really be expected to improve on his 2007 performance (10 H/9, 4 BB/9, 5 KK/9, 91 ERA+)?

Chico is at AA because the AAA roster is chock full of MLB "veterans." Scott Olson, J.D. Martin, Colin Balester and Shairon Martis all have experience as major league starters, though experience shouldn't be confused with success. The truth is, if any of these guys were good enough, Messrs. Stammen, Hernandez and Mock would not be a serious impediment to their promotion.

In truth, the Nats don't so much have improved pitching depth as they do improved pitching breadth. From Stammen and Hernandez, to Olsen, Mock, Martin and the rest the Nats have eight or nine guys who could be fairly interchangeable below average starters. Some are a little bit older, some are more flyballers than groundballers, most have only a rough idea where the ball is going when it leaves their hand. None of these guys can be counted on for six or more innings on a regular basis, and having more than two of them in the rotation would quickly burn out even an eight man bullpen.

Does this constitute an improvement? I suppose that's a matter of perspective. In 2010, Matt Chico no longer has a clear path to the front of the Nats rotation. Unfortunately, that's because he's competing with a half dozen Matt Chico clones.

Stan to Fans: Come Back When We're Good

2010-04-07T15:21:00.003-04:00

"[A]s anyone who has watched bad teams turn into good teams, in any sport, these problems dissipate as teams improve, as home teams followers get more numerous and more enthusiaistic."
- Stan Kasten, President, Washington Nationals

Good news, Nats fans: you can stop caring now! The team is lousy, so it shouldn't bother you that your stadium was overrun by barbarian hordes from the north, or that the ticket office is more interested in selling blocks of tickets to opposing fans than they are in providing single game tickets to locals, even season ticket holders. My only gripe with this Adam Kilgore piece is the headline. Phillies fans didn't have to infiltrate Nationals Park; they were invited in.

"We get the attendance we deserve." - Kasten

Sure, they somehow ran out of hot dogs and beer on Day 1 of the season, but you shouldn't care because you shouldn't even have been there! Given that they've done nothing to deserve DC fans showing up, it's no wonder they're both surprised and unprepared when we do. Really, it's a little rude for us to just show up uninvited. For all you know, you could have been gatecrashing one of Stan's prized special events.

"We sell season tickets and book groups all winter long. For every game of the season." - Kasten

Nothing personal, just business. Opening Day is just another game, Phillies fans are just more paying customers. But if that's the company line, why did they suddenly pull the plug on customers from the Jersylvaniware market in February? Did someone stop to consider the optics of having 25,000 booing, battery-tossers serenading the President on Opening Day in the Nation's Capital? Did someone think of the children?! Or did someone in the organization realize that they set the stage for a massive clusterf#$k, but it was too late to do anything about it.

I think our proudest accomplishment gets measured every home game during the season, when we see fans enjoying themselves at Nationals Park. - Mark Lerner, Principal Owner, Washington Nationals

To be fair, he didn't say, "when we see Nationals fans enjoying themselves at Nationals Park." It's undeniably true that lots of fans had a great time on Monday. Lerner and Kasten have always aspired to make the Nationals more than just another local baseball team. Lerner talks about the Nationals as "America's Team" (a moniker that any DC sports fan could tell you has serious negative connotations.)

As I've noted before, Washington, DC is perhaps uniquely suited to become baseball's great neutral site, everybody's house and nobody's home. A Nationals' game could easily become another must-see item on every tourist's agenda. The danger with that aspiration is that you run the risk of turning the home team into the Washington Generals. You'll be world renowned, make millions of dollars and everybody will leave the stadium happy, having seen their hometown "Globetrotters" demolish their opponent.

If that's ownership's vision for the franchise, so be it. But they should tell us so now, so the locals can adjust their financial, and more importantly, their emotional investment accordingly. On the other hand, if the Lerners and Stan Kasten really want to make the Nationals into a world-class franchise, they have to make the team a success for DC, not just a success in DC.

A Complete(ly Embarrassing) Game

2010-04-05T17:23:00.005-04:00

Though I live just 150 miles from the city of Philadelphia, I have never been to a baseball game at Citizens Bank Park. And yet, I feel that I can say I have, because I attended Opening Day 2010 at Nationals Park. If the crowd was less than 70/30 Phillies fans I will eat my Replica BP Hat, hundreds of which probably ended up in trash cans immediately after being distributed to the Philly faithful. I'm not sure GEICO's going to be thrilled with that particular marketing expenditure.

The Phillies have a large and vocal fanbase (larger and more vocal since their recent run of success, but c'est la vie.) A good number of transplanted Pennsylvanians live in the DC metro area, and of course it's a relatively easy three hours down I-95 from the City of Brotherly Love itself. So it's not surprising that Philly baseball fans come to DC to take in a game. What rankles is when Washington fans feel like visitors, even interlopers, in their own park. From booing Ryan Zimmerman's awards presentations to serenading the visitors with nicknames and chants, the auditory experience of today's game was all Philly, all the time.

To quote the guy who threw out the first pitch, "Let me be clear." I don't blame the Philly fans. This is what they do. At home, on the road, on their couches, and for all I know, in their sleep. They're loud, boorish, not infrequently drunk, and at least as prone to pick fights with each other as with opposing fans. They've found a home away from home on South Capitol Street, and they treat it that way. The responsibility for the present state of affairs rests solely with the ownership and management of the Washington Nationals.

It was just last year when Stan Kasten went on the radio in Philly and all but begged the locals to turn our stadium into CBP-South. I'd say today's showing means it's Mission Accomplished. In the six seasons since baseball returned to Washington, DC I've been to every home opener and 100 more games besides. I was at two of the three games the Yankees played at RFK and the crowd there was much closer to 50/50. Maybe the Red Sox games were as lopsided, but hell, the Sox do that everywhere.

This was Opening Day. The game that was supposed to showcase Mike Rizzo's rebuilt, revitalized Nationals. I've seen a lot of embarrassing things on and off the field over six years of Nats fandom, but I was never embarrassed to be a fan of this franchise until today. I understand that Washington is a city of perpetual transplants, and local sporting events are always going to be forums for showcasing divided loyalties. I also accept that DC is a front-running town that loves to claim winners as its own. (I grew up here, I'm a big boy, I know the score.) But none of that provides an excuse for what I saw in the stands at Nationals Park today.

From a purely financial perspective, what matters is that tickets are sold, not who fills the seats, or even if the seats are filled. Ted and Mark Lerner and Stan Kasten can probably run a perennially profitable operation catering to transplants, tourists, visitors and everyone but DC baseball fans. Because those folks won't care that the right fielder is a light-hitting career utility man, or that the back half of the rotation is a cobbled together mess for the fifth year running. They won't notice that the farm system, for all the hype and blather about "building from the ground up", really hasn't produced anything all that remarkable. Why should the Philly fans of the world care that while the owner talks about spending money to compete, it never quite seems to happen? Those folks come to enjoy a nice stadium they didn't pay for and root for the visiting team to whip the Nats. More often than not, they leave happy, having deposited a few more dollars in Uncle Ted's alabaster piggy bank.

It's a system that works great, for everybody but the fans of the Washington Nationals. And if there are fewer of us every year, well, can you honestly be surprised? Half the time you can't find this organization with a compass and a map. They've buried a great radio team on a hit-and-miss AM signal. The TV rights are held hostage to an agreement that ought to be a case study on how not to negotiate a media contract. Advertising, to the extent that there is any, is mostly confined to these outlets. I'm not a marketing guy (I leave the flashy stuff to Dave) but it sure looks to me like the Nats are doing everything possible not to broaden their appeal to a wider audience, at least not if that audience is local.

I write this with no particular hope or expectation that things will change soon, or even at all. Lest you think that I'm simply a bitter crank, I'm happy to report that today on the banks of the Anacostia, the sun was warm, the beer (when available) was cold, and an afternoon at Nationals Park still beats a day at the office 100 times out of 100. But if we don't expect more, we certainly can't complain about never getting it...

*****

UPDATE: Also, what he said. And Needham expands on why we're all probably just talking to ourselves. $2,000,000 buys a lot of ear plugs.

NTP Season Preview: WTF Happened Here?

2010-04-05T00:08:00.003-04:00

2010 is supposed to be the season that the Washington Nationals climb back into ~~contention~~, ~~competition~~, the conversation in the National League. Zimmerman, Dunn and Willingham anchor the middle of a lineup sparked by Nyjer Morgan. John Lannan leads a staff that just has to hold it together long enough for the second coming (of Stephen Strasburg) to arrive. Matt Capps and Brian Bruney were brought on board to round out a bullpen that almost literally couldn't be any worse. So why does it feel like the summer of 2010 will be another wasted season on the banks of the Anacostia?

1. The Future is Now... Early June

There are good and sensible reasons to let Stephen Strasburg cut his teeth in Harrisburg for two months, but there's no denying it makes the 2010 squad both worse, and more importantly less interesting. It's probably the right thing to do, but it's a tough pill to swallow for a franchise that hasn't had a really compelling storyline to sell since June of 2005.

2. This Wasn't Part of "The Plan", Man!

On the eve of the 2009 season Nats fans were hoping that the addition of Adam Dunn would help Ryan Zimmerman rebound from a sub-par 2008. But three players were expected to build on promising 2008 campaigns: C Jesus Flores, CF Lastings Milledge and RF Elijah Dukes (all 24 on Opening Day). Flash forward one year. Flores has played just 23 games, Milledge lasted all of 7 games before being shipped to Pittsburgh by way of the minor leagues and Dukes' departure was even more abrupt. More on that later, but the lesson here is twofold: 1) Even the best prospects are still just "prospects", and 2) two out of the three have been replaced by older, less talented players for 2010. That's an unorthodox take on rebuilding.

3. A Little Less Talk, A Lot More Action

The Nats were "in" on Aroldis Chapman but balked at the ultimate price. Sure, Chapman isn't the Cuban Strasburg, but he got uniformly rave reviews this Spring. The Nats "talked" to a number of other veteran starters after inking Jason Marquis, but ended up "solidifying" the rotation with (old friend and fan favorite, but c'mon... really) Livan Hernandez. Orlando Hudson apparently actually wanted to play in DC, just not at the price the Nats were offering, leaving the team with Adam "Plan B" Kennedy. But really, what's worse than any of those things in isolation is the creeping suspicion that either this team's owners are stupid, or they think the fans are.

4. Passing Over Elijah

Now that some time has passed, this deserves much more comment. I don't care if Mike Rizzo doesn't like Elijah Dukes, doesn't trust him, doesn't think he'll ever learn to stop swinging at that breaking ball low and away and will never be healthy enough to play 150 games in the field. You don't cut your 25 year-old de facto starting right fielder without having a plan in place to replace him. Clubhouse chemistry does not win ball games, guys that can take a pitch 400 feet the other way do. It seems to me that the last Nats team that was lauded for its clubhouse chemistry was the 2005 squad, and their right fielder was a certified lunatic.

To be any kind of competitive in 2010, the Nats need to make up for Elijah's offense. Harper pretty much had Dukes pegged as the Offensive Key to the season, so you can see this is more than just a passing concern. Maybe Ian Desmond can take up some of that slack, but don't hold your breath hoping for a renaissance from Pudge Rodriguez or Adam Kennedy. Zimmerman, Dunn and Willingham just don't have much room for improvement, and Nyjer Morgan was already playing over his head. In the post-steroid era we probably shouldn't expect to see new RF Willie Harris pull a Brady Anderson either.

Speaking of new right fielders, I need to address this headline briefly. Willy Taveras did not "earn" a job with the Nats. Willy Taveras cannot earn a job in major league baseball, he can only be given one. If you'd like this rant with a side of number, go here or here. As for how anybody could hand Willy Taveras a job in 2010, maybe it's...

5. The Ghost of Jim Bowden

Toolsy former Reds outfielder on the roster (and in the lineup) for no apparent reason? Check.
Multi-year, multi-million dollar contract for a washed up catcher? Check.
Overvaluing veteran relievers off the scrapheap? Check.
Roster constructed to leave a surplus at one position and a deficiency at others? Check.
No discernible progress on the international scouting front? Check.
Ian "Jeter" Desmond at shortstop? Check.

So tell me again how everything's going to be different once Mike Rizzo's in charge? Yes, I know, it's still too soon to judge Rizzo. But that time is coming, and it's coming in months, not years.

And finally...

The End of GUZMANIA!

You'd think I'd be upset about this. But here's what you don't understand. Cristian Guzman was trapped at shortstop like Napoleon on Elba. Mike Rizzo and Jim Riggleman have freed him to rampage across the diamond. Before you could be pretty sure where Guzman would be. Now he's gained the element of surprise. That, along with a fanatical devotion to never drawing a walk, will be his greatest weapon! (In other words, Nationals fans are so deeply screwed in 2010 that Cristian Guzman's problems don't amount to a hill of beans.)

Oh well, at least the Redskins are finally showing some signs of returning to the land of competent, professionally managed organiz... WHAT THE F@&%?!

President Obama to Throw First Pitch at Nats Home Opener

2010-03-29T22:45:00.002-04:00

I'm reposting this from DCist -- the Nats Triple Play crew will be out.

I'm just starting to care again about baseball.

-- Dave.

President Obama to Throw First Pitch at Nats Home Opener

Photo by laura padgett

If you managed to score tickets to opening day at Nationals Park, you're in luck: President Barack Obama will throw out the ceremonial first pitch at the Washington Nationals home opener on Monday, April 5.

The pitch, scheduled for 1:05 p.m., will mark the first time President Obama has accepted such an invitation from the Nationals. Obama declined to throw the first pitch last year, citing his busy schedule, and the team instead had members of all five branches of the U.S. military do the honors.

In addition to being Obama's first appearance at Nationals Park, the event will mark the 100th anniversary of the first time a U.S. President threw an opening day pitch, and the 48th time a President has done so in Washington. William Howard Taft started the tradition on April 14, 1910, in a game that pitted the Washington Senators against the Philadelphia Athletics. The Nationals will face the defending National League Champion Philadelphia Phillies on April 5, which will feature John Lannan facing off against Phillies superstar pitcher Roy Halladay.

Individual tickets are no longer available to the game, but the club plans to offer 400 seats in sections 401 and 402 for only $5 starting at 10 a.m. on game day at the Nationals Park main box office. Given the president's planned appearance, we expect those tickets to sell out in minutes.

There will be enhanced security at the game thanks to the secret service, so the Nationals are encouraging fans to arrive an hour to two hours earlier than normal. Gates will open at 10 a.m., and attendees should plan on waiting in line to pass through security.

(Via DCist.)

Rizzo Drinks in the Afternoon

2010-03-24T19:31:00.002-04:00

And starts to sober up around 7. That's my kind of GM.

Just keep him away from the segway.

Mike Rizzo's Chemistry Experiment

2010-03-17T16:33:00.002-04:00

Dammit all, I was doing so well ignoring Spring Training. The scores don't mean anything because half the players won't see a major league roster this season. The stats don't mean anything because the players are working on things rather than trying to hit the ball, score runs or get batters out. Aside from overwrought "Ian Desmond for Opening Day shortstop" movement, (which conveniently ignores the whole "spring training stats are meaningless" thing) there hasn't really been any reason to follow the Nats too closely.

Until today, when out of the clear blue sky the Nats released presumptive Opening Day right fielder Elijah Dukes with a terse statement. Not traded, not optioned to minor league camp... released. Here's a list of guys who have been released by the Nationals this spring: Shawn Estes, Ron Villone, Eddie Guardado, Logan Kensing, Elijah Dukes. One of these things is not like the others, and it ain't Kensing.

When the Nats released Everyday Eddie Guardado after over-hyping his minor league contract and NRI earlier in the offseason, there was a minor groundswell of chatter around the Natmosphere. How could Mike Rizzo cut loose a guy who was previously touted as a mentor, clubhouse guru and stabilizing force after two bad innings? Though I resisted the urge to publish it at the time, (see above re: ignoring Spring Training) here's my quick hitter on the Guardado kerfluffle:

Eddie Guardado's release proves that Mike Rizzo is the second worst General Manager in Washington Nationals history. When Jim Bowden went dumpster-diving for a washed up reliever on a minor league contract with a spring training invite, he stuck with him for at least a dozen early season bullpen appearances. Mike Rizzo knows nothing about that kind of commitment to a bit.

The popular reaction to Guardado was way overblown, but the reaction to Dukes' release may be, if anything, too understated. Rob Neyer has a thoughtful post on why this probably isn't nearly so bad as it looks, and I don't disagree with his analysis. Dukes did seem to be regressing, was chronically bothered by nagging lower body injuries and while still young-ish he wasn't really a prospect anymore.

Still, to completely jettison a 25 year-old one year removed from a great season while he still has a minor league option remaining is bizarre and worthy of additional investigation. While steadfastly insisting that this was a pure baseball decision, Rizzo cited "clubhouse matters" and "chemistry" issues surrounding Elijah. OF Justin Maxwell likewise alluded to Dukes-related
"distractions."

If "toolsy" was watchword of Jim Bowden's tenure as GM, "chemistry" has been Rizzo's guiding star. From ripping Stephen Shell's aura to selling low on mercurial outfielder Lastings Milledge Rizzo seems to have an exceptionally low tolerance for anyone who disrupts his cherished clubhouse vibe. Fans who disparaged Bowden's penchant for valuing potential and flash over performance and results may find that Rizzo's yen for solid, steady reliability isn't the key to a championship either.

You know who has good chemistry? Winning teams. You know who has bad chemistry? Losing teams. If the Nats fought, bitched and backstabbed their way to a Wild Card berth, that'd be fine by me. On the other hand, a united, cohesive group of guys pulling together professionally for a 70 win season? Pass. Rizzo says this is a baseball decision, which means that he thinks starting Mike Morse, Justin Maxwell or Roger Bernadina in rightfield will make the Nats a better baseball team than they were with Dukes. I'm not sure I believe him.

Postscript: If this move has anything to do with getting Ian Desmond regular at-bats as a rightfielder then Rizzo, Riggleman and Kasten should join Dukes on the unemployment line tomorrow. If Desmond is one of the 25 best players on the team the Nats should make a place for him on the infield. If they need to release or bench somebody to make that happen, well, that's a baseball move. Otherwise Mike Rizzo is a really bad liar.

Doing Arbitration Right

2010-02-17T22:26:00.003-05:00

Maybe the Nats are a little arb happy. Maybe the Lerners are cheap. Maybe Stan Kasten's stubborn, or maybe Mike Rizzo has an ego the size of Livan Hernandez. I don't know... and neither do you. Here's what I know: just because you decide to take a player to arbitration doesn't mean you have to trash him. From Nationals Journal:

According to Bruney, Washington argued for the lesser of those salaries by emphasizing the relief pitcher's recent injury history.

It's easy to see how disagreements about a pitcher's talent and results can get heated and leave hard feelings. It's harder to see how a player can get very upset about the observation that he just hasn't been 100% for the last few years.

Rizzo: You've been banged up.
Bruney: Have not.
Rizzo: Have too.
Bruney: It's just a flesh wound.

In any case, Bruney said he trusted the market to tell him what he's worth, and the market has spoken.

The Unthinkable

2010-02-13T10:32:00.004-05:00

Felipe Lopez is still out there. The best free agent second baseman available is still looking for work. The guy who put up a .310/.383!/.427 line in Arizona and Milwaukee last year, with better defense than Orlando Hudson, isn't going to Spring Training without buying a ticket. He's just axed Scott Boras too, probably in reaction to being unemployed longer than Adam Everett, Kelly Johnson, Alex Gonzalez, Melvin Mora and Adam Kennedy.

I don't like Felipe Lopez. There's no doubt in my mind that he quit on the Nationals in 2007-08. He dogged it, phoned it in, went through the motions, whatever you want to call it. I doubt you'll find a single Nats fan willing to come to FLop's defense. He was playing out of position, on a terrible team, and all evidence suggests that he was a bad seed, on the field and off. But that was then, and baseball makes strange bedfellows.

Mike Rizzo's stated goal for the offseason was to improve the infield defense. Maybe he did that with the Adam Kennedy signing. Personally, I'm not convinced that a 34 year-old 2B coming off his first good offensive season since 2005, (and his worst defensive season ever) is the answer to the Nats infield woes. If Kennedy were bumped to the bench, he'd be an upgrade over Alberto Gonzalez or Eric Bruntlett, and at $1.25M he'd still be making less than Ronnie Belliard was paid to do the same job last season.

Of course, all this is idle blogger chatter. The Nats have expressed no interest in Lopez, and he's certainly given no sign that he's inclined to come back. However, this is a very different team since Felipe left in 2008. New GM, new manager and a boatload of new players. And Spring Training is just around the corner.

Maybe the reason he's still looking for work is that he really is a clubhouse cancer even when he's playing well for a contender. If that's the case then the Nats are justified in staying well away. But if Rizzo is serious about constantly looking for was to improve the club, this is one stone he really shouldn't leave unturned.

Everybody Wang Chung Tonight*

2010-02-10T10:00:00.001-05:00

Now this is dumpster-diving we can believe in. Per the Boston Globe's Pete Abraham, (via MLBTradeRumors) SP Chien-Ming Wang is on the verge of agreeing to a contract with the Nats. If this is what Mike Rizzo did with the money he saved on Adam Kennedy, that's alright by me.

Wang comes with an host of question marks, but so does everyone else available at this point. He's coming off shoulder surgery, so there's no way he's ready to start the season (his agent says mid-May, which makes me think maybe June 1st.) Wang's only pitched 137 innings in the last two years, and his numbers last season were atrocious, so we probably aren't getting the 2006 Cy Young runner-up, two-time 19 game winner. Even what he does well could be a problem.

Wang's a groundball pitcher. It may even be fair to say that he's the groundball pitcher. To be successful he needs a good infield defense behind him. The Nats have never had a good infield defense, particularly up the middle. Improving that defense was one of Rizzo's stated goals for the offseason, but the projected 2010 Dunn-Kennedy-Guzman-Zimmerman infield is still a huge defensive question mark.

Nevertheless, it's a great low-risk pick-up for the Nats, a welcome respite from the Bowden impersonator that signed Miguel Batista (Basil's man-crush notwithstanding) and Shawn Estes. It's also a good sign that Rizzo isn't resigned to a 2010 rotation of Marquis-Lannan and a 3-game forfeit. Pitchers and catchers report in just over a week, so everybody have fun tonight!

*Yes, I know how it's pronounced, but if Wang is Wong I don't want to be right.

Send a Blogger to Camp

2010-02-08T19:55:00.002-05:00

I've been remiss in failing to note the arrival of a distinguished new member of the Natmosphere. Mark Zuckerman is a familiar name to long-suffering Nats fans, as he's been covering the team for that other Washington daily paper for nigh unto five seasons. Of course, that other paper has decided to reinvent itself as a conservative Politico (redundant?) so Mark finds himself adrift among the basement dwellers.

In other words, Mark Z's got a brand new bag. A link to his NATS INSIDER blog (ohh... original) is off to the right. Of course, as a newly-minted freelancer Mark's got to pay his own freight, which is where we come in. In the interest of having someone other than Phil Wood, Rocket Bill Ladson and the Post's newest intern/mailroom clerk/Nats beat scribe reporting from Viera, Zuckerman is soliciting contributions to fund his vaca... coverage of Spring Training. This is what Bob Levey should have been doing all these years.

There's no question that this is a worthy cause. Not Haiti-worthy, certainly, but for a fan of the Nationals and intelligent baseball coverage, important. So give a few bucks in order that somebody with a BBWAA card can ask Riggleman why in God's name he wants to use Ian Desmond as a utility infielder. Click here to contribute.

Now, an editorial aside. Sending Mark Zuckerman to Viera is all fine and good. FJB can tell you why in breath-taking detail. Access is good. But even better is a willingness to ask the questions fans actually want answered without fear of losing that access. Maybe Mark the blogger will find himself more free to do that than Mark the Times reporter. I don't know. What I do know is that given the choice I'd rather raise money to send Chris Needham, Steven Biel and Brian Oliver to Space Coast Stadium. Stupid, pesky real jobs get in the way of all my best ideas.

Nats Eyeing Wang*

2010-02-03T20:04:00.005-05:00

Mike Rizzo may not be officially "done" trying to add one more veteran arm to the 2010, but the search has clearly shifted from legitimate free agent upgrade (Jason Marquis) to the Nats old familiar haunt, Trader Jim's Bargain Bin and Retread Emporium, home of the likes of Miguel Batista and Chuck James. Quoth the Rizz, "There is nobody ... out there on the pitching market that is a difference maker." Which leads us to the newest item in the display case, ex-Yankee SP Chein-Ming Wang.

Wang is coming off back-to-back injury shortened seasons, and he's not expected to be ready to start the 2010 season. Add to that the fact that he's a ground ball pitcher on a team preparing to roll out Adam Dunn at 1B and a yet-to-be-determined middle infield (Orlando Hudson is not a defensive upgrade!!1!) and what we have here is an unstoppable recipe for success. Still, Rizzo is probably right. Wang is likely no worse than another rehab project like Eric Bedard or any of the cast of undistinguished fifth starters still available as free agents.

Trading for a starter would probably net a better player, but at the cost of opening up another hole in a still patchwork lineup. In the meantime, Rizzo just lost another potential fifth starter candidate when the Milwaukee Brewers claimed Marco Estrada off waivers. Hmmm... losing serviceable young starting prospects on waivers to clear roster space for fungible vets. Who does that remind you of?

*No, I'm not proud of that, but I'm not made of stone.

Any Orlando Will Do

2010-01-23T07:07:00.006-05:00

The Washington Nationals came into the 2010 offseason with a legitimate hole in the roster at second base. Lucky for them, the 2010 free agent class featured an abundance of capable middle infielders. Mark DeRosa, Marco Scutaro, Orlando Hudson and Felipe Lopez (admittedly unlikely to sign on for a return engagement in DC) were among the "big" names, but there were more than a few glove-first types: Adam Everett, John McDonald and Alex Gonzalez for starters.

As you'd expect, the Nats were linked to a number of these guys. DeRosa and Everett were acknowledged targets before they signed elsewhere. Hudson has been a constant presence, and Adam Kennedy surfaced recently as an alternative. But nowhere in all of this chatter has anyone uttered the name Orlando Cabrera. Until yesterday.

Know why nobody talks about O-Cab anymore? Because he's done. He was once (and I mean that literally, one year) a good hitter for a shortstop, but any value in his bat was tied to his position. And he hasn't been a good shortstop for a long time. That's okay though, because the Nats plan to move him to second base!

Orlando Cabrera has appeared in over 1700 major league games. He's played second base 33 times, most recently a 3-inning stint in one game in the year 2000. This is not a case of guy dusting off the old mitt and getting back in the groove. This would be a 36-year old learning an entirely new position for a new team in two months. Cabrera's an athlete and I'm sure he wouldn't embarrass himself, but what exactly is the supposed upside to this move? A Guzman-Cabrera middle infield? Surely you jest.

Maybe it's just an Orlando thing. Orlando Hudson playing hard to get? Sign Orlando Cabrera. In that case, I present the NTP-approved list of Alternative Orlandos (in order of preference):

Orlando Jones - he played a wide receiver in The Replacements, he could fake second base.
Orlando Bloom - recently named UNICEF goodwill ambassador, could help with international scouting.
Tony Orlando - he don't love you (like I love you).
Orlando Cabrera - more upside.
Or... Lando Calrissian - yes, it's a stretch. Yes, I'd still prefer Billy Dee to O-Cab.

Washington-on-Hudson

2010-01-15T17:17:00.003-05:00

The Washington Nationals flirtation with 2B Orlando Hudson has none of the glacial majesty of the Mets pursuit of Bengie Molina, though if you consider that it arguably began more than a year ago it may qualify for the longest free agent courtship in MLB history. The quasi-public negotiations have hit all the classic marks:

Nats suggest that their obvious second base vacancy could be filled by Cristian Guzman;
Hudson expresses guarded interest;
A 2-year offer at a "reasonable" rate is rumored;
Ridiculously inflated salary demands ($9M/yr) are leaked by one side or the other;
Nats respond, "Hey, look over there at Adam Kennedy!";
Tony Plush escalates his O-Dawg lobbying campaign;
Mutual interest is reiterated and deadlines are hinted at.

The deal may or may not get done, but the consensus seems to be that Hudson represents the "best" remaining free agent option for the Nats, so it's worth taking a look at the guy. At 32 years old Orlando's value is pretty well established. He's an above-average offensive second baseman, but Hudson's slick-fielding days are behind him. He was below average by most metrics in 2008 and 2009 and hasn't been truly great since his last season as a Blue Jay in '05.

Hudson's acquisition would push Guzman back to shortstop, where believe it or not he's basically an average defender when he's healthy, but a Guzman-Hudson-Dunn infield would leave newly-minted Gold Glover Ryan Zimmerman with a lot of ground to cover, and Nats fans should probably prepare themselves for a summer of bloops up the middle and bleeders into short right field. That said, that defensive infield could certainly be better than the Dunn-Guzman-Desmond alternative, and having Hudson on board would give Jim Riggleman and Mike Rizzo both security and flexibility.

As to the question of what sort of contract Hudson deserves, his reported demands aren't actually too far off his projected value. Orlando's consistently been worth 2-3 wins above replacement for the last 5 seasons and there's no particular reason to expect him to hit the wall in 2010. A $9M contract would pay between $3-4.5M per win, a fair value. Of course, Hudson's almost certainly not going to get $9M (certainly not from the Nats), even in a heavily incentivized deal, so it's fair to expect some value from whatever offer he does accept.

The rumored second year? Guzman is likely gone when his contract is up. (*sob*) The organization's middle infield talent pipeline is pretty well empty until you get to Danny Espinosa and Jeff Kobernus in the low minors, well... someone's got to play second in 2011. Like the second year of the Jason Marquis deal, who exactly would the O-Dawg be blocking?

DC Doesn't Need A(nother) Kennedy

2010-01-13T22:02:00.001-05:00

As it stands Cristian Guzman is the 2010 Opening Day second baseman for your Washington Nationals. If they can't reel in Orlando Hudson (one year too late) to play second, Plan B appears to be infielder Adam Kennedy. I'm sure Adam's a swell fella, loves puppies and rainbows and all that, but no matter how you feel about Cristian Guzman, Adam Kennedy's got no business playing in D.C. in 2010.

Over at his cleverly moniker-ed Nationals Baseball blog Harper makes the case that Kennedy probably won't be so bad. A (slightly) better bat than Guzman, and a glove that appears to fluctuate wildly between above average and terrible. But is that really a combination you need to shell out free agent money for?

Cristian Guzman will occupy one middle infield postion, that's a given. With that in mind, there are two good reasons for the Nats to sign an infielder: to upgrade the offense or to upgrade the defense (or ideally both, but that doesn't look to be a realistic option.) Hudson would be an offensive plus, but a Hudson/Guzman defensive infield wouldn't do the pitching staff any favors. Kennedy might be a defensive improvement but carrying both his bat and Guzman's would be a real offensive hindrance.

On the excellent Fangraphs site Dave Cameron has a thoughtful article from a few months back about the relative merits of moving Guzman from shortstop to second. For the moment the Nats seem fixated on adding a second baseman, which would keep Guzman at short and Ian Desmond on the bench. There's nothing wrong with this plan, so long as it adds real value to the team rather than just shuffling deck chairs on the S.S. Natanic.

Could Have? Yes. Should Have?...

2010-01-11T00:25:00.003-05:00

Now that the details of Aroldis Chapman's $30M deal with the Cincinnati Reds are beginning to firm up, (h/t to MLBTradeRumors) we can say with some confidence that it's a contract the Washington Nationals could have matched. It's a five year major league deal with a sixth year player option, but the money is spread out over ten years and Chapman's 2010 salary is only $1M. Chapman's service time clock will start immediately.

In a vacuum, a $30M major league contract is a big commitment to a still relatively untested amateur free agent. However, given the structure of the deal (average annual value of $3M) it's hardly a crippling financial burden, even for a smaller market club like the Reds. Given that, and the deplorable state of the Nats pitching pipeline behind Stephen Strasburg, should the Nats have shelled out $30M for a Chapman lottery ticket?

Yes.

First, let's deal with the Strasburg comparisons. Stephen Strasburg is better than Aroldis Chapman. He is today and will be for the immediate future; there's no serious debate on this question. Chapman's value lies in projecting what he might do if and when he harnesses his considerable tools. The projections range from total bust through lights-out lefty closer all the way to staff ace, but they're just projections. So paying Chapman more (in total dollars) than Strasburg or anyone else on the team who didn't just win a Gold Glove could cause a perception problem both in the clubhouse and among the general public.

Still, $30M spread over ten years shouldn't hamstring a club like the Nationals, playing in a market like Washington, DC. There's a vast difference between bad contracts and crippling contracts. Nats fans are all too familiar with bad contracts (Guzman, Kearns, Young) but none of those contracts seriously impeded the team's ability to make other moves. Likewise if Chapman flames out or becomes a left-handed Fernando Rodney, Cincinnati's 10-year commitment would likely be seen as a bad deal, but not an albatross that would sink the franchise.

Perhaps more than any other team in baseball the Nats have the potential revenue and readily available roster space that could be combined in a creative deal like the Aroldis Chapman contract. Perhaps Mike Rizzo and the front office concluded that he just wasn't worth the joint financial and time commitment. Certainly the Yankees, Red Sox and Angels, who could have easily matched the Reds dollar for dollar, took a pass. The Nats have a bad track record of being shortchanged by Cincinnati GMs. Here's hoping it didn't just happen again.

Better Outrighted Than Garrotted, I Suppose

2010-01-08T18:58:00.003-05:00

After quietly smuggling reliever Matt Capps into town earlier this week the Nats made a place for him on the 40-man roster by outrighting lefty reliever Victor Garate to AAA Syracuse. Garate (aka the PTBNL in the Ronnie Belliard trade) had an abysmal 2 inning big league audition at the tail end of 2009, posting a 22.50 ERA, 4.00 WHIP (19 ERA+), so his demotion is not particularly surprising. What is surprising, and more than a little depressing, is that Garate was not necessarily an automatic choice. You could make a case that a half dozen players currently tying up spots on the roster are less valuable than Capps, and Matt (a righty closer on the rebound) isn’t all that valuable himself.

Jesse English, Ryan Mattheus, Atahualpa Severino and Doug Slaten come almost immediately to mind. You could add Luis Atilano and Marco Estrada without much argument, and I’d even be willing to entertain a discussion about the relative value of Brian Bruney and Matt Chico. There’s a lot of dead weight on the Nats roster, but the problem is that these guys are here because they’re better than any of the other options – they are the best major league-ready talent in the organization.

Of course, Drew Storen will be along to claim a roster spot soon enough. Some of the Nats failed starters (Mock, Balester, Chico) might mature into effective relief arms. Every year one or two non-roster invitees impress or resurrect their careers. No doubt several more of the fungible relievers above will be joining Victor Garate in Syracuse or Harrisburg. Still, it’s a measure of how very far the Nats have to go that even after making moves to shore up the relief corp there’s this much chaff on the roster.

The wasted space on the roster makes the team’s reported interest in veteran outfielder Randy Winn all the more difficult to understand. Winn’s a wizard with the glove, but he brings next to nothing with the bat. Assuming he’s not displacing starters Josh Willingham, Nyjer Morgan and Elijah Dukes, or reserve Willie Harris (no slouch with the leather himself), Winn would be competing with Justin Maxwell, Roger Bernadina and Mike Morse for that all-important 5th outfielder spot. Sure a Harris-Morgan-Winn defensive outfield would be impressive, but would it really be worth the collective 260/330/370 batting line?

A Slow Sports News Day in DC?

2010-01-06T22:05:00.003-05:00

New Redskins head something or other?

Wizards star point guard indefinitely something something?

Oh yeah, Nats officially introduce Matt Capps... remember him?

Timing may not be everything, but jeez... the team couldn't wait for Alex Ovechkin, Art Monk and John Thompson, Jr. to get in a 3-car pileup before scheduling this press conference? Capps is a signing Mike Rizzo can actually be proud of; if they wanted to smuggle someone in under cover of darkness they could have pushed back the Pudge Rodriguez presser.

That said, kudos to Nats media relations guru Mike Gazda for setting up a conference call between Capps and pasty, basement-dwelling internet scribes. Though NTP was not directly represented (the terms of our collective work release limit our access to unmonitored phone calls) the event is well-documented here, here, here and elsewhere across the Natmosphere.

Good on the team for allowing this kind of access to the unwashed masses, and good on Matt for enduring being the third (or fourth) biggest DC sports story of the day with evident good humor.

Rocket Bill's Burning Sensation

2010-01-01T13:28:00.004-05:00

If it's January 1st, it must be time for the first of many inane and wildly premature 2010 season previews. Leading off, 10 Burning Questions with MLB.com Nats beat writer "Rocket" Bill Ladson. As a bonus, we've given this column our patented "Ask an Idiot Blogger" treatment.

1. Will the Nationals play at least .500 baseball this season?

Rocket sez: "Too soon to tell. Ask again later."

We say: That's some quality Magic 8-Ball. But to actually answer the question, yes the Nats will go 2-2 over a four game stretch at some point in 2010, thereby playing .500 baseball. Wait, what... you mean .500 baseball for the season? Are you high?

2. Who is going to be the starting catcher?

Rocket sez: "Ivan Rodriguez."

We say: Boo! Bring back Wiki Gonzalez!

3. Will Elijah Dukes be the regular right fielder?

Rocket sez: "It's now or never."

We say: Define "regular". Seriously though, who's your alternative? Justin Maxwell? Willie Harris? It's Dukes' job until somebody better comes along.

4. Will Ian Desmond become the Opening Day shortop?

Rocket sez: "Answer unclear. Ask again when the Opening Day lineup is posted."

We say: Yes, unless Mike Rizzo can find someone better than Cristian Guzman to play second base. And he can, so the answer is no.

5. Between Stephen Strasburg and Drew Storen, who will have the biggest impact on the Nationals in 2010?

Rocket sez: "Storen."

We say: Strasburg's a starter, Storen's a closer, so between them would have to be a middle reliever, right? We'll go with Tyler Clippard and his fashion trend-setting goggles.

6. Will the Nationals trade Josh Willingham before the season starts?

Rocket sez: "All signs point to no."

We say: Maybe, and that's a significant upgrade from the Bowden regime when the answer would have been an unqualified, "Yes, for a scratched off lotto ticket and the fastest OF taken in the 1st round of the '99 amateur draft."

7. Will Nyjer Morgan's hand be 100 percent when Spring Training starts?

Rocket sez: "Yes. He's already hitting off a tee."

We say: No, he'll never play the viola again. And hitting off the tee is how Junior Spivey bit it.

8. Besides Marquis and John Lannan, who do you expect to be in the rotation in 2010?

Rocket sez: "Stammen, Detwiler and a PTBNL (pitcher to be named later)."

We say: If Rizzo stays in house, Stammen, Scott Olsen and J.D. Martin. If they bring in outside help, Stammen, John Smoltz and Livan. Yup, it's that bad.

9. Will Cristian Guzman play second base for Washington?

Rocket sez: "He will if Rizzo and Riggleman tell him to."

We say: Yes, unless Mike Rizzo can find someone better than Cristian Guzman to play second base. And he can, so the answer is no.

10. Who is the Nationals closer?

Rocket sez: "The survivor of the Bruney - Capps battle royale."

We say: Anybody but Kip Wells.

Josh Whitesell Goes Back To The Future

2009-12-28T20:18:00.012-05:00

Think back to 2007. Barbaro sired a line of champion glue bottles. The Nats were bad, but nowhere near as bad as they would become. And Josh Whitesell assumed a prestigious position within the Washington Nationals organization: the "Larry Broadway Memorial marginally-talented first baseman who's destined never to sniff the big leagues." Previous award winners included perennial "First Baseman of the Future" Larry Broadway and, well... pretty much just Larry.

Josh was all set to bridge the gap between failed prospects Broadway and Chris Marrero when things went sideways. Claimed off waivers by the Arizona Diamondbacks in early 2008 the unthinkable happened; Arizona gave Whitesell his ticket to the show. After some success with a 2008 cup of coffee Josh struggled with extended exposure in 2009. Non-tendered by the D-Backs, Whitesell is now back with the organization that drafted him, ready to resume his rightful place in the hierarchy.

Guardado Capps Off a Marquis Week

2009-12-27T09:28:00.004-05:00

Jason Marquis, Matt Capps and Eddie Guardado aren't going to carry the Washington Nationals to the playoffs in 2010. If Mike Rizzo rounds out the year by signing Orlando Hudson and John Smoltz to multiply Pudge Rodriguez's veteran-y goodness the Nats still won't be playing baseball in mid-October. Measured purely by that criteria the last week was a waste of $11M+. But that's dumb. By that measure teams like the Nats, Pirates, Royals, Astros, Orioles and Padres should just close up shop from October to February. No one trade or free agent signing is going to put any of these teams in contention in 2010, or 2011 for that matter.

If, on the other hand, the offseason is about improving your club, the Nats have had a very good week. Jason Marquis is no ace, but he'll give you 200 innings of league average pitching, sparing Nats fans from the 2010 version of the "Daniel Cabrera Experience." Matt Capps may not be the guy who'll make us all forget Chad Cordero, but I'll be perfectly happy to forget Julian Tavarez and Kip Wells. Eddie Guardado may not be Ron Villone... or maybe he is. Either way, a minor league contract with an invite to Spring Training is exactly the right way to go about finding your next designated "veteran lefty."

That's the important thing to keep in mind about this past week. It's less about the players than it is about the process. Marquis could have been Garland, or Piniero, or Sheets. For $15M over two years it's a signing that can only help stabilize the rotation. Is one year of a 26 year old closer with a career 119 ERA+ worth $3.5M? It is when your alternatives are Brian Bruney, Garrett Mock or the next Joel Hanrahan. Even if he's nothing more than a bridge to Drew Storen, what exactly is the downside to bringing Capps on board?

Rizzo's moves are encouraging because they don't assume that you have to sacrifice short-term improvement for long-term development, or vice versa. Somewhere between Jim Bowden's obsessive focus on the next five minutes and the analytic fascination with the next five years lies an approach that allows for building a winning team and a winning organization simultaneously. It's not yet clear that Rizzo or the Lerners are committed to this dual track approach (a strong bid for Aroldis Chapman would be nice evidence, Mike.) But I'm a Nats fan, so for the moment I'm clingling like grim death to any shred of hope that we might not have to endure two more seasons like the last two before we see that "first great Nationals team."

Christmas Garland?

2009-12-20T08:57:00.003-05:00

Ex-White Sox/Angels/D-Backs/Dodgers hurler Jon Garland is one of the ten (TEN?! - Does that include Oil Can Boyd?) free agents pitchers the Nats are eying this winter. Garland is apparently keeping company with guys like Jason Marquis, Joel Pineiro, Doug Davis and John Smoltz. (Seriously though, if they sign Smoltz don't they at least owe Dennis Boyd a tryout?)

Garland's career numbers are the very definition of unspectacular. A 104 ERA+, a K/BB ratio of 1.6; he's a lot like a right-handed John Lannan. On the plus side he's just 30 and can be predictably projected for 200 innings pitched with an ERA in the mid-fours. For the 2010 Washington Nationals those are #2 starter numbers.

Garland wants three years, the Nats are apparently offering two. I'd be okay with something in the 2 year/$15M or 3 yr/$20M dollar range. The third year doesn't bother me as much as it does other folks because honestly, beyond Strasburg and (maybe) Lannan, who are you penciling in to the 2012 Nationals rotation that's definitely going to improve on a 33-year old Jon Garland?

That said, Garland's not a marked improvement on any of the half dozen other mid-rotation innings eaters still on the maket, so if he want's $10M a year he's been hitting the egg nog a bit early. But he doesn't have to be a "steal" for the Nats to make out well. That Jon Garland would be the biggest free agent pitcher signing in the history of the Washington Nationals tells you pretty much all you need to know about the state of the pitching staff. He just has to offer some stability to the rotation beyond Lannan and (hopefully) Strasburg and he's worth any reasonable price.

An In-Speier-ed Pickup

2009-12-12T07:54:00.003-05:00

H/T to MLB Trade Rumors for this minor AP item: The Nats signed former Rockies reliever Ryan Speier to a split minor league deal worth up to $425K. Speier is another reliever Rizzo should be familiar with from his time in the NL West. The 30 year old righty has solid career numbers, though he dealt with some injuries in 2009. He pitched better away from Coors (who doesn't?) but still has an impressive ability to keep the ball in the park. Assuming he's healthy he could probably replace Jason Bergmann as the designated right-handed reliever to face right-handed batters.

More important, Speier is a local guy, product of West Springfield High (Go Spartans!) and Radford University (Go Herpes!). Like former Nats SP "Irish Mike" O'Connor and current reliever Josh Wilkie, (George Washington University alums) Speier brings some much needed home cooking to the DC baseball scene. Major league baseball teams should have a lock on local talent. The Braves perfected the art of scouting Georgia and have reaped the rewards with players like Brian McCann and Jason Heyward.

The Nats have publicly committed to rebuilding scholastic and amateur baseball programs in Washington, DC and that's a great start, but you don't have to look any farther than franchise cornerstone Ryan Zimmerman to appreciate that Virginia has a thriving baseball culture that has produced players like David Wright, Mark Reynolds and the Upton brothers. The Braves, Mets and Orioles, through a combination of geographic proximity and minor league affiliations already have ties to baseball in Virginia. Signing a 30 year old reliever to a minor league deal isn't going to be the key that unlocks the Commonwealth's storehouse of baseball talent for the Nationals, but it's a start.

Not All Motion Is Progress

2009-12-07T23:23:00.003-05:00

Mike Rizzo is (allegedly) not Jim Bowden. This offseason has been marked by a refreshing lack of impolitic outbursts, leather pants and dumpster-diving for toolsy outfielders. Until today you could also have said that Rizzo displayed a distinctly un-Trader Jim knack for not overvaluing replacement level relief pitching. Until today.

Let's be clear up front: Rizzo "overpaid" by sending the top pick in the Rule 5 draft to New York for reliever Brian Bruney. Bruney has a track record, and there's some value to that. Any baseball geek worth his Bill James Abstract will tell you that relief pitching is the most unstable, readily replaceable component of a major league roster. Any Nats fan that lived through last April, May and June will reply that yes, you can cobble together a relief corps from rookies, retreads and failed prospects, but it can take a grueling half season or more to get the mix right.

What worries me is Rizzo's increasingly evident preference for the known quantity over the raw talent. Think Nyjer Morgan for Lastings Milledge. The Nats got the better player, but the Pirates got the talent. Hiring a manager like Jim Riggleman is a textbook case for valuing track record over potential. In terms of today's deal, ex-Diamondback Brian Bruney's an established, hard-throwing, middle-inning reliever with undistinguished peripheral numbers. You don't have to uncover the Rule 5 draft's next Johan Santana, or even the next Joakim Soria, to get a younger, better player who'll be under club control for longer than Bruney. The next Luis Ayala would be a fine return for that number one pick.

As hot stove kickoffs go this deal was a resounding "Meh." It's tough to get either enthused or outraged about a 28-year old middle reliever, especially when he might not be any better than the guy who was cut to make room for him. On the other hand, I share FJB's hope that we're not merely in the beginning phase of replacing Bowden's CinciNationals with Rizzo's DiamondNats.

Speaking of which, doesn't signing a well-past-his prime Pudge Rodriguez to a TWO YEAR deal seem, well... Bowdenesque?

Non-News Is Good News

2009-12-01T23:25:00.004-05:00

On the day that legitimately competitive baseball clubs were deciding whether to offer arbitration to their talented free agents, the only news out of NatsTown is that the team will not be handing out cash to the veteran free agent dreck that clogged last year's roster. Josh Bard, Livan Hernandez, Austin Kearns, Ron Villone and Dmitri Young will all be faced with the unenviable task of latching on with a club more desperate for "baseball players" than the 2009 Washington Nationals.

As "news" goes, this is right up there with the shocking revelations, reported first here on Nats Triple Play, that Nats pitchers will not be pitching underhand next season and the corpse of Honus Wagner will not be your 2010 Opening Day shortstop. Note that the Honus Wagner "story" is still subject to confirmation.

As to whether the team will be handing out cash to the slightly younger dreck that clogged last year's roster, Mike Rizzo has until December 12th to make that call. On arbitration questions NTP mostly lines up with fellow Natmospherians Brian at NFA and Steven at FJB (3-letter acronyms: It's what's hip!)

For nuanced analysis, read them. Here's my take:

Absolutely offer arbitration to: Jesus Flores (Duh) and Josh Willingham (Double Duh.)

Probably should offer arbitration to: Sean Burnett (All my kids are learning to pitch lefty from birth, if not before.)

I'm fine either way: Jason Bergmann (He can swing from bullpen to rotation, he won't cost too much and he's got tenure with the franchise; but he gives up too many walks and gopher balls.)

Don't offer arbitration to: Saul Rivera (look up "fungible") and Wil Nieves (Who?)

Dear God, please don't offer arbitration to: Mike MacDougal (Say you find $100 at the departure terminal at McCarran Airport in Las Vegas. You pocket the money and go. You do not conclude that you're on a "hot streak" and extend your trip to return to the casinos. Trust me on this one.)

Damn the torpedoes, offer arbitration to: Scott Olsen (This is where I part ways with Brian and Steven. I'm a little more optimistic about Olsen's rebound potential and a little less sanguine about the likelihood of replacing that potential on the open market. I'd lump Olsen in with the other second-tier starting pitchers recovering from injury and try to sign him to a comparable deal. Even an arbitration loss should (should) have a negligible impact on the 2010 payroll.)

That frees up three spots on the 40-man roster. You know who'd look good in those spots? Orlando Hudson, Rich Harden and the top pick in the Rule 5 draft. Get to work, Rizzo.

Chico Ain't The Man

2009-11-18T16:41:00.003-05:00

Who knew that the toughest beat in DC wasn't the White House or the Pentagon, but Nationals Park? Just two years after Barry Svrluga (of sainted memory) left for the apparently more relaxing Redskins beat, WaPo Nats beat writer Aaron "Chico" Harlan is abandoning ship. Per the Post's memo obtained by FishbowlDC:

After two very long seasons doing an outstanding job covering the Washington Nationals, Chico Harlan is eager for a new challenge at the Post, and a well-deserved one. We do not fault Chico for having failed to bring winning baseball to the District. In fact, he now joins a long list of baseball writers who have come up short in that regard. What this means is that we are looking for a new reporter to cover the Nats.

Now, some would argue that the Post has been, or should have been, looking for a new reporter to cover the Nats from the day Harlan started. He certainly didn't do himself any favors with his revelation to the Washingtonian that he doesn't particularly care for sports and would rather be a food writer, but he gets a pass from me.

As bloggers we've struggled (and failed) to find something interesting and relevant to say about the Washington Nationals that wasn't just long strings of profanity off and on for five years now. We've done it without deadlines, endless travel and dealing with reluctant players, coaches and executives, all while under pressure to break "news". As much as I love watching and writing about Nats baseball, I can't imagine doing Chico Harlan's job half as well as he did.

Bon appetit Chico. Nationals Journal's loss is the Food section's gain.

More on Riggleman's Qualifications

2009-11-15T19:30:00.002-05:00

Bill Ladson and his hefty (mail) sack chime in on Jim Riggleman's installation as manager:

What did you think about the Nationals making Jim Riggleman the permanent manager?
-- Charlie B., Washington

It was a great move [...] I loved the way Riggleman gives opponents the element of surprise -- hit and run with Ryan Zimmerman at the plate, a surprise bunt, squeeze plays and stealing bases.

Ah yes, taking the bat out of your Silver Slugger-winning third baseman's hands by making him swing at slop so you can put the guy at first in motion. Daring! Unorthodox! Dumb! And the surprise bunt, the Spanish Inquisition of baseball plays!

I don't know about you, but after this I'm psyched for the 2010 edition of The Elements of Surprise by William Ladson and James Riggleman. No one, and I mean no one is going to see that Josh Willingham suicide squeeze on Opening Day coming!

Did The Best 'man Win?

2009-11-14T18:33:00.005-05:00

This has been a good news/bad news week on the Nats front. Ryan Zimmerman raking in the overdue hardware: good news. Jim Riggleman losing his interim tag: bad news. The Nats looking to upgrade the middle infield: good news. Moving Guz to second and calling that an upgrade: bad news.

In the warm immediate afterglow of Zimmerman's Silver & Gold tour I'm willing to overlook the fact that the Gold Glove is a fatally flawed award too often given to a well-known offensive talent from a medium-to-large market who's not a total butcher with the leather. I'd prefer a genuine acknowledgement that Zimm is a unique defensive talent, but that's the way the game is played. The Silver Slugger? Well, Soriano got one for his 40-40-40 season in 2006, so it must be some measure of offensive prowess. Good on Ryan for coupling his usual defensive brilliance with a bounce-back offensive campaign.

Now, about Riggleman. I said in the last post that I was prepared to rescind my positive commentary on the nascent Kasten-Rizzo regime if Interim Jim got the full-time gig. Upon reflection I'm not prepared to go quite that far... yet, but I'm not happy about the managerial pick. Others have spilled many bytes comparing Jim Riggleman to Bobby Valentine and ultimately coming to a "six of one/half dozen of the other" conclusion. I won't dispute that. My gripe is almost entirely with the selection process. I can't shake the feeling that the dice were loaded for Riggleman from the day he took over as Manny Acta's bench coach.

In my mind the search for a new manager should start with a clean slate. The goal should be to find the best person to manage the 2010 Washington Nationals. In-house candidates are fine, but if you want me to believe that the best man to take the helm is the guy who was second in command of the previous shipwreck you're going to need some pretty substantial supporting evidence. Jim Riggleman's key qualifications seem to be that he's managed before, he knows the personnel and he's willing to work for what the Lerners are willing to pay.

I'll grant that there's something to the prior manager experience argument, just as there is a benefit to knowing the ropes of any job. But managing before isn't synonymous with managing well, or you probably wouldn't be in the market for a new position. Just recycling the same 30 -35 guys over and over more or less guarantees you're never going to uncover new talent.

Knowing the personnel is definitely a plus; Riggleman's already had his learning curve. But again, if that's a major qualification you're pretty much limiting your applicant pool to the bench coach, the field coaches and one or two minor league skippers. Learning new players is something every manager has to do, sometimes on the fly in the heat of a late season pennant race. Don't you want some evidence that your guy has that skill too?

Finally, the $64,000 question. Is Jim Riggleman getting paid more than $64,000 to manage the Nats this year? We'll never know. Both he and his agent, the excellently monikered Burton Rocks, have been sworn to secrecy. C'mon Jim, D.C.'s a company town, everybody knows what everybody makes, so let's have it. We're you really the best man for the job, or just the most readily available?

I suppose it's possible that Steve Jobs' executive assistant is in the best position to take over Apple when he retires. I'll even allow for the slight possibility that Joe Biden is the second most qualified person in the United States to be President. But the idea that the best manager for the 2010 Washington Nationals, better than Bobby V, Eric Wedge, Bob Melvin, Tim Foli and an unknown cast of dozens, just happened to be riding shotgun for Manny Acta the whole time? Sorry, I don't buy it.

Dave & Nate Take On: The Post-Post Season

2009-11-05T12:40:00.004-05:00

In this episode, Dave and Nate take on… Fan fatigue, the vindication of Manny Acta and why Dan Snyder is the best thing never to happen to the Nats.

Nate: If it’s November, it must be time to drag ourselves out of a blogging coma.

Dave: So I’ve been rather quiet this year. I’ve been so quiet I can’t even really remember the last time I blogged. Nate has pretty much done the bulk of the writing here, and even he couldn’t pull something out for September or October… making the blog much like the team. (rimshot) It’s been incredibly hard to work up enthusiasm this year. Thanks to MLB’s text messaging service I’ve felt the pain of 103 text messages on my phone telling me of another loss, and only 59 times did that “bing” mean there was a win. Let’s recap:

We couldn’t bring ourselves to buy season tickets this year, which turned out to be the best non-investment of the year.

Nate: Second best, to me not renewing my ‘Skins tix, but more on that later.

Dave: Fair enough. Point is, there wasn’t a game we wanted to see that we couldn’t just buy tickets for, and usually we ended up with better seats to boot. This also meant we went to a lot LESS games, because we weren’t obligated to be there two or three times a week. Frankly, I don’t see us renewing next year either - Nats season tickets are nobody’s idea of a good deal right now.

The gameday experience at Nats Park is still a great time, but now even more for the stadium than the game. I do love getting a Half Smoke All The Way, and we had a pretty great rainout night just watching the rain fall and stuffing our faces with food and beer. Funny, the best night there was a night they didn’t play….

Nate: Because just like the lottery, you can’t lose when you don’t play. But let’s put the past in the past and never speak of the 2009 season ever again. Certainly one of the key figures from that forgettable period in Nationals history is doing a good job of moving on… new Cleveland Indians manager Manny Acta. Am I crazy for eagerly anticipating Major League 4? I’m not going to harp on how Manny got a raw deal in DC, but the Indians sure snapped him up quick, didn’t they?

Dave: They did. My back of the napkin analysis was that Manny got a bum deal. Trader Jim left Manny with a collection of pieces that weren’t designed to fit, and it shouldn’t be a surprise they didn’t work well together. (I’ll leave the comparisons to Jim Zorn to Nate.) Removing Manny didn’t make the team noticeably better. I’m a fan of Manny’s, and will do a little of the harping for Nate. As for Major League 4, I didn’t even know there was a version three.

Speaking of Zorn, I think the Lerner family is clearly benefiting from the fact that Dan Snyder is taking all the heat for being the worst owner in Washington, much less in all of sports. Being cheap isn’t half the crime that being evil is. Watching the Skins implode has taken the pressure off the Nats for being the worst team around. Both stink, but the Redskins have managed to take the smell to the national stage and come off looking absolutely ridiculous. At least the Lerners aren’t using security to take down fans with signs or suing their ticket holders. But maybe it was smart to drop those Nats tickets before they got any ideas.

Nate: Uncle Ted and the boys may be indifferent to the product on the field, but at least they aren’t actively undermining the coaches and antagonizing the fans on a daily basis, all while wringing every last nickel out of 40 years of accumulated goodwill. One thing the Lerners seem to have figured out, albeit belatedly, is that the business of sports is different from the business of business. Stan Kasten and Mike Rizzo appear to have been given more latitude to run the baseball side of the franchise. It’s the Kasten & Rizzo Show now, and from here on the results will speak for themselves. Contrast the Redskins, where accountability seems entirely absent, and the Nationals almost look like a competent organization. Dan Snyder, the gift that keeps on giving.

(I reserve the right to take everything I just wrote back if Jim Riggleman gets the permanent managerial gig for 2010.)

Mike Rizzo's To-Do List

2009-08-20T08:55:00.002-04:00

1. Attend introductory press conference. Blink F-U-E-D-E-S in morse code for the camera.

2. Purchase leather pants, Segway.

3. Relocate Dominican Baseball Academy to Montego Bay, Jamaica. Spend next two months establishing "international presence" in Barbados, Ibiza, Phuket, Tahiti.

4. Promote Moose Stubing to Special Assistant to the GM for Silly Names. Apologize for displacing Squire Galbreath.

5. Lay healing hands on Jordan Zimmermann.

Thanks For Strasburg, Now Beat It

2009-08-19T00:04:00.004-04:00

If this report is accurate, gratitude ain't what it used to be. That said, whether Mike Rizzo has earned the Washington Nationals GM job is open to debate, and this quote is pretty silly:

“If they let Mike go now, they really will have some explaining to do,” one Rizzo loyalist said Tuesday. “He changed the face of the club, got some of the bad apples out.”

Why exactly would they have some explaining to do? Mike Rizzo signed players, executed trades, negotiated contracts... pretty much what you'd expect a GM, interim or otherwise, to do. As for changing the face of the club, Morgan and Burnett in, Johnson, Milledge, Hanrahan, Beimel and Hernandez out is less like a facelift than like buying a new shade of lipstick.

Rizzo got a middling at best return for Nick Johnson, and may have sold short on Milledge at the nadir of his value. He didn't shed the Kearns or Guzman contracts, despite having opportunities to do so. Yes the Nats signed Strasburg, but they didn't stretch to sign any talent in the lower rounds. The international scouting and player development operations are still underwhelming. Is it unfair to saddle Mike Rizzo for responsibilty for all of this? Perhaps, but it comes with the job of major league general manager.

A competent GM may look like a revelation to the Nats, but competence is a baseline, not an aspirational goal.

(h/t MLB Trade Rumors)

Let's Do This Again Next Year

2009-08-18T10:14:00.002-04:00

Well, that was fun! Stan, you really must bring that delightful 7 Layer Dip again. Scott, those pecan turtles were simply sinful. Mike... well, I'm sure your invitation is in the mail. We'll put you down for sodas and ice. Oh and Scott, be sure to bring your little friend Bryce next year. He can play in the Playstation Zone while the grown-ups talk.

Today is a great day for the Nationals franchise, marred only slightly by the knowledge that this is exactly what competent organizations are supposed to do as a matter of course. Draft player, sign player, repeat. The club's spotty record with this relatively straightforward process added some unnecessary heartburn to an already dramatic event. Largely overlooked in the final minutes of the Strasburg Watch was the encouraging signing of 12th round pick Nathan Karns, a pitcher out of Texas Tech. Must have been an overslot deal to get done so late.

So what's next?

Having a real, fully-empowered GM would be nice. If this wasn't Mike Rizzo's dress rehearsal, then there's nothing he can do to earn the job in DC. Maybe that's for the best. Maybe not. Either way, with Strasburg safely in the fold, this issue needs resolving pronto.

And what about Slingin' Stephen? He's out of baseball shape, and has 100+ innings pitched already this season. Maybe he makes a Ross Detwiler-esque cameo in September, but look how well that worked out for Ross. More likely, the Nats newest asset will get to experience Arizona in the fall. I'm sure Brian Oliver's always wanted to see Peoria.

And finally, last and least, the remaining 44 games of the 2009 season, aka "The Bryce Harper Derby". Washington holds a shrinking lead over Kansas City, with Pittsburgh and San Diego also factoring into the chase for the worst record. With Mike Morse called up to replace the mercifully DFA'd Logan Kensing, Ian Desmond and Clint Everts are really the only September call-ups of interest. Unless of course you have some perverse interest in seeing Daryle Ward back in DC. Not that there's anything wrong with that.

The Final Countdown

2009-08-17T10:18:00.004-04:00

Nice of MLB to schedule an off day today. It's not as though Nats fan could use a distraction in the next few hours. By 12:01 tomorrow morning Washington will have concrete evidence that the franchise has either reached a turning point or that this generation of fans is wasting its time on the club. The stakes really are that high.

Forget Strasburg, Boras, Kasten, Rizzo, MLB, the players' union, the draft, the collective bargaining agreement and the future of sports in America. These next hours are about the Nationals and their fans. Plain and simple. Either the ownership, management and front office staff will step up and commit to making the Nationals competitive, or they will tacitly admit that they are perfectly happy to settle for a publicly funded stadium, steady media and merchandising profits and exclusive membership in the baseball owners club. Winning? Nice if it should happen, but secondary to protecting baseball's status quo.

Who the hell appointed the Nationals guardians of the best interests of baseball? Giving Strasburg $12M, $20M or $50M is "bad for baseball"? Says who? It might be bad for the owners, the commissioner, the league. Hell it might even be bad for the players and future draft picks if MLB institutes a salary cap and a hard slotting system. But bad for baseball? Baseball survived the Black Sox, the Negro Leagues, World War II, franchise relocation, Pete Rose, Barry Bonds and a tied All-Star Game. Baseball thrives everyday in dirt lots, American Legion fields and high schools and colleges all over the world. Stephen Strasburg could blow out his arm the day after signing or win 300 MLB games and baseball wouldn't change one iota.

I don't root for MLB, Bud Selig or the Lerners' financial portfolio. Signing Stephen Strasburg would be good for the Nationals. Having the best young pitcher in the game pitching in DC, NY and LA rather than Ft. Worth would be good for Major League Baseball. Having kids in Oakton, Anacostia or Silver Spring dream of growing up to be the next Stephen Strasburg would be good for baseball. Everyone agrees that Strasburg is a special talent. Why should I care whether the price of that talent is "record-breaking", "astronomical" or "outrageous"?

The Nationals have done nothing to earn the benefit of the doubt. Sure, they were "in" on Mark Teixeira, but at the end of the day they didn't get it done. Likewise with Aaron Crow. They negotiated, but when the clock struck midnight they were left holding a pumpkin. This year, the team has gone overslot to sign not one of their draft picks. Stephen Strasburg is not only all the eggs, he's the basket too.

In conclusion, a special word to Rob Dibble: "You sir, are an asshat." Quoth the Nasty Boy:

"And by the way, if you're the Lerners and Stan Kasten, you can't worry about what the bloggers and the media think of you. You can't bankrupt yourself and the system for one player."

News flash Dibbs. Bloggers are fans. I know for a fact that most Nats bloggers are also ticketholders. Which makes them paying customers. And if the Lerners and Stan Kasten are in the business of ignoring their customers now, DC residents probably have a right to be slightly put out at the $600M life-size chess board they built for King Teddy and the royal court. And, as an aside, if signing Strasburg is going to bankrupt the franchise or the "system" then wasn't the whole Teixeira negotiation (involving tens of millions more dollars over many more years) just a sham? What do you know that we don't, Rob?

For the next 12 hours, the clock is ticking on much more than just the Strasburg negotiations.

Cui bono?

2009-08-11T07:45:00.002-04:00

There's no upside for the Nats in Jordan Zimmermann's impending Tommy John surgery. It's all well and good for Mike Rizzo to talk about success rates and pitchers coming back stronger, but the bottom line is: The Nats just lost a key piece of their developmental puzzle for at least one year.

This is why baseball fans should have TINSTAAPP tattooed on their foreheads (preferably backwards, so as to be easily readable in the mirror.) This is why you trade Nick Johnson for Aaron Thompson and draft two pitchers for every position player. Baseball is a numbers game, in every sense of the word. From the statistics that measure accomplishment to the attrition that occurs at every level from little league to the majors.

The Nats did everything with Zimmermann that you're supposed to do with a young pitcher. They brought him along slowly, limited his innings, monitored his pitch counts and shut him down at the first sign of trouble. And his elbow exploded like a cheap firework anyway. It's a funny old world, innit?

The Nats don't benefit, and J-Z certainly doesn't, but this turn of events provides leverage to at least two pitchers in the Nats orbit. The first, obviously, is Stephen Strasburg. A failure to sign Strasburg, coming within a week of losing Zimmermann, would be a body blow to a franchise desperately seeking to claw its way out of national joke status. The second, less obvious beneficiary is FJB-nemesis Scott Olsen.

The much-maligned Olsen is likewise recovering from surgery, and there has been some suggestion that he will be non-tendered this offseason to avoid arbitration. Now that our pitching depth just got considerably shallower, Olsen's odds of securing a return engagement have improved dramatically. Hard as it may be to believe, when your alternatives are Stammen, Mock, Martin, Balester, Martis and an unknown cast of dozens, Olsen's not a bad bulwark.

Folks, that's a sad commentary on the state of the franchise's pitching 5 years in. Cui Bono? Nobody.

Shipping Up to Boston

2009-08-10T09:50:00.003-04:00

I'm shortstop Gooz
And I've paid my dues
My declining range
Is but a clever ruse

I might be shipping up to Boston
Could be shipping off to Boston
Possibly shipping out to Boston
To mostly rave reviews.

- with profuse apologies to Woody Guthrie

To waive or not to waive, that is the question. Whether 'tis nobler in the infield to suffer the boots and bleeders of uncertain defense; or to take action against a bloated contract, and trade your starting shortstop to the Red Sox. Nationals Journal briefly lays out the options:

Let Boston take him, and consider the $8M in salary relief a gift.
Try to work out a trade and at least get something for Guzman
Pull him back from waivers and keep him at least through the end of the season.

Reaction to the possibility of losing the Guz has ranged from unbridled enthusiasm to unadulterated glee. In this reading, Guzman's $8M contract next season is an albatross that will drag down the franchise and preclude everything from the Strasburg signing to the pursuit of a second baseman and/or closer in the offseason.

It's true that Guzman has the second largest contract on the team, behind Adam Dunn. But the Nationals' 2009 Opening Day payroll was $60M, hardly an onnerous burden, and more that $20M will be coming off that total with the subtraction of Johnson, Young, Kearns, Cabrera, Biemel, Belliard and several others. Some of that money will get eaten up in arbitration raises, particularly for Josh Willingham, but the suggestion that Guzman's salary could prevent the team from doing anything it needed to do is laughable.

Cristian Guzman is a slightly below average shortstop and a streaky hitter who doesn't walk and needs a .300 batting average to maintain his offensive value. It's also true that he's had that .300+ average for two and a half seasons now. Complicating the issue is the question of who replaces Guzie at short. Presumably the first choice would be the Attorney General, with Belliard getting the bulk of the time at 2B and Mike Morse or Ian Desmond called up for infield depth. If Belliard goes to second full time the team will also need a defensive replacement for Dunn at first base.

If there's a deal to be made for Guzman that returns something of value to DC, Rizzo should jump on it. Joe Posnanski has a theory that when dealing with a team like the Yankees or the Red Sox using their "must win now" mentality against them can be a valuable bargaining chip. That said, letting Cristian go for mere "salary relief" isn't the best interest of the Nationals in the short or long-term.

Zimmermann to Andrews to Strasburg

2009-08-09T09:21:00.002-04:00

You may not know this, but the NTP gang has been inconspicuously absent from Nationals Park since the Randy Johnson rainout of June 3, 2009. Two plus months of not subjecting ourselves to live Nats baseball. Well, that all ended this weekend. On Friday NTP Dave was in attendance to see the fellers take their sixth straight game (with an able assist from the first base ump.)

Last night I journeyed down SoCap in search of bobbleheads and managed to snag a win in the bargain. Seven in a row is seven in a row, but all is not sunshine and lollipops for the Nationals. Garrett Mock was effective, but he pitched worse than his final line and there's no starting pitching relief on the horizon. John Smoltz, anyone?

The latest news on Jordan Zimmermann only compounds the problem. In case you've somehow missed the wailing and gnashing of teeth emanating from across the Natmosphere, J-Z's most recent MRI "caused concern" with the Nats crack (cracked? quack?) medical team. This sparked a referral to Dr. James Andrews, which "caused concern" among Nats fans. Now, no visit with Dr. Andrews is ever just a pleasant social call, but there's no sense organizing the mass suicides until Zim'nn's surgery is actually a "complete success and he should be ready for Spring Training." In the meantime I'm more interested in the impact of this news on the Strasburg negotiations.

Buster Olney, based on what appears to be nothing at all, is reporting that "real doubts are beginning to emerge that the Nats will be able to sign Stephen Strasburg." First of all, this is just lousy sentence construction, either by B.O. or MLB Trade Rumors. I can't believe anyone doubts that the Nats are able to sign Strasburg, the only question is whether they're willing to meet his price. "Nats unwilling to sign Strasburg" would be a better encapsulation. But I digress..

There are two potential lessons to be drawn from Jordan Zimmermann's current predicament that could impact the Strasburg signing in very different ways.

Lesson #1: Talented young team-controlled starting pitching is a commodity of unparalleled value, and the more of it you have the better off you are.

Lesson #2: Even the best pitchers are one elbow twinge away from a potentially career-altering visit with James Andrews.

Taking lesson one to heart would suggest that the Nats should pay the freight for the most talented amateur pitcher of the decade and hope for the best. Heeding lesson two would cause the team to avoid committing record setting sums of money a twenty one-year old right arm, no matter what its pedigree. The next eight days just got a little more interesting.

Trade Veloz-ity

2009-08-06T12:54:00.003-04:00

The 2009 Mike Rizzo Low-Budget Housecleaning Tour rolls on. The Nats traded 2B Anderson Hernandez back to the Mets for A-ball 2B Greg Veloz. John Sickels ranked the 21 year-old Veloz the 17th-best Mets prospect coming into 2009, and Baseball America placed him in the organization's top 25. A rough year has probably dimmed Veloz's prospect luster somewhat, but he's a solid return for two months of Anderson Hernandez on a going-nowhere Mets team.

Hernandez, you'll recall, was originally acquired from the Mets for Luis Ayala (of sainted memory.) While it would have been nice to persuade Omar Minaya of the absolute necessity of acquiring Ronnie Belliard, shipping out the playing time deficient Hernandez is an acceptable Plan B. Frankly, anything the Nats can do to ensure Omar Minaya's continued employment in the Mets front office, they should do.

On the Nats end, this is exactly the type of deal Rizzo should be making in bulk. Hernandez lost out to the Attorney General in the battle of underwhelming utility infielders, Belly-yard is being showcased for a post-deadline trade and Mike Morse is tearing up Triple-A. The Nationals, meanwhile, are back in the market for a full-time second sacker (along with a closer, veteran starter, and everything else they were looking for last season.)

Veloz may never amount to anything (the odds are much worse than 50/50) but for the Nats, neither would Hernandez. The Johnson and Beimel trades were "must" deals. Today was a "should" deal. Hopefully the first of many.

UPDATE: This is not the deal I had in mind. Per Nationals Farm Authority (via teh Tweeter) Nats acquire Norris Hopper and Daryle Ward from the White Sox for cash. First reaction: Hopper makes sense as AAA outfield depth, Ward makes sense only if Belliard is getting traded/DFA'd in the next 20 minutes. Second reaction: "Holy $#&%, the Lerners are handing out cash! Get thee to the ballpark, pronto."

Two Debuts

2009-08-05T17:20:00.005-04:00

In the wake of the Misson: Improbable-style comeback over the Fish last night the Natmosphere is buzzing over the disabling of Austin Kearns, which you can plausibly argue actually occurred sometime in mid-2008, and the resulting promotion of 29-year old rookie outfielder Jorge Padilla. I'd expect the Rick Short name-checking to come fast and furious, but only Charlie Slowes has been with the franchise long enough to make the reference authentic. Nationals Journal has the background on Padilla.

Jorge, while certainly no Rick Short, is a true baseball feel-good story, and it's always nice to see an outstanding AAA season rewarded. But Padilla won't be anything more than a bench bat for the Nats. He doesn't really have the power to hold down a major league corner outfield slot or the speed to spell Morgan in center. He's old friend (and current Syracuse farmhand) Mike Vento with a better batting eye.

The debut to watch, or listen to, tonight will be 120 miles north of Nationals Park, where new Harrisburg Senator Aaron Thompson takes on Binghamton in his Nationals organization debut. Thompson was the Nats return on the last second deadline deal that sent Nick Johnson to Florida. The Marlins first round selection in the 2005 draft, the 22 year-old put up a 4.11 ERA for AA Jacksonville, with uninspiring peripherals. John Sickels had this to say about the man he ranked Florida's 15th best prospect in 2009:

"I don’t like the way his Double-A numbers slipped and I worry about health."

Damning with faint criticism. I'll be rooting for Padilla over the next two months, but for this organization to make real progress, I'll be praying for Aaron Thompson.